After five years of buzz and excitement, 2023 has become somewhat of a reality check for the hydrogen industry. The volume of final investment decisions (FIDs) for projects has been low as financing costs and associated project scrutiny have increased. The results from utilizing hydrogen in some sectors have proved disappointing, with projected costs making them unfeasible. Technology OEMs have struggled to provide clear evidence that they still reduce costs. Progress in clarifying key regulations and incentives has been slow.

However, none of this changes the fact that hydrogen will play a crucial role in the energy transition. In 2024, the industry should achieve more regulatory certainty to enable more FIDs. Increased scrutiny will likely mean stronger business cases for projects put forward. Reducing attention to sectors where a better decarbonization alternative exists will enable focusing on those sectors where hydrogen is the best fit. Challenges will remain for market participants, but the strong will be able to prosper and thrive.

Crucially, although there is significant geopolitical competition within the hydrogen sector, there is broad global agreement amongst the major powers that progress needs to be made as part of efforts to tackle climate change. China and the United States have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions across their economies—hydrogen from low-carbon energy sources is a key element in achieving that.

Author: Jonathan Robinson