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5.3% Global Growth Expected for 2021, with China and India to See Growth of 8% or More
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2020 was, without a doubt, an extremely turbulent year for the global economy, with lockdowns, sharp trade contraction, accelerated job losses, and supply-chain disruptions. Recovery started picking up towards the second half of the year with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. The global economy nonetheless experienced a very deep 2020 recession.Recovery will be the keyword going into 2021, in the light of continued easing up of restrictions, vaccine administration, and demand-side revival. Global growth is expected to accelerate to 5.3% in 2021. The pace of recovery is expected to be much stronger for the group of emerging markets and developed economies, especially supported by high growth rates for China and India.This research captures the 2021 global economic outlook, focussing on visioning scenarios, growth projections, policy developments, and risks to watch out for. The global economy is most likely, for example, to see a U-curve recovery into 2021. If however, downside risks materialize, there remains the chance of a double-dip recession or a W-curve recovery process. Following a sharp contraction in Q2 2020 GDP growth amidst lockdowns, an associated strong rebound in growth figures is expected for Q2 2021. Oil prices should accelerate in 2021, although remaining below 2019 levels. The finalization of a UK-EU Brexit deal has provided much relief to the European economy, although some Brexit-related disruptions will persist in H1 2021. On the policy front, there have been major policy shifts in the US following the new US Presidency. The US, for example, is expected to primarily support clean energy policies, in the future. The research features separate regional economic outlook sections focusing on country-specific GDP growth rates, growth opportunities, and key economic developments. The US for example should see 4.4% growth in 2021, especially supported by a recent stimulus push and new stimulus package expectations. European economies continue to face pressure from re-imposed restrictions. China should see 8.0% growth for 2021, while India will see its 2021–2022 fiscal year growth accelerating to 10.9%. 2021 growth rates are reflective of the low GDP base effect from 2020 to an extent.
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Author: Neha Anna Thomas
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