Future Business Models of Autonomous Vehicle Services, 2030

OEMs, who have been traditionally maintaining industry leadership and also tight control over the ecosystem, have realized that the ongoing shift towards holistic mobility solutions presents a substantial threat to their position and dominance. They have also realized that the emergence of autonomous vehicles will not only disrupt the way we travel but also cause a major disruption to how players across the value chain operate.
In order for autonomous technology to be viable, it needs to have a profitable and sustainable business model. The key challenge is to develop a robust strategy after taking into account many challenges such as regulatory hurdles, lack of standardized road infrastructure, and low consumer confidence on autonomous technology. Despite all these challenges, there is a huge inflow of new entrants, especially the ones with no automotive background, and all of them agree that autonomous vehicles promise good profit margins while reducing operating expenses.

We at the Mobility team within Frost & Sullivan have published a report titled “Future Business Models of Autonomous Vehicle Services, 2019,” which aims to find answers to the challenges. The aim of this study is to research, analyze, and forecast the emerging autonomous services market at a global level and also assess the future growth and developments in the market.

Our research indicates that the autonomous vehicle service market is expected to grow from a mere $1.14 billion in 2019 to $202.51 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 60.1%, facilitated by mutually beneficial business models across the entire value chain. Among the various services, the mobility services market is expected to grow from $0.01 million in 2019 to $22.41 billion in 2030 showcasing the most drastic cluster for growth in the next decade.

Peripheral services which include services such as on-demand/user insurance, vehicle data services, and predictive maintenance together roughly amount to 55% – i.e., $110 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 78% from 2019. Vehicle services such as on-demand feature updates and parking services for autonomous vehicles will grow from a mere $0.20 billion in 2019 to $35.15 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 60.1%. The autonomous logistics market is expected to grow from a mere $0.74 billion in 2019 to $34.46 billion in 2030 at a CAGR of 41.7%, driven by consumers’ desire for faster delivery and their willingness to pay a premium for the same.