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Virus Outbreak Trumps Trade Wars as the Biggest 2020 Economic Threat
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The coronavirus outbreak is wreaking havoc on the global economy. The Chinese economy is being adversely hampered, with other economies across the globe facing severe negative effects as well. Frost & Sullivan has analysed the outlook for three scenarios, the Gradual Abatement scenario, the Severe Epidemic scenario, and the Severe Pandemic scenario, and forecast the global GDP growth trajectory under these three scenarios. The economic implications for the world economy are expected to be much more pronounced compared to the 2003 SARS outbreak, with China now being much more integrated into the world economy. The world economy is much more dependent on China for production, trade, tourism, and so on today. The economic implications of the virus outbreak will differ from country to country depending on ties with China the extent of the outbreak in each country. The US for example is not likely to see timely higher Chinese purchases of goods and services under the Phase 1 trade deal agreement. The potentially cancellation of Japan’s Olympics coupled with the sharp drop in tourist arrivals in Japan stands to push the Japanese economy into a recession. While India initially stood to benefit from potential production gains, the spread of cases more recently in India has created panic. Clearly, this is an evolving global issue, with economic implications tied to the extent and severity of the outbreak. The research also analyses the implication of the virus outbreak on global economic events and trends such as trade wars and oil prices. Oil prices are expected to see a quite a large drop in 2020, given the slowdown in Chinese demand and global travel restrictions which will hamper jet fuel demand. The virus outbreak is prompting central banks globally to go on the defensive in order to support their economies, with the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates very recently.The cross-industry impact section analyses the impact on the healthcare, automotive, big tech, travel and tourism, retail, and food delivery industries. The virus outbreak is playing havoc with automotive supply chains given factory shutdowns in China, and with Hubei province positioned as a hub for auto parts production and OEMs. Consumer demand and retail sales in China are expected to remain slumped. Discretionary spending in China is expected to be largely scaled back over the next few months. Travel and tourism is expected to also take a significant dent; several mega-events stand to be cancelled in the next few weeks and months. Key Questions Answered in this Report:· What is the scenario-based outlook for world GDP growth?· How do different economies stand to get affected?· What is the outlook for crude oil prices?· How is China more integrated with the world economy today compared to the 2003 SARS outbreak?· Will trade wars intensify if China cannot meet its Phase 1 deal commitments?· How will the virus outbreak impact industries such as automotive and healthcare?· What are some risk mitigation strategies that businesses can employ?
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