Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select European Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket

Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select European Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket

Two Quarters of War-like Conditions and Geopolitical Chaos will Shrink the Demand for Automotive Lubricants by 2.1% in 2023

RELEASE DATE
01-Dec-2022
REGION
Europe
Deliverable Type
Market Research
Research Code: MG47-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02461-EU-MR_27192
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Description

This research service discusses the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on select European automotive replacement lubricants aftermarket for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (class 1 to 3) in demand (million units) and volume (million US Quart). The regions covered are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The base year is 2022, and the forecast period is 2023.

This study analyzes key oil and natural gas companies in Europe, followed by major Russian oil companies operating in the region. It highlights the dependency of European countries on Russian oil companies, the exit strategy of major European oil and lubricant manufacturers, and their alternative sourcing strategy.

The study discusses macroeconomic trends influenced by war, such as GDP, inflation, recession, and impact on major currencies. It identifies market drivers and restraints that can influence lubricant demand in 2023. The total demand base is identified, and 3 lubricants covered are engine oil (motor oil or passenger car motor oil [PCMO]), gear oil, and transmission fluid. For each lubricant, Frost & Sullivan forecasts 3 growth scenarios for the year 2023:

•     Scenario 1 is based on historical trends. It depicts a market without the War.
•     Scenario 2 is based on higher growth, as the market reacts positively to a possibility where demand grows faster than historical trends. The War does not affect domestic markets severely.
•     Scenario 3 is based on a lower growth rate, as the market reacts negatively to a possibility where demand shrinks quicker than historical trends. The War adversely affects domestic European markets.

The study identifies growth opportunities in the automotive lubricant segment in areas of alternative distribution partners, sourcing avenues, and production.

Author: Benson Augustine

Table of Contents

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Scope of Analysis

Key Questions this Research Deliverable will Address

Segmentation & Definition

Distribution Structure

Key Competitors—Major Automotive Lubricants Suppliers in Europe

Key Findings

Current Scenario and 2023 Outlook

Russo-Ukrainian War—Timeline of Key Events & Economic Sanctions

Crude Oil Brent* Prices

GDP Growth Outlook, 2022–2023

Global GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario

Impact of War on Global GDP

Impact of War on Macroeconomic Dynamics

Impact of War on Macroeconomic Dynamics (continued)

What to Expect Ahead?

Largest European Oil Companies by Revenue, 2021

Russia & Ukraine Largest Oil & Gas Companies by Revenue, 2021

Major Importers of (HSN 27101980) in Europe

Petrochemical Companies—Exit and Business Continuity Strategy

Petrochemical Companies—Exit and Business Continuity Strategy(continued)

Noteworthy Trends in the European Lubricant Landscape

Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the European OEMs & Distribution Ecosystem

Global Automotive OEMs Pausing Trade with Russia & Ukraine

Shift in OEM, OES, and Distributor-Supplier Strategies

Growth Drivers

Growth Restraints

Forecast Assumptions

Growth Metrics

Key European Economic & Automotive Aftermarket Metrics1

Select European Countries—VIO & Growth Forecast to 2023

Impact of the Pandemic & the Russo-Ukrainian War on Vehicle Kilometer

Increase in Passenger Vehicle Ownership Patterns in Europe, 2022

Total Replacement Lubricant Aftermarket—Unit & Volume Demand

Replacement Aftermarket—Engine Oil Demand

Replacement Aftermarket—Gear Oil Demand

Replacement Aftermarket—Transmission Fluid Demand

Summary—Channel Impact

What to Expect Ahead in 2023 for the Aftermarket Automotive Lubricant Supplier?

Growth Opportunity 1—American and North African Oil Distribution Groups

Growth Opportunity 1—American and North African Oil Distribution Groups (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2—Double Down on Production and Distribution

Growth Opportunity 2—Double Down on Production and Distribution (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3—Retail Volume Monitoring Technologies

Growth Opportunity 3—Retail Volume Monitoring Technologies (continued)

The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

List of Exhibits

Legal Disclaimer

This research service discusses the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on select European automotive replacement lubricants aftermarket for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (class 1 to 3) in demand (million units) and volume (million US Quart). The regions covered are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The base year is 2022, and the forecast period is 2023. This study analyzes key oil and natural gas companies in Europe, followed by major Russian oil companies operating in the region. It highlights the dependency of European countries on Russian oil companies, the exit strategy of major European oil and lubricant manufacturers, and their alternative sourcing strategy. The study discusses macroeconomic trends influenced by war, such as GDP, inflation, recession, and impact on major currencies. It identifies market drivers and restraints that can influence lubricant demand in 2023. The total demand base is identified, and 3 lubricants covered are engine oil (motor oil or passenger car motor oil [PCMO]), gear oil, and transmission fluid. For each lubricant, Frost & Sullivan forecasts 3 growth scenarios for the year 2023: • Scenario 1 is based on historical trends. It depicts a market without the War. • Scenario 2 is based on higher growth, as the market reacts positively to a possibility where demand grows faster than historical trends. The War does not affect domestic markets severely. • Scenario 3 is based on a lower growth rate, as the market reacts negatively to a possibility where demand shrinks quicker than historical trends. The War adversely affects domestic European markets. The study identifies growth opportunities in the automotive lubricant segment in areas of alternative distribution partners, sourcing avenues, and production. Author: Benson Augustine
More Information
Deliverable Type Market Research
Author Vasanth Raj
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Keyword 1 impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Keyword 2 European automotive replacement lubricants aftermarket
Keyword 3 Automotive Aftermarket
Podcast No
WIP Number MG47-01-00-00-00