Global Future Risks—Future-proofing your Strategies, 2030

Global Future Risks—Future-proofing your Strategies, 2030 Updated Research Available

An Assessment of the Top 21 Risks that Threaten the Next Decade

RELEASE DATE
30-Apr-2020
REGION
Global
Deliverable Type
Megatrends
Research Code: K3FB-01-00-00-00
SKU: CI00693-GL-MT_24255
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Description

Our world is evolving rapidly, and so are risks. Rapid innovation, growing political tensions, climate change and the unexpected rise of infectious diseases have made it increasingly complex to anticipate, assess, or mitigate risks.

Risks are now increasingly interconnected, which if amplified can trigger a ripple effect across industries, regions, and diverse stakeholder groups. Therefore, mitigating them will involve the adoption of a cohesive, interdisciplinary, and multipronged approach. Policymakers, businesses, and individuals are constantly challenged, often due to their unpreparedness, to assess the impact and to identify growth opportunities emerging from these risks.

The global future risks report provides a compelling analysis that will not only help stakeholders understand the impact of future risks but also equip them to act on clear growth opportunities. The risks discussed in this study were determined by our global team of futurists, consultants, and analysts, with consultation from thought leaders throughout the company. As such, they encompass a broad spectrum of risks, reveal future impacts around the world, and outline growth opportunities for risk mitigation.

Our rigorous research process involves the collation of an exhaustive list of global risks for the short, medium and long terms. These have then been filtered to identify the top 21 risks affecting 4 key spectrums: global stability, ecological balance, human productivity, and technological advancement.

At the risk impact assessment level, the study analyzes key indicators, drivers and trigger points that influence the risk and outlines their impact through the short, medium and long terms. The study also provides a risk scenario assessment wherein both negative and positive outcomes are discussed for two scenarios: risk mitigated versus risk amplified. New growth opportunities that correspond to the risk have been identified as per projected impact and certainty. The study also provides an insight into the next strategic action companies must take to mitigate these risks and leverage growth opportunities.

The short, medium and long-term risks are identified as follows:

Short-term Risks: A hyperconnected world will expose governments, organizations, and individuals to privacy, disinformation and cybersecurity threats. Two-thirds of the world will live in water-stressed conditions and natural disasters will erode ecological balance. Infectious diseases such, as the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak will trigger global health and economic concerns. International trade disputes, rising protectionism, political upheavals, and national withdrawals (e.g., Brexit) could severely affect global economic activity.

Medium-term risks: About 60% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2025, leading to infrastructure stress and a shortage of productive employment opportunities. The lack of basic amenities and low agricultural output could lead to a resource nexus. Human productivity will be affected by a rapidly aging population. Dietary imbalances and undernourishment will result in obesity and malnutrition. Climate change will cause the global temperature to rise by 1.5°C if carbon emissions are not curtailed.

Long-term risks: AI and automation could together replace 20 million jobs by 2030. Rapid advances in AI could put critical national infrastructure at risk and potentially lead to a state of cyber warfare. An unethical and unregulated digital environment could pose serious threats to personal and organizational privacy and national security. An increasingly squeezed middle class will result in a global state of wealth inequality. A national identity crisis could result in geopolitical conflicts, marginalization, and terrorism.

The complete list of risks is given below.
Short-term Risks:
•     Privacy & disinformation
•     Cyber risks
•     Neo-nationalism and political upheaval
•     Water crisis
•     Rise of infectious diseases
•     Global economic slowdown
•     Natural disasters

Medium-term Risks:
•     Urbanization risks
•     Obesity & lifestyle risks
•     Future of mental wellbeing
•     Climate change
•     Resource nexus
•     Aging and at-risk population
•     Malnutrition and health risks

Long-term Risks:
•     AI as a Threat
•     Future of neural interfaces and invasive technologies
•     Future of digital regulatory uncertainty
•     National identity crisis
•     Shifting global alliances
•     Future of wealth inequities
•     Threats to the future of work

The study presents more than 80 growth opportunities arising from these 21 risks, which will help policymakers, companies, and individuals take immediate, tactical and strategic actions and draw plans to mitigate risks.

