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Growth Opportunities in Global Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics, 2024 2028
GLP-1 RA Drug Class, Combination Therapies, and Digital Convergence for Affordable Disease Management Drive Growth
14-Jun-2024
Global
Market Research
Globally, diagnosis of metabolic diseases such as type 2 diabetes and obesity have increased. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the global prevalence of obesity has worsened. Obesity is considered a main precursor of diabetes and contributes an estimated 80% to 85% toward the risk of type 2 diabetes. As a result, the financial burden associated with healthcare has grown and is predicted to continue. The demand for combination treatments that address obesity and diabetes (diabesity) jointly has increased notable as a result of these healthcare challenges.
Current drug therapies for obesity have a limited safety and efficacy profile. Furthermore, patient-centricity and variability in disease management are lacking. These gaps in available therapies will lead to increased demand for newer classes of drugs, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists, that have emerged as breakthrough drug classes and offer superior glycemic control and weight loss, resulting in better clinical outcomes. Owing to a surge in demand globally, R&D efforts by market participants will intensify. Strategies to improve supply, affordability, and access to these therapies for a wider patient population while preventing off-label sales will drive direct-to-consumer and hybrid care models.
Life sciences companies are likely to augment their research efforts to develop safe and efficacious pharmacological therapies with a focus on lowering the dosing frequency, sustained weight loss without lean muscle loss, benefits across the cardiometabolic spectrum, and drug delivery innovations as key competitive differentiation strategies. The trend of strategic research partnerships is poised to accelerate the development of next-generation medicines, novel drug classes with new mechanisms of action, and beyond-the-pill solutions. In addition, a patient-centric treatment approach will be adopted that will combine pharmacotherapy with nutrition, behavioral, and lifestyle interventions for managing cardiometabolic diseases. Hence, in the next 2 to 3 years, pharma companies will increasingly launch digital services to improve patient access in partnership with telehealth platforms for personalized treatment management.
In addition, the focus on precision medicine (PM) will rise in the next 5 years, leading to better disease management. This will continue to drive PM research by small biotechs and market leaders. For example, the Novo Nordisk Foundation Centre for Genomic Mechanism of Diseases partners with academia and research institutes such as the Broad Institute of Cambridge to map human gene regulation in obesity and diabetes.
This study aims to identify the primary growth opportunities that will drive the diabesity market in the near future. The study also aims to highlight the most prominent and emerging business models prevalent across the market that will enable industry stakeholders to enhance their geographic coverage in terms of patient outreach and address the challenges of limited patient access. The study will also shed light on some of the crucial market drivers and restraints that impact growth. It provides brief yet significant insights into the game-changing participants across each indication that are striving to develop disruptive drugs and technologies to maintain their growth trajectory. The study focuses on the leading M&A and partnership activities that are impacting the market as well as present and future market trends that will shape its future. The study period is 2021 to 2028.
Revenue Forecast
The revenue estimate for the base year 2021 is $58.38 billion, with a CAGR of 12.2% for the study period from 2023 to 2028.
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Diabetes and Obesity (Diabesity) Therapeutics Industry
Disruptive Technologies
-
Why:
- Diabesity (diabetes and obesity both present in a patient) is a growing global public health concern. While antidiabetic and weight loss drugs have been in use for several years, their efficacy has been low.
- The side effects of weight loss drugs have led users to discontinue treatment.
- New Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists (GLP-1 RAs) drugs have proven effective and can disrupt the diabesity treatment landscape.
- Frost Perspective:
- With positive select trial data on its ability to lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks, the GLP-1 drug class will see adoption across cardiometabolic diseases.
- In 2 to 5 years, pharma companies will explore GLP-1 RAs efficacy in treating other diseases, such as CKD, NASH, and Alzheimer’s, which will expand the total addressable market.
- LS companies will target emerging economies with low-priced first-gen GLP-1s in Asia and Europe.
Internal Challenges
-
Why:
- The industry is moving toward an extended patent cliff, with several revenue-generating drugs losing their exclusivity—leading to revenue losses, creating an urgent need for pipeline growth, and driving increased R&D and pharma warming.
- Combination therapy is in high demand, driving the strategic priority to create therapies to manage T2D, obesity, and other comorbidities.
- Investment in indication expansion will be crucial for growth.
- Frost Perspective:
- Significant gaps in existing medicines will fuel the demand for drugs with novel mechanisms of action (MOA) and next-gen existing glycemic control, prolong weight loss, restrict muscle loss, and have CDV benefits.
- The next 5 years will see efficacious and tolerable therapeutic options, the entry of new players, and drug consolidation, thereby enhancing market competition.
Industry Convergence
-
Why:
- The convergence of life sciences, digital health, and medical devices is becoming crucial for integrated care delivery, expanded patient reach, and geographical presence.
- An integrated approach to chronic care management has proven to reduce healthcare use, hospitalization rates, and readmissions while notably improving medication adherence and patient outcomes.
