Strategic Outlook for Autonomous Heavy-duty Trucks

Autonomous Truck Capabilities to First Appear in the Form of Truck Platooning by 2022

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This research service analyzes the European and North American heavy-duty autonomous truck market. It includes an assessment of market dynamics, including industry challenges; market and technology trends, drivers and restraints, and forecasts; and Mega Trend implications. Forecasts will examine the feasibility of autonomous trucks in the trucking industry with regard to business models, freight logistics, driver solutions, and estimated timelines. Insights about the competitive environment of leading market participants (original equipment manufacturers and Tier I suppliers) are included. The study period is from 2014 to 2025, with an outlook to 2035. The base year is 2014.

Table of Contents

Executive SummarySummary of Key FindingsTop Market Trends Driving Autonomous Technologies in TrucksHow OEMs will Differentiate their Brand in the FutureAutonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost AnalysisAutomated Driving BenchmarkValue Proposition of Automated Commercial VehiclesPenetration Phases by VocationPenetration Phases by VocationAutomated Commercial Vehicles by ApplicationRegulatory Changes Necessary for Accelerating Autonomous TrucksKey Implications on Human FactorsTaxonomy of Future Automated Driving Business ModelsComparative Benchmark—Truck OEM Autonomous CapabilitiesSnapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption, 2025 and 2035Autonomous Truck OutlookResearch Scope, Objectives, Background, and MethodologyResearch ScopeResearch Aims and ObjectivesKey Questions this Study Will AnswerResearch BackgroundResearch MethodologyOEM Groups Compared in this StudyDefinitions and SegmentationAutomated Driving DefinitionsAutomated Driving Definitions (continued)Mega Trends and Industry Convergence ImplicationsMega Trends Driving the Future of Autonomous Commercial VehiclesMega Trends Driving the Future of Autonomous Commercial Vehicles (continued)Introduction and Key TrendsAutonomous Truck OutlookBenefits of Vehicle AutomationTaxonomy of Future Automated Driving Business ModelsFocus Areas of Key StakeholdersTop Market Trends Driving Autonomous Technologies in Trucks Penetration Phases by VocationPenetration Phases by VocationPhases of Automated Commercial Vehicle UsageKey Industry Challenges for Autonomous TrucksShortage of Trained Technicians Special Focus—Truck PlatooningTruck Platooning Business Models for Truck PlatooningTruck Platooning—Fleet AngleSupporting Technologies OverviewKey Technology Enablers for Automated DrivingTechnologies Required for Various Levels of Vehicle AutomationAutomated Driving—Application RoadmapFreight Logistics of Fleets Using Autonomous Driving TechnologiesV2X Technology Evolution for Piloting Autonomous TrucksVision of the Future—Smart Connected Trucks, Roads, and CitiesConvergence of ADAS and Connectivity for Autonomous DrivingCybersecurity for Autonomous Commercial VehiclesCybersecurity and Data EncryptionHuman Factors Associated with Automated VehiclesHWW of Aging Truck DriversKey Implications on Human FactorsSystem Characteristics and HMI DevelopmentVision of Autonomous Commercial Vehicles from a Driver’s PerspectiveManaging Control and SupervisionCost of Autonomous Commercial VehiclesNorth American Cost of Trucking—2014Western European Cost of Trucking—2014Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost AnalysisBenchmark by Vocation—Autonomous Trucks ImplicationsBenchmark by Vocation—Autonomous Truck Implications (continued)Value Proposition of Automated Commercial VehiclesMarket Drivers, Restraints, and Global Penetration ForecastMarket DriversMarket RestraintsAutonomous Truck Adoption Scenario AnalysisSnapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption, 2025 and 2035Snapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption, 2025 and 2035 AnalysisAutonomous Driving Technologies RoadmapDisparate Safety Systems Enabling Autonomous TrucksTransmission Technology Installation Forecasts Global Heavy-duty Truck Safety Systems Adoption Hot Spots Safety Systems Technology Roadmap Sensor Technologies Roadmap Automated Vehicle Electrical/Electronic Architecture Roadmap Communications Technology Roadmap Localization Roadmap Localization Technology Outlook Communication Network Evolution Regulatory and Societal EnvironmentRegulatory Changes Necessary for Accelerating Autonomous TrucksValidation and Testing of Automated Vehicles Impact of Current Regulations Insurer PerspectiveAutomated Driving—Societal Impact RoadmapOEM ImplicationsOEM Implications from Autonomous Driving TechnologiesHow OEMs will Differentiate their Brand in the Future Traditional vs. Non-traditional Automated Driving Autonomous Driving Technologies Benchmark of Global HD OEMsComparative Benchmark—Truck OEM Autonomous CapabilitiesOEM Packaging and Marketing of Autonomous TrucksOEM Strategic Approach to Autonomous Trucks—Key OEM GoalsTier I Supplier ImplicationsConclusions and Future OutlookKey Conclusions and Future OutlookThe Last Word—5 Big PredictionsLegal DisclaimerAppendixMarket Engineering MethodologyList of Abbreviations


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