Analysis of the Two-wheeler Motorcycle Market in Key ASEAN Countries, Forecast to 2020

In 2019, the key ASEAN countries under discussion in this study—Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam—sold a total of 11.5 million units of two-wheeler motorcycles, which was 0.7% lower than the 11.6 million units sold in 2018. The 3 countries have established a cumulative annual production capacity of approximately 21.4 million units. Vietnam is likely to expand its per-annum production capacity from 5.7 million units in 2019 to 6.5 million units in the short term.

Two-wheeler motorcycles are a useful, flexible, and convenient mobility solution in congested cities, including Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh, and Bangkok. In Bangkok, for instance, alleys account for 37% of the road space; this makes for an extremely overcrowded city in which two-wheelers are the vehicle of choice. Two-wheeler motorcycles have also become a dominant mode of transportation in more than 80% of Hanoi’s urban areas. In addition, the delay of the city's first metro will continue to limit the use of public transportation.

All the major ASEAN countries have implemented the Euro III emission standard for newly registered two-wheeler motorcycles. However, no specific emission regulations govern the use of two-wheeler motorcycles (in operation) registered before 2019.

The low engine displacement segment dominates the market. Segments with engine displacement below 125cc accounted for a combined 79.2% share in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, followed by the 126-250cc and above segments with a share of 19.4% (2019).

Hybrid and electric powertrain jointly accounted for 0.7% and 0.6% in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, respectively. Vietnam has the highest penetration of electric powertrain, and it sold 60,000 units of electric two-wheeler motorcycles in 2019. These vehicles are popular in Thailand as well, with sales of 67,000 units in the same year.

Rapid economic and income growth from previous years has resulted in saturation of market demand. In addition, the current global economic slowdown, the decline in cross-border trading, and supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 challenge market growth.

The ASEAN two-wheeler motorcycle market is highly concentrated; it is dominated by Japanese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and this trend is likely to continue in future. Honda and Yamaha accounted for a combined 96.4% in 2019. Emerging domestic OEMs, such as PT Gesits Technologies Indonesia, Vietnam’s Vinfast Trading & Production LLC, and Thailand’s Deco Green Energy Co., Ltd., will compete intensely with well-established participants, especially in the electric powertrain space.