- Frost Perspective:
- In the next 2 to 3 years, pharma companies will launch more digital services to improve patient access by partnering with telehealth platforms (e.g., Eli Lilly’s DillyBore for a direct-to-consumer offering and Sanofi’s Software-as-a-Medical Device for treatment management).
- The focus on predictive care will continue to increase. The convergence of drugs, devices, and digital therapeutics (DTx) will cover personalized medication and the patient journey to improve experiences and outcomes.
Scope of Analysis
- This research service provides a detailed overview of the global diabetes and obesity (diabesity) therapeutics industry, including an analysis of industry participants, and a 5-year revenue forecast.
- The study defines the market by therapy areas and breaks these down by pharmacological class for each therapy area.
- The geographic scope covers NA; Europe; APAC; MENASA; and LATAM and the Caribbean.
- The study forecasts the potential revenue of global diabesity prescription drugs based on therapy area and by pharmacological class. The research provides regional revenue share estimates of the overall market and individually for the anti-diabetic and anti-obesity therapeutics markets on a best-effort basis.
- The study discusses the most prevalent and emerging business models, market access and reimbursement trends for the GLP-1 drug class, revenue share analysis with competitive assessments, and key market trends.
- The study highlights some of the primary market drivers and restraints, drug development trends, partnerships, and investment and consolidation activities that affect market growth.
- The research provides brief insights into some of the game-changing companies that are developing disruptive virtual care technologies and therapies for diabesity management.
- The study provides emerging growth opportunities for industry players based on clinical needs, technology trends, business models, and competitive outlooks.
Segmentation by Product
Diabetes:
This segment includes anti-diabetic drugs to manage elevated blood sugar levels. Diabetes comprises T1D and T2D. Insufficient insulin production characterizes T1D, for which the standard of care (SOC) is insulin/insulin analog. Ineffective insulin utilization characterizes T2D, for which insulin and non-insulin drugs are the SOC.
Pharmacological Class:
Insulin and Insulin Analog
- Mealtime/rapid-acting
- Ultra-rapid-acting
- Intermediate-acting
- Basal/long-acting insulin types
Non-insulin Drugs
- GLP-1 RA
- DPP-4 Inhibitors
- SGLT2 Inhibitors
- Others*
Obesity
This segment includes anti-obesity drugs to manage the chronic condition that a BMI of ≥ 30 kg/m2 characterizes.
Competitive Environment
| Number of Competitors | 58 with revenue of more than $1.0 million |
| Competitive Factors | Cost, efficacy, safety and tolerability, technology, line of treatment, label expansion |
| Main End-user Industry Vertical | Healthcare and manufacturing |
| Leading Competitors | Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Merck & Co., Boehringer Ingelheim, Sanofi |
| Revenue Share of Top 5 Competitors (2023) | 97.5% (obesity therapeutics); 86.6% (diabetes therapeutics) |
| Other Notable Competitors | Astra Zeneca, Novartis, Ono Pharmaceuticals, Servier, Bayer, Biocon, Pfizer, Vivus, Bristol Myers Squibb |
| Distribution Structure | Retail sales and direct sales |
| Notable Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) | Novo Holdings announced its acquisition of Catalent; Novo Nordisk acquired Inversago Pharma and Embark Biotech; Roche acquired Carmot Therapeutics; and Sanofi acquired Provention Bio. |
Key Competitors
Global
- NOVO NORDISK
- ELI LILLY
- BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM
- ASTRAZENECA
- MERCK & CO
- SANOFI
- MERCK KGaA
- SERVIER
- ONO PHARMACEUTICAL
- BAYER
- PFIZER
- SUMITOMO PHARMA
- JOHNSON & JOHNSON
- HALEON
- CELLTRION
- BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB
- VIATRIS
- NOVARTIS
North America
-
BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC
- NOVO NORDISK
- ELI LILLY
- BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM
- ASTRAZENECA
- MERCK & CO
- SANOFI
- ABBOTT DIABETES CARE
- MERCK KGaA
- RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS
- VIVUS INC.
- MANNKIND CORPORATION
- AMGEN
- VTV THERAPEUTICS, INC.
- ALITUMINE INC.
Europe
-
NOVO NORDISK
- ELI LILLY
- SANOFI
- ASTRA ZENECA
- ROCHE
- BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM
- GLYCEND THERAPEUTICS
- MERCK & CO
- MERCK KGaA
- BAYER AG
- JANSSEN PHARMACEUTICALS
- VIVUS INC.
