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Growth Slowdown in the First Half due to Escalating Trade War
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Economic growth in the Americas is expected to slow down in H1 2019. The region continues to see low private and public sector investment. Poor infrastructure, in addition to shortcomings in the education system, contributes to low productivity and weak external competitiveness. Panama and Chile are expected to see the highest growth at 4.8% and 3.9%, respectively. Argentina is expected to be in recession throughout 2019. The US started with a high growth rate of 3.2% in Q1 2019but slowed down to 2.8% in Q2 2019. Mexico is expected to see a weaker performance in H1 due to high inflation rate and the weak peso. The Colombian economy is expected to pick up in 2020, as a result of firm oil prices, greater investment in the extractives sector, and stronger household spending.Downsize risks persist due to external factors, such as tightening global financing conditions, increased trade tensions, economic slowdown in China, and a possible sharper fall in commodity prices. External threats to the region lie in higher US interest rates and the fear of recession in the US. Brazil is expected to face challenges as it takes steps to correct the fiscal imbalance and keep the economy robust. A cloud of uncertainty and doubt hangs over the political climate of the new government in Mexico.Country Coverage: Americas· Argentina· Brazil· Canada· Chile· Colombia· Mexico · Panama· The United StatesSector Coverage: economic indicators, demographics, energy, manufacturing, food and beverages, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, mining, electricity, construction, agriculture, healthcare, information and communication technologiesIndicator coverage: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components, GDP growth, export and import, foreign direct investment, inflation, business confidence, population and demographics, index of industrial production (IIP), value-add by industry, trade by industry, IIP by industry, production of important commodities, oil production and consumption, oil export and import, renewable energy, emissions, coal production and consumption, healthcare spending, Internet and mobile subscription, and regional GDP growth calculationYear, Quarter, and Month Coverage:· Yearly data: 2015–2023· Quarterly data: Q1 2015–Q3 2020 (Select Indicators)· Monthly data: January 2015–March 2019 (Select Indicators)
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