Global Economic Recovery in Post-Pandemic 2021

Global Economic Recovery in Post-Pandemic 2021

5.3% Global Growth Expected for 2021, with China and India to See Growth of 8% or More

RELEASE DATE
31-Mar-2021
REGION
Global
Research Code: PBA1-01-00-00-00
SKU: CI00746-GL-MO_25340

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Description

2020 was, without a doubt, an extremely turbulent year for the global economy, with lockdowns, sharp trade contraction, accelerated job losses, and supply-chain disruptions. Recovery started picking up towards the second half of the year with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. The global economy nonetheless experienced a very deep 2020 recession.

Recovery will be the keyword going into 2021, in the light of continued easing up of restrictions, vaccine administration, and demand-side revival. Global growth is expected to accelerate to 5.3% in 2021. The pace of recovery is expected to be much stronger for the group of emerging markets and developed economies, especially supported by high growth rates for China and India.

This research captures the 2021 global economic outlook, focussing on visioning scenarios, growth projections, policy developments, and risks to watch out for. The global economy is most likely, for example, to see a U-curve recovery into 2021. If however, downside risks materialize, there remains the chance of a double-dip recession or a W-curve recovery process. Following a sharp contraction in Q2 2020 GDP growth amidst lockdowns, an associated strong rebound in growth figures is expected for Q2 2021.

Oil prices should accelerate in 2021, although remaining below 2019 levels. The finalization of a UK-EU Brexit deal has provided much relief to the European economy, although some Brexit-related disruptions will persist in H1 2021. On the policy front, there have been major policy shifts in the US following the new US Presidency. The US, for example, is expected to primarily support clean energy policies, in the future.

The research features separate regional economic outlook sections focusing on country-specific GDP growth rates, growth opportunities, and key economic developments. The US for example should see 4.4% growth in 2021, especially supported by a recent stimulus push and new stimulus package expectations. European economies continue to face pressure from re-imposed restrictions. China should see 8.0% growth for 2021, while India will see its 2021–2022 fiscal year growth accelerating to 10.9%. 2021 growth rates are reflective of the low GDP base effect from 2020 to an extent.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the top 5 global economic predictions for 2021?
  • What is the global growth outlook under baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios?
  • What are some of the key drivers and restraints for the global economy in 2021?
  • How will major economies such as the US, UK, and India perform?
  • What are the top growth opportunities to watch out for, by region?
  • What is expected of Brexit in 2021?
  • What are the economic implications of the shift in US presidency?
  • How will trade and supply-chain shifts and developments impact the global economy?
  • What is the outlook for Europe given re-imposed restrictions?
  • When is global GDP expected to return to pre-pandemic levels?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.
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Table of Contents

Top 5 2020 Global Economic Highlights

2020 Global Economy—Actuals vs. Forecast

2008–2020 Global Historic GDP Growth

Top 5 2021 Global Economic Predictions

2021 Scenario Analysis—Quarterly Global Growth

2021 Scenario Analysis—Assumptions

2021 World GDP Growth Snapshot

Advanced Economies—Key Predictions for 2021

Emerging Economies—Key Predictions for 2021

2021 Growth Opportunities—Top 3 Opportunities by Region

2021 Regional Trends—GDP Growth, Risks, and Policy Direction

2021 Global Economy—Scope of Analysis

Forecast Assumptions—Global Economy

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Economy

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Key Economic Metrics for North America—US and Canada

