Impact Analysis of ADAS on the US Collision Repair Market, Forecast to 2030

The collision repair market in the United States is at an interesting crossroad. After years of decline due to improving vehicle safety and smart legislation, crashes have been edging up after the recession. Many factors—distracted driving, growth in vehicles in operation (VIO) in a rebounding economy, and increasing congestion, among others—have been driving this reversal. While these trends have resulted in strong market growth, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles are expected to reduce collision rates again, and this time the impact is likely to be more intense. These factors will transform the market as the cost and the complexity of repair will rise. There will be winners and losers—the latter mainly comprising small local/regional operators that do not have a strategic vision, or deep pockets, to sustain themselves. As a result, consolidation—already on hyper-speed—will continue to accelerate. Frost & Sullivan is of the opinion that challenges and opportunities will exist alongside each other. Vehicle trends in the United States, including operating volumes, will continue to drive market growth despite strong headwinds from safety technologies and stringent regulations. Collision rates are expected to decline, bucking the trend the country has seen this decade, but the higher cost of vehicle repair will lead to top-line growth. Margin growth, however, will be more problematic. As collision rates decline and as the addressable market shrinks, competitive forces will intensify. Consolidation will be the most obvious outcome, but national chains will have to continue investing in technologies, technicians, and government lobbying to ensure that they have a level playing field with dealers. This research service aims to offer an in-depth analysis of the US collision repair market for Class 1 vehicles; it also attempts to understand the impact of ADAS technology on the market. The base year is 2019, and the forecast period is from 2020 to 2030. The study compiles findings concluded from various research services and papers published by Frost & Sullivan over the past two years. Insight is also attained by looking at overall market potential by analyzing key factors that impact collision rate. In addition, Frost & Sullivan tries to understand the contribution of dealers and independent service providers to market revenue. The best practices adopted by key market participants as well as the emerging trends in the market are also discussed. Author: Lakshmi Venugopal