Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022

Implementation of Bharat Stage-IV to Negatively Impact CV Demand in FY2018; Demand to Reach New Heights in FY2020

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This study involves a unique methodology of analysis of various end-use application segments in commercial vehicles, their usage pattern, replacement cycles, and expected growth in the end-use industry, coupled with Mega Trends such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, urbanization, changing safety and emission norms, new tax reforms, changing trends in the usage pattern, and the resultant effect on the demand of commercial vehicles across the Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) range.

The scope of the study includes commercial vehicle goods carriers (excluding 3W) and passenger carriers (excluding cars and vans) as defined by the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM).

For goods carriers, the various end-use industry sectors that drive the demand for commercial vehicles include cement, Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL), Steel, mining, construction material, agriculture, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Fast Moving Consumer Durables (FMCD), automobiles, import-export containers, and market load.

For the passenger carrier segment, the various end-user applications include school, staff, tourist, intra-city, and intercity buses.

Total Units in Operation (UIO) for all the above end-user applications have been estimated. Estimated growth in end-use applications, coupled with vehicle replacement patterns in each segment, is used to estimate the demand in each segment.

Apart from end-use applications, the Indian commercial vehicle industry is also affected by a number of factors as follows which are used to further iterate the demand for commercial vehicles.
• One of the fastest growing GDPs in the world, leading to higher demand for goods and services
• Changing safety and emission regulations with the country moving to Bharat Stage-IV (Euro IV) norms in April 2017 affecting the purchase cost
of vehicles
• Implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) in July 2017 which effectively makes the whole of India a single market with no state
barriers or differential taxation
• Increasing restrictions on overloading, thereby, increasing the demand for higher GVW vehicles
• Mega Trends such as urbanization, which is increasing the demand for last-mile connectivity

Key questions this study will answer are as follows
• Historic analysis of the commercial vehicles industry in India from FY2009 to FY2016
• Key participants in the industry and their market shares for FY2016 and FY2017
• Market shares of various participants in each segment categories of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) and Medium and Heavy Commercial
Vehicles (MHCV)
• End-user demand drivers of commercial vehicles in India
• Estimated impact of each application segment in the demand for commercial vehicles
• Impact of Mega Trends and how it will impact the growth of commercial vehicles
• GVW-wise forecast of commercial vehicles, including goods carriers and passenger carriers till FY2022
• Year-on-year forecast of all segment from FY2018 to FY2022