Author: Vinay Venkatesan

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.
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Table of Contents

Key Findings

Our Global Future Risk Universe

Introduction

Introduction—How to Read this Study

Our Four Pillars of Risk Assessment—An Overview

Our Four Pillars of Risk Assessment

Risk 1—Privacy & Disinformation Risks: An Overview

Risk 1—Privacy & Disinformation Risks: Levers

Risk 1—Privacy & Disinformation Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 1—Privacy & Disinformation Risks: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 2—Cyber Risks: An Overview

Risk 2—Cyber Risks: Levers

Risk 2—Cyber Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 2—Cyber Risks: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 3—Neo-nationalism and Political Upheaval: An Overview

Risk 3—Neo-nationalism and Political Upheaval: Levers

Risk 3—Neo-nationalism and Political Upheaval: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 3—Neo-nationalism and Political Upheaval: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 4—Water Crisis: An Overview

Risk 4—Water Crisis: Levers

Risk 4—Water Crisis: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 4—Water Crisis: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 5—Rise of Infectious Diseases: An Overview

Risk 5—Rise of Infectious Diseases: Levers

Risk 5—Rise of Infectious Diseases: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 5—Rise of Infectious Diseases: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 6—Global Economic Slowdown: An Overview

Risk 6—Global Economic Slowdown: Levers

Risk 6—Global Economic Slowdown: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 6—Global Economic Slowdown: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 7—Natural Disasters Risks: An Overview

Risk 7—Natural Disasters Risks: Levers

Risk 7—Natural Disasters Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 7—Natural Disasters Risks: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 1—Urbanization: An Overview

Risk 1—Urbanization: Levers

Risk 1—Urbanization: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 1—Urbanization: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 2—Lifestyle and Obesity Risk: An Overview

Risk 2—Lifestyle and Obesity Risk: Levers

Risk 2—Lifestyle and Obesity Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 2—Lifestyle and Obesity Risk: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 3—Future of Mental Wellbeing: An Overview

Risk 3—Future of Mental Wellbeing: Levers

Risk 3—Future of Mental Wellbeing: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 3—Future of Mental Wellbeing: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 4—Climate Change Risks: An Overview

Risk 4—Climate Change Risks: Levers

Risk 4—Climate Change Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 4—Climate Change Risks: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 5—Resource Nexus: An Overview

Risk 5—Resource Nexus: Levers

Risk 5—Resource Nexus: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 5—Resource Nexus: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 6—Aging and At-Risk Population: An Overview

Risk 6—Aging and At-Risk Population: Levers

Risk 6—Aging and At-Risk Population: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 6—Aging and At-Risk Population: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 7—Malnutrition and Health Risks: An Overview

Risk 7—Malnutrition and Health Risks: Levers

Risk 7—Malnutrition and Health Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 7—Malnutrition and Health Risks: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 1—AI as a Threat: An Overview

Risk 1—AI as a Threat: Levers

Risk 1—AI as a Threat: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 1—AI as a Threat: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 2—Future of Neural Interfaces and Invasive Technologies: An Overview

Risk 2—Future of Neural Interfaces and Invasive Technologies: Levers

Risk 2—Future of Neural Interfaces and Invasive Technologies: Scenarios

Risk 2—Future of Neural Interfaces and Invasive Technologies: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 3—Future of Digital Regulatory Uncertainty: An Overview

Risk 3—Future of Digital Regulatory Uncertainty: Levers

Risk 3—Future of Digital Regulatory Uncertainty: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 3—Future of Digital Regulatory Uncertainty: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 4—National Identity Crisis: An Overview

Risk 4—National Identity Crisis: Levers

Risk 4—National Identity Crisis: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 4—National Identity Crisis: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 5—Shifting Global Alliances (Post Western Order): An Overview