- NOVARTIS
- MEDIMMUNE LLC (SUBSIDIARY OF ASTRA ZENECA)
Asia-Pacific
-
MITSUBISHI CHEMICAL GROUP
- ASTELLAS PHARMA
- TAISHO PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDINGS
- TEIJIN PHARMA LTD
- TAKEDA
- INNOVENT BIOLOGICS
- HANDOK
- CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
- DAIICHI SANKYO
- SUMITOMO PHARMA
- TEVA PHARMA
- SUN PHARMA
- CIPLA LTD
- LUPIN
- GLENMARK PHARMA
- Dr REDDY’s LAB
MENASA and LATAM & the Caribbean
-
JULPHAR
- NOVO NORDISK
- ELI LILLY
- SANOFI
- BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM
- BAYER
- TEVA
- ROCHE DIABETES CARE
- DIABETACARE
- NEWBRIDGE PHARMACEUTICALS
- BIOCON
- NOVARTIS
- EUFARMA
- ROEMMERS
- BAGÓ
- RAFFO
- LIBBS
- GENOMMA LAB
- LIOMONT
Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Diabetes and Obesity (Diabesity) Therapeutics Industry
Projected Prevalence—Obesity
Economic Burden—Obesity
Projected Regional Prevalence—Diabetes
Projected Regional Prevalence—Diabetes (continued)
Economic Burden—Diabetes
Trends Advancing Market Growth
Trends Advancing Market Growth (continued)
Trends Advancing Market Growth (continued)
Drug Development Trends—Obesity R&D Pipeline
Drug Development Trends—Obesity (continued)
Drug Development Trends—Diabetes R&D Pipeline
Drug Development Trends—Diabetes (continued)
Overview of the GLP-1 RA Research Landscape
Overview of the GLP-1 Research Landscape (continued)
Impact and Market Disruptions—GLP-1 Drug Class
Impact and Market Disruptions—GLP-1 Drug Class (continued)
Market Access and Reimbursement Trends—GLP-1 RA
Market Access and Reimbursement Trends—GLP-1 RA (continued)
Market Access and Reimbursement Trends—GLP-1 (continued)
Scope of Analysis
Segmentation by Product
Competitive Environment
Key Competitors
Growth Metrics
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Forecast Considerations
Forecast Considerations (continued)
Revenue Forecast
Revenue Forecast by Product
Revenue Forecast by Region
Revenue Forecast Analysis
Revenue Forecast Analysis (continued)
Market Outlook—GLP-1 Therapy Access
Market Outlook—GLP-1 Access (continued)
Forecast Analysis by Region
Forecast Analysis by Region (continued)
Pricing Trends and Forecast Analysis
Pricing Trends and Forecast Analysis (continued)
Revenue Share
Revenue Share (continued)
Revenue Share Analysis
Revenue Share Analysis (continued)
Investment Trends—Capability Building and R&D Focus
Consolidation Trends—Pipeline Buildup and Market Penetration
Business Models
Business Models (continued)
Hybrid Care Model for GLP-1 Drugs
Business Models (continued)
Companies to Watch—Obesity
Companies to Watch—Diabetes
Companies to Watch—Virtual Solution Providers for GLP-1 Drugs
Growth Metrics
Revenue Forecast
Revenue Forecast Analysis
Revenue Forecast by Region
Forecast Analysis by Region
Forecast Analysis by Region (continued)
Revenue Forecast by Pharmacological Class
Forecast Analysis by Pharmacological Class
Forecast Analysis by Pharmacological Class (continued)
Growth Metrics
Revenue Forecast
Revenue Forecast Analysis
Revenue Forecast by Region
Forecast Analysis by Region
Forecast Analysis by Region (continued)
Forecast Analysis by Region (continued)
Revenue Forecast by Pharmacological Class
Forecast Analysis by Pharmacological Class
Forecast Analysis by Pharmacological Class (continued)
Forecast Analysis by Pharmacological Class (continued)
Forecast Analysis by Pharmacological Class (continued)
Growth Opportunity 1—GLP-1-based Multi-agonists with Improved Tolerability Profile
Growth Opportunity 1—GLP-1-based Multi-agonists with Improved Tolerability Profile (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—AI-driven Predictive and Personalized Care in Diabesity
Growth Opportunity 2—AI-driven Predictive and Personalized Care in Diabesity (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3—Women-centric Targeted Therapies for Diabetes and Obesity
Growth Opportunity 3—Women-centric Targeted Therapies for Diabetes and Obesity (continued)
Growth Opportunity 4—Obesity Therapeutics Development in India and China
Growth Opportunity 4—Obesity Therapeutics Development in India and China (continued)
Best Practice Recognition
Frost Radar
Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
Next Steps
Take the Next Step
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
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Research Highlights
- Overview of the market- Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics.
- Trends
- Ecosystem, Drug development trends, GLP-1 Research Landscape, GLP-1 market Disruption
- Prevalent and emerging business models across the market
- Key market drivers and restraints, partnerships, M&A
- Revenue share
- Market Forecast
- Pharmacological Class Revenue Forecast
- Emerging growth opportunities
Author: Supriya Lala Kundu
| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| Author | Supriya Lala Kundu |
| Industries | Healthcare |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Keyword 1 | Obesity Therapeutics |
| Keyword 2 | Diabetes Therapeutics |
| Keyword 3 | Diabetes and obesity drug market |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | PFKC-01-00-00-00 |