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Despite the Push for Electric Vehicles, Diesel Propulsion is Likely to Account for 77.3% of HD Truck Sales in 2030. Upcoming Regulations in Developing Countries providing strong Opportunities for OEMs
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Greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency regulations in TRIAD countries and increasingly stringent tailpipe emission standards in developing countries will shape the powertrain strategies of OEMs over the next decade. This study provides an overview of key future fuel efficiency and tailpipe emission regulations across different regions for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. North America is adopting GHG regulations and will next focus on ultra NOx regulations (medium term). Europe has developed a tool for CO2 monitoring and will soon implement GHG regulations. India will shift from BS IV to BS VI (equivalent to the Euro VI) by 2020; it will have a fuel efficiency regulation in place from 2018. China will shift to China VI in 2 phases - 2020 and 2023; Phase 3 fuel efficiency regulations will be implemented in 2023. These regulations will augment the penetration of advanced diesel engine technologies such as advanced turbochargers, automated manual transmission, advanced aftertreatment systems, and electrification. In addition, novel engine architecture such as opposed piston engines, split cycle engines, double compression expansion engines, and the Miller cycle will be explored to improve the brake thermal efficiency of diesel engines. Falling battery prices, broader incentive policies, and charging infrastructure developments will boost the trend of electrification. Battery pack prices are expected to fall below $100 per kWh by 2023, with high battery production capacities of 250+ GWh globally. With growing battery availability and technology-readiness, fully electric vehicles will gain prominence and will be largely used across all regions by 2025. OEMs have also announced plans to manufacture electric trucks and range-extended powertrain. Fuel cell technology will gain prominence after 2022 due to the advantages of reduced component weight and packaging size. North American OEMs have commercialized most technological advancements from the SuperTruck I program, and a strong push for electrification across major OEMs and EV start-ups is being observed. European OEMs are shifting to vertically integrated engines and transmission with proprietary turbochargers, and these facilitate precise control over vehicle drivetrain. As part of powertrain diversification, OEMs are focusing on proprietary natural gas engines and EV platforms. Chinese OEMs are leveraging technology partnerships with European OEMs and engine research institutes to upgrade diesel engines to meet upcoming regulations. Further, government incentives are driving rapid progress in electrification across different Chinese OEMs. Indian OEMs are adopting a two-pronged approach by improving in-house engine platforms and sourcing advanced diesel engine technologies from tier 1 engine suppliers, Japanese OEMs, and European engine research institutes.
Provide a strategic overview of the regional regulations that control emission and help to improve fuel efficiency and quality in North America, Europe, China, and India
Key Issues Addressed
Author: Saideep Sudhakar
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