Key Economic Metrics for Latin America—Brazil and Mexico

Key Economic Metrics for Latin America—Colombia and Panama

Key Economic Metrics for Latin America—Argentina

Key Economic Metrics for Europe—UK and Germany

Key Economic Metrics for Europe—France and Spain

Key Economic Metrics for Middle East—Saudi Arabia and Iran

Key Economic Metrics for Middle East—Qatar and Turkey

Key Economic Metrics for Africa—Tanzania and Kenya

Key Economic Metrics for Africa—Egypt and Nigeria

Key Economic Metrics for Africa—South Africa

Key Economic Metrics for Asia-Pacific—China and India

Key Economic Metrics for Asia-Pacific—Japan and Indonesia

Key Economic Metrics for Asia-Pacific—Australia

Growth Drivers for the Global Economy

Growth Restraints to the Global Economy

2021 Annual Global Growth

2021 Scenario Analysis—Quarterly Global Growth

2021 Scenario Analysis—Assumptions

2021 Oil Price, Supply, and Demand Outlook

2021 Monetary Policy Outlook

North America—Top 3 Growth Opportunities

North America—GDP Growth

US and Canada—GDP Growth Outlook

US and Canada—Economic Outlook Analysis

North America—Key Economic Developments

Latin America—Top 3 Growth Opportunities

Latin America—GDP Growth

Brazil and Mexico—GDP Growth Outlook

Brazil and Mexico—Economic Outlook Analysis

Colombia and Panama—GDP Growth Outlook

Colombia and Panama—Economic Outlook Analysis

Argentina—Economic Outlook Analysis

Latin America—Key Economic Developments

2021 Latin America Economic Outlook—Top Predictions

Europe—Top 3 Growth Opportunities

Europe—GDP Growth

UK and Germany—GDP Growth Outlook

UK and Germany—Economic Outlook Analysis

France and Spain—GDP Growth Outlook

France and Spain—Economic Outlook Analysis

Europe—Key Economic Developments

Middle East—Top 3 Growth Opportunities

Middle East—GDP Growth

Saudi Arabia and Iran—GDP Growth Outlook

Saudi Arabia and Iran—Economic Outlook Analysis

Qatar and Turkey—GDP Growth Outlook

Qatar and Turkey—Economic Outlook Analysis

Middle East—Key Economic Developments

2021 Middle East Economic Outlook—Top Predictions

Africa—Top 3 Growth Opportunities

Africa—GDP Growth

Tanzania and Kenya—GDP Growth Outlook

Tanzania and Kenya—Economic Outlook Analysis

Egypt and Nigeria—GDP Growth Outlook

Egypt and Nigeria—Economic Outlook Analysis

South Africa—Economic Outlook Analysis

Africa—Key Economic Developments

2021 Africa Economic Outlook—Top Predictions

Asia-Pacific—Top 3 Growth Opportunities

Asia-Pacific—GDP Growth

China and India—GDP Growth Outlook

China and India—Economic Outlook Analysis

Japan and Indonesia—GDP Growth Outlook

Japan and Indonesia—Economic Outlook Analysis

Australia—Economic Outlook Analysis

Asia-Pacific—Key Economic Developments

2021 Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook—Top Predictions

Growth Opportunity 1: Manufacturing Gains from Trade and Supply Chain Shifts

Growth Opportunity 1: Manufacturing Gains from Trade and Supply Chain Shifts (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Demand Revival from Easing Restrictions and New Stimulus

Growth Opportunity 2: Demand Revival from Easing Restrictions and New Stimulus (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Oil Recovery and Accelerated Economic Diversification

Growth Opportunity 3: Oil Recovery and Accelerated Economic Diversification (continued)

Key Conclusions

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

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Related Research
2020 was, without a doubt, an extremely turbulent year for the global economy, with lockdowns, sharp trade contraction, accelerated job losses, and supply-chain disruptions. Recovery started picking up towards the second half of the year with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. The global economy nonetheless experienced a very deep 2020 recession. Recovery will be the keyword going into 2021, in the light of continued easing up of restrictions, vaccine administration, and demand-side revival. Global growth is expected to accelerate to 5.3% in 2021. The pace of recovery is expected to be much stronger for the group of emerging markets and developed economies, especially supported by high growth rates for China and India. This research captures the 2021 global economic outlook, focussing on visioning scenarios, growth projections, policy developments, and risks to watch out for. The global economy is most likely, for example, to see a U-curve recovery into 2021. If however, downside risks materialize, there remains the chance of a double-dip recession or a W-curve recovery process. Following a sharp contraction in Q2 2020 GDP growth amidst lockdowns, an associated strong rebound in growth figures is expected for Q2 2021. Oil prices should accelerate in 2021, although remaining below 2019 levels. The finalization of a UK-EU Brexit deal has provided much relief to the European economy, although some Brexit-related disruptions will persist in H1 2021. On the policy front, there have been major policy shifts in the US following the new US Presidency. The US, for example, is expected to primarily support clean energy policies, in the future. The research features separate regional economic outlook sections focusing on country-specific GDP growth rates, growth opportunities, and key economic developments. The US for example should see 4.4% growth in 2021, especially supported by a recent stimulus push and new stimulus package expectations. European economies continue to face pressure from re-imposed restrictions. China should see 8.0% growth for 2021, while India will see its 2021–2022 fiscal year growth accelerating to 10.9%. 2021 growth rates are reflective of the low GDP base effect from 2020 to an extent.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the top 5 global economic predictions for 2021?
  • What is the global growth outlook under baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios?
  • What are some of the key drivers and restraints for the global economy in 2021?
  • How will major economies such as the US, UK, and India perform?
  • What are the top growth opportunities to watch out for, by region?
  • What is expected of Brexit in 2021?
  • What are the economic implications of the shift in US presidency?
  • How will trade and supply-chain shifts and developments impact the global economy?
  • What is the outlook for Europe given re-imposed restrictions?
  • When is global GDP expected to return to pre-pandemic levels?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Neha Anna Thomas
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number PBA1-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9A7B-EM