Table of Contents

Executive SummaryKey FindingsKey Findings (continued)Segmentation and Historical Data Analysis—Indian CV IndustryIndian CV Market SegmentationSegmentation by Application and Vehicle UsageSegmentation by Vehicle CategoryCommercial Vehicles Historic TrendMajor Factors Affecting CV SalesMarket Share Analysis of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)Unit Sales by Vehicle Usage Market Share Analysis of OEMs by GC and PCMHCV Sales by Vehicle Usage Market Share Analysis of OEMs by MHCV GC and PCLCV Sales by Vehicle UsageMarket Share Analysis of OEMs by LCV GC and PCGoods Carrier Segment Analysis—Major Load Producing Industries and CV UIOModal Split for Primary Transportation, POL, India, FY2017Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Cement and Mining, India, FY2017Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Other Sectors, India, FY2017Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Other Sectors, India, FY2017 (continued)CementCement Industry—India, FY2017Cement—Value ChainUnits in Operation Estimates, Cement, India, FY2017Petroleum, Oils, Lubricants (POL)POL Sector—India, FY2017Major Refinery Hubs in IndiaPOL—Value ChainChemical—Value ChainBitumen—Value ChainEdible Oil—Value ChainLPG Tanker—Value ChainUnits in Operation Estimates, POL, India, FY2017MiningKey Minerals Production and Mine Location—India, FY2017Units in Operation Estimates, Mining, India, FY2017SteelSteel Sector—India, FY2017Steel—Value ChainUnits in Operation Estimates, Steel, India, FY2017Automobile CarriersAutomobile Industry—India, FY2017Units in Operation Estimates, Automobiles, India, FY2017Agriculture and HorticultureAgriculture—India, FY2017Units in Operation Estimates, Agriculture, India, FY2017Construction MaterialRoad Infrastructure Development, India, 2005 to 2025(est)Units in Operation Estimates, Construction Material, India, FY2017ISO ContainersPort Container TrafficISO Container—Value ChainUnits in Operation Estimates, ISO Containers, India, FY2017FMCG/FMCD Organized Retail and eCommerceRetail Industry—Sector Snapshot: India, FY2009 to FY2017Manufacturing Hubs—FMCGManufacturing Hubs—FMCDCurrent Operating Practice—FMCG and FMCD, India, FY2017Total UIO of the Applications ConsideredPassenger Carriers—Usage and VIO EstimatesStaff TransportationSchool TransportationIntercity TransportationRoute Permit/MofussilTouristMajor STUs Intercity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017Major CTUs Intracity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017Trends Shaping Indian Road Freight and Passenger Carrier MovementUrbanization—Growth in Urban Regions by 2025: IndiaSmart CitiesImpact of Smart Cities Development on CVFast-tracking ProjectsImpact of GSTGST—ExplainedGST Levy Structure and Impact on ManufacturersGST—Benefit for Automobile OEMsMajor Implications of GST for the HCV IndustryGST’s Impact on Logistics and TransportationMajor Warehousing Hubs will Emerge After GSTEmission Norms RoadmapRegulations—Effect of Emission Norms on HD TrucksOther RegulationsOther Regulations—Compulsory Air Conditioning (AC) in Truck CabinRegulations—Effect of Safety RegulationVehicle Scrapping Policy BackgroundVehicle Scrapping Policy—Other Factors and AssumptionsEstimated Effect of Scrap PolicyMega Projects—Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC)Mega Projects—Port Development: Sagar-Mala ProjectMega Projects—Railways ModernizationDedicated Freight Corridor—Impact on CV, IndiaOverloading Practice (MHCV Segment)Telematics in CVsMega Trends Shaping the Next 5 Years—CV PCNew Trends in Passenger TransportationNew Trends in Passenger Transportation (continued)New Trends in Passenger Transportation (continued)Industry StructureGoods Carrier Industry Structure—India, FY2017MHCV-GC Operating Economics Analysis—IndiaManpower AvailabilityGovernment Policies for the Transportation SectorForecast Model—Indian CV IndustryIndian Economy and HCV Sales Trend—IndiaPESTLE—Political Impact Analysis: IndiaPESTLE—Economical Impact Analysis: IndiaPESTLE—Social Impact Analysis: IndiaPESTLE—Technological Impact Analysis: IndiaPESTLE—Legal Impact Analysis: IndiaPESTLE—Ecological Impact Analysis: IndiaGDP Forecast—Scenarios; India, FY2017–FY2022Indian Commercial Vehicles Forecast—Application Segments Growth EstimatesEstimated Production Growth Rates by SegmentEstimated Production Growth Rates by Segment (continued)Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment (continued)Cement—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022POL—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022Mining—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022Steel—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022Automobiles—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022Agriculture—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022Construction Material—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022ISO Containers—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022FMCG and FMCD—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022Market Load and LCV—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022Major Transport Undertakings—Plans for ProcurementForecast FrameworkForecast—Goods Carrier: India, FY2017–FY2022Segment-wise MHCV-GC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022Segment-wise LCV-GC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022Forecast—Passenger Carrier: India, FY2017–FY2022Segment-wise PC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022Growth Opportunities and Companies to ActionGrowth Opportunity 1—Market ExpansionGrowth Opportunity 2—Freight DigitizationGrowth Opportunity 3—TelematicsGrowth Opportunity 4—Value Addition in TrucksStrategic Imperatives for Success and GrowthConclusions and Future OutlookKey Conclusions and Future OutlookKey ConclusionsThe Last Word—3 Big PredictionsLegal DisclaimerAppendixList of AbbreviationsMarket Engineering Methodology




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