Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022

Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022

Implementation of Bharat Stage-IV to Negatively Impact CV Demand in FY2018; Demand to Reach New Heights in FY2020

RELEASE DATE
11-Aug-2017
REGION
South Asia, Middle East & North Africa
Research Code: P8F3-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU01526-SA-MR_20591

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Description

This study involves a unique methodology of analysis of various end-use application segments in commercial vehicles, their usage pattern, replacement cycles, and expected growth in the end-use industry, coupled with Mega Trends such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, urbanization, changing safety and emission norms, new tax reforms, changing trends in the usage pattern, and the resultant effect on the demand of commercial vehicles across the Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) range.

The scope of the study includes commercial vehicle goods carriers (excluding 3W) and passenger carriers (excluding cars and vans) as defined by the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM).

For goods carriers, the various end-use industry sectors that drive the demand for commercial vehicles include cement, Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL), Steel, mining, construction material, agriculture, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Fast Moving Consumer Durables (FMCD), automobiles, import-export containers, and market load.

For the passenger carrier segment, the various end-user applications include school, staff, tourist, intra-city, and intercity buses.

Total Units in Operation (UIO) for all the above end-user applications have been estimated. Estimated growth in end-use applications, coupled with vehicle replacement patterns in each segment, is used to estimate the demand in each segment.

Apart from end-use applications, the Indian commercial vehicle industry is also affected by a number of factors as follows which are used to further iterate the demand for commercial vehicles.
• One of the fastest growing GDPs in the world, leading to higher demand for goods and services
• Changing safety and emission regulations with the country moving to Bharat Stage-IV (Euro IV) norms in April 2017 affecting the purchase cost
of vehicles
• Implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) in July 2017 which effectively makes the whole of India a single market with no state
barriers or differential taxation
• Increasing restrictions on overloading, thereby, increasing the demand for higher GVW vehicles
• Mega Trends such as urbanization, which is increasing the demand for last-mile connectivity

Key questions this study will answer are as follows
• Historic analysis of the commercial vehicles industry in India from FY2009 to FY2016
• Key participants in the industry and their market shares for FY2016 and FY2017
• Market shares of various participants in each segment categories of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) and Medium and Heavy Commercial
Vehicles (MHCV)
• End-user demand drivers of commercial vehicles in India
• Estimated impact of each application segment in the demand for commercial vehicles
• Impact of Mega Trends and how it will impact the growth of commercial vehicles
• GVW-wise forecast of commercial vehicles, including goods carriers and passenger carriers till FY2022
• Year-on-year forecast of all segment from FY2018 to FY2022

Table of Contents

Key Findings

Key Findings (continued)

Indian CV Market Segmentation

Segmentation by Application and Vehicle Usage

Segmentation by Vehicle Category

Commercial Vehicles Historic Trend

Major Factors Affecting CV Sales

Market Share Analysis of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)

Unit Sales by Vehicle Usage

Market Share Analysis of OEMs by GC and PC

MHCV Sales by Vehicle Usage

Market Share Analysis of OEMs by MHCV GC and PC

LCV Sales by Vehicle Usage

Market Share Analysis of OEMs by LCV GC and PC

Modal Split for Primary Transportation, POL, India, FY2017

Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Cement and Mining, India, FY2017

Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Other Sectors, India, FY2017

Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Other Sectors, India, FY2017 (continued)

Cement Industry—India, FY2017

Cement—Value Chain

Units in Operation Estimates, Cement, India, FY2017

POL Sector—India, FY2017

Major Refinery Hubs in India

POL—Value Chain

Chemical—Value Chain

Bitumen—Value Chain

Edible Oil—Value Chain

LPG Tanker—Value Chain

Units in Operation Estimates, POL, India, FY2017

Key Minerals Production and Mine Location—India, FY2017

Units in Operation Estimates, Mining, India, FY2017

Steel Sector—India, FY2017

Steel—Value Chain

Units in Operation Estimates, Steel, India, FY2017

Automobile Industry—India, FY2017

Units in Operation Estimates, Automobiles, India, FY2017

Agriculture—India, FY2017

Units in Operation Estimates, Agriculture, India, FY2017

Road Infrastructure Development, India, 2005 to 2025(est)