Risk 5—Shifting Global Alliances (Post Western Order): Levers

Risk 5—Shifting Global Alliances (Post Western Order): Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 5—Shifting Global Alliances (Post Western Order): Opportunity Analysis

Risk 6—Future of Wealth Inequities: An Overview

Risk 6—Future of Wealth Inequities: Levers

Risk 6—Future of Wealth Inequities: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 6—Future of Wealth Inequities: Opportunity Analysis

Risk 7—Threats to the Future of Work: An Overview

Risk 7—Threats to the Future of Work: Levers

Risk 7—Threats to the Future of Work: Risk Scenario Assessment

Risk 7—Threats to the Future of Work: Opportunity Analysis

Conclusion—Strategic Action Mapping

The Last Word—Strategic Recommendations

Legal Disclaimer

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Our world is evolving rapidly, and so are risks. Rapid innovation, growing political tensions, climate change and the unexpected rise of infectious diseases have made it increasingly complex to anticipate, assess, or mitigate risks. Risks are now increasingly interconnected, which if amplified can trigger a ripple effect across industries, regions, and diverse stakeholder groups. Therefore, mitigating them will involve the adoption of a cohesive, interdisciplinary, and multipronged approach. Policymakers, businesses, and individuals are constantly challenged, often due to their unpreparedness, to assess the impact and to identify growth opportunities emerging from these risks. The global future risks report provides a compelling analysis that will not only help stakeholders understand the impact of future risks but also equip them to act on clear growth opportunities. The risks discussed in this study were determined by our global team of futurists, consultants, and analysts, with consultation from thought leaders throughout the company. As such, they encompass a broad spectrum of risks, reveal future impacts around the world, and outline growth opportunities for risk mitigation. Our rigorous research process involves the collation of an exhaustive list of global risks for the short, medium and long terms. These have then been filtered to identify the top 21 risks affecting 4 key spectrums: global stability, ecological balance, human productivity, and technological advancement. At the risk impact assessment level, the study analyzes key indicators, drivers and trigger points that influence the risk and outlines their impact through the short, medium and long terms. The study also provides a risk scenario assessment wherein both negative and positive outcomes are discussed for two scenarios: risk mitigated versus risk amplified. New growth opportunities that correspond to the risk have been identified as per projected impact and certainty. The study also provides an insight into the next strategic action companies must take to mitigate these risks and leverage growth opportunities. The short, medium and long-term risks are identified as follows: Short-term Risks: A hyperconnected world will expose governments, organizations, and individuals to privacy, disinformation and cybersecurity threats. Two-thirds of the world will live in water-stressed conditions and natural disasters will erode ecological balance. Infectious diseases such, as the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak will trigger global health and economic concerns. International trade disputes, rising protectionism, political upheavals, and national withdrawals (e.g., Brexit) could severely affect global economic activity. Medium-term risks: About 60Percentage of the world’s population will live in cities by 2025, leading to infrastructure stress and a shortage of productive employment opportunities. The lack of basic amenities and low agricultural output could lead to a resource nexus. Human productivity will be affected by a rapidly aging population. Dietary imbalances and undernourishment will result in obesity and malnutrition. Climate change will cause the global temperature to rise by 1.5°C if carbon emissions are not curtailed. Long-term risks: AI and automation could together replace 20 million jobs by 2030. Rapid advances in AI could put critical national infrastructure at risk and potentially lead to a state of cyber warfare. An unethical and unregulated digital environment could pose serious threats to personal and organizational privacy and national security. An increasingly squeezed middle class will result in a global state of wealth inequality. A national identity crisis could result in geopolitical conflicts, marginalization, and terrorism. The complete list of risks is given below. Short-term Risks: • Privacy & disinformation • Cyber risks • Neo-nationalism and political upheaval • Water crisis • Rise of infectious diseases • Global economic slow
More Information
Deliverable Type Megatrends
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Vinay Venkatesan
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number K3FB-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9A3B