Global Commercial Aircraft Growth Opportunities

The global commercial aircraft industry demonstrates a high focus on developing fuel-efficient aircraft to help their clients (airlines) achieve sustainability targets. This study examines commercial aircraft that scheduled airlines operate. Scheduled airlines operate on different business models: full-service, low-cost, hybrid, and cargo carriers. Regional analysis of the commercial aircraft identifies 4 types: narrow body, wide body, regional jet, and turboprop. It excludes business jets and general aviation aircraft. The study provides a market forecast from 2022 to 2032 based on commercial aircraft delivery to airlines and aircraft lessors. In 2021, the total commercial aircraft market was worth $132.21 billion in revenue and is forecast to grow to $308.02 billion by 2032, considering the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russo-Ukrainian war. Demand for narrow-body aircraft was highest at 60.6%, followed by wide-body aircraft at 35.4%, regional jet at 3.2%, and turboprop at 0.8%. During the forecast period, demand for narrow-body aircraft is expected to increase due to high order backlog from low-cost carriers, while orders for wide-body aircraft will likely decrease as production of aircraft such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 ceases due to the lower need. Boeing’s 777 is expected to deliver its new avatar in 2024. Demand for the regional jet is expected to decline slightly as production of the Russian-built Sukhoi Superjet 100 and upcoming MC-21 projects cease due to the stringent sanctions on Russia by the United States and allied countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the regional jet and turboprop aircraft segments, with Mitsubishi and De Havilland Canada halting production plans for SpaceJet and Dash 8 due to weak demand. On the other hand, ARJ21 will likely attract decent demand driven by Chinese airlines. Low demand for turboprop aircraft forced De Havilland Canada to cease its manufacturing operation for Dash 8. As the market recovers to the pre-pandemic levels, Frost and Sullivan expects De Havilland to restart Dash 8 production. The study includes regional analysis for Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa. Demand for new aircraft is observed primarily from the developed nations as they replace older fleets, while airlines from emerging economies show expansion activities in their aircraft fleet. Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer are the 3 leading commercial aircraft manufacturers that account for 97.8% of the total market. These companies work closely with other industry stakeholders like airlines, engine manufacturers, oil companies, and aviation regulators to enhance sustainability in the aviation industry.