Units in Operation Estimates, Construction Material, India, FY2017

Port Container Traffic

ISO Container—Value Chain

Units in Operation Estimates, ISO Containers, India, FY2017

Retail Industry—Sector Snapshot: India, FY2009 to FY2017

Manufacturing Hubs—FMCG

Manufacturing Hubs—FMCD

Current Operating Practice—FMCG and FMCD, India, FY2017

Total UIO of the Applications Considered

Staff Transportation

School Transportation

Intercity Transportation

Route Permit/Mofussil

Tourist

Major STUs Intercity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017

Major CTUs Intracity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017

Urbanization—Growth in Urban Regions by 2025: India

Smart Cities

Impact of Smart Cities Development on CV

Fast-tracking Projects

Impact of GST

GST—Explained

GST Levy Structure and Impact on Manufacturers

GST—Benefit for Automobile OEMs

Major Implications of GST for the HCV Industry

GST’s Impact on Logistics and Transportation

Major Warehousing Hubs will Emerge After GST

Emission Norms Roadmap

Regulations—Effect of Emission Norms on HD Trucks

Other Regulations

Other Regulations—Compulsory Air Conditioning (AC) in Truck Cabin

Regulations—Effect of Safety Regulation

Vehicle Scrapping Policy Background

Vehicle Scrapping Policy—Other Factors and Assumptions

Estimated Effect of Scrap Policy

Mega Projects—Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC)

Mega Projects—Port Development: Sagar-Mala Project

Mega Projects—Railways Modernization

Dedicated Freight Corridor—Impact on CV, India

Overloading Practice (MHCV Segment)

Telematics in CVs

Mega Trends Shaping the Next 5 Years—CV PC

New Trends in Passenger Transportation

New Trends in Passenger Transportation (continued)

New Trends in Passenger Transportation (continued)

Goods Carrier Industry Structure—India, FY2017

MHCV-GC Operating Economics Analysis—India

Manpower Availability

Government Policies for the Transportation Sector

Indian Economy and HCV Sales Trend—India

PESTLE—Political Impact Analysis: India

PESTLE—Economical Impact Analysis: India

PESTLE—Social Impact Analysis: India

PESTLE—Technological Impact Analysis: India

PESTLE—Legal Impact Analysis: India

PESTLE—Ecological Impact Analysis: India

GDP Forecast—Scenarios; India, FY2017–FY2022

Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment

Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment (continued)

Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment (continued)

Cement—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

POL—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

Mining—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

Steel—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

Automobiles—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

Agriculture—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

Construction Material—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

ISO Containers—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

FMCG and FMCD—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

Market Load and LCV—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022

Major Transport Undertakings—Plans for Procurement

Forecast Framework

Forecast—Goods Carrier: India, FY2017–FY2022

Segment-wise MHCV-GC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022

Segment-wise LCV-GC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022

Forecast—Passenger Carrier: India, FY2017–FY2022

Segment-wise PC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022

Growth Opportunity 1—Market Expansion

Growth Opportunity 2—Freight Digitization

Growth Opportunity 3—Telematics

Growth Opportunity 4—Value Addition in Trucks

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

Key Conclusions and Future Outlook

Key Conclusions

The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

List of Abbreviations

Market Engineering Methodology

Related Research
This study involves a unique methodology of analysis of various end-use application segments in commercial vehicles, their usage pattern, replacement cycles, and expected growth in the end-use industry, coupled with Mega Trends such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, urbanization, changing safety and emission norms, new tax reforms, changing trends in the usage pattern, and the resultant effect on the demand of commercial vehicles across the Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) range. The scope of the study includes commercial vehicle goods carriers (excluding 3W) and passenger carriers (excluding cars and vans) as defined by the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM). For goods carriers, the various end-use industry sectors that drive the demand for commercial vehicles include cement, Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL), Steel, mining, construction material, agriculture, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Fast Moving Consumer Durables (FMCD), automobiles, import-export containers, and market load. For the passenger carrier segment, the various end-user applications include school, staff, tourist, intra-city, and intercity buses. Total Units in Operation (UIO) for all the above end-user applications have been estimated. Estimated growth in end-use applications, coupled with vehicle replacement patterns in each segment, is used to estimate the demand in each segment. Apart from end-use applications, the Indian commercial vehicle industry is also affected by a number of factors as follows which are used to further iterate the demand for commercial vehicles. • One of the fastest growing GDPs in the world, leading to higher demand for goods and services • Changing safety and emission regulations with the country moving to Bharat Stage-IV (Euro IV) norms in April 2017 affecting the purchase cost of vehicles • Implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) in July 2017 which effectively makes the whole of India a single market with no state bar
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Sankaralakshmi Sundaram
Industries Automotive
WIP Number P8F3-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No