Indian Commercial Vehicles Market Outlook, FY2020

Indian Commercial Vehicles Market Outlook, FY2020

The Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry is Expected to Witness Slow Growth in FY2020 Due to Impeding Effect of New Axle Load Norms, Stringent Regulatory Environment and Economic Slowdown

RELEASE DATE
27-Feb-2020
REGION
South Asia, Middle East & North Africa
Research Code: PAE3-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU01964-SA-MO_24126
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Description

The aim of this study is to understand the emerging market and technology trends shaping the Indian commercial vehicle industry, estimate the outlook for 2020, and forecast the industry volumes till 2025 by assessing the impact of current and upcoming regulations and norms.

The Indian commercial vehicle market is experiencing changes due to heavy regulatory winds, changes in customer preferences, segment shifts, increasing adoption of technology, and digitalization. The government’s aspirational economic growth targets, a growing population, consumer commodity spending, infrastructure developments, overall manufacturing growth, and agricultural output will be reflected in the future performance of Indian commercial vehicles. India is facing major imminent shift of emission from BS-IV to BS-VI from April 2020.

BS-VI is an outflow standard that will bring truly necessary changes in the Indian vehicle industry in terms of toxin emanations. The upcoming BS-VI standard incorporates a wide rundown of innovation adjustments in the engine, the most noteworthy being making On-board Diagnostics (OBD) mandatory for all vehicles. The revised axle load regulation that was announced in July 2018 with immediate effect, increases the vehicle’s permissible operating GVW capacity by approximately 12% to 15%. This resulted in nationwide faster freight transportation. The major implication for trucks emanating from GST is the consolidation of widespread small-to-medium storage yards to regionally centralized large warehouse facilities for hub-to-hub transportation. This has resulted in an increased demand for high GVW vehicles. The truck body code defines the standards for body building to significantly improve the quality of vehicles applicable for both OEMs and local body builders. The vehicle scrappage policy, which proposes voluntary scrappage of old vehicles under incentive scheme, is unlikely. The Ministry of Road Transport & Highways has clear set a regulatory roadmap, with a focus on quality, safety, efficiency, and environment.

Awareness of technology and realization of long-term Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) benefits drive the customer to invest in value-added features, moving away from the traditional price-based buying approach. Indian OEMs are heavily investing in Research and Development (R&D) for performance enhancement features to withstand tough competition from foreign OEMs.

In order to survive the current turbulence in the industry, Indian commercial vehicle OEMs will have to focus on value trucks by targeting the right set of customers and business models. The rising confluence of technologies in the industry provides a platform for various stakeholders to offer service solution based operating models such as trucks as a service. Commercial vehicle electrification in India, although very nascent, is expected to gain traction after 2025, with initial adoption of electrification in the LCV segment and will rapidly extend to MCV and HCV segments.

Author: Ankush Katailiha

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.
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Table of Contents

Key Highlights of Indian Commercial Vehicles

Changing Market Dynamics of Indian Commercial Vehicles

CV Forecast Versus Actuals—FY2019

Indian CV Industry Historical Sales FY2009 to FY2019

Commercial Vehicle Market—Unit Shipment Forecast by Segment

Top 3 Predictions for Commercial Vehicle Market

Research Scope

Commercial Vehicle—Definitions

Indian CV Market Segmentation

PESTEL Overview of the Commercial Vehicle Market in India

Macroeconomic Trends Impacting the Commercial Vehicle Market in India

Macroeconomic Trends Impacting the Commercial Vehicle Market in India (continued)

Technology Trends Impacting the Commercial Vehicle Market in India

Technology Trends Impacting the Commercial Vehicle Market in India (continued)

Technology Trends Impacting the Commercial Vehicle Market in India (continued)

Key Commercial Vehicle Market Trends in India

Key Commercial Vehicle Market Trends in India (continued)

Key Commercial Vehicle Market Trends in India (continued)

Top 8 Trends Shaping the Future of India’s CV Industry

Trend 1—Changing Logistics Landscape Through Digitalization

Trend 2—Telematics in CVs: Fleet Management Services (FMS)

Trend 3—Indian Electric Vehicles (EV) Landscape for Commercial Vehicle

Electrification Forecast—Transit Bus Market

Trend 4—Evolving Regulations Affecting the Indian CV Market

Trend 5—IoT and Big Data in Commercial Vehicle Industry, India

Trend 6—Benchmarking the Global Standards: Emission

Trend 7—Shift Toward Higher Tonnage Truck

Trend 8—Technology Upgrades Related to ADAS and Powertrain

Trend 9—Freight Aggregator Business Model in the CV Industry

Trend 10—Emerging Business Models in the Indian CV Industry

Mega Trends with High Certainty and High Impact on India’s CV Market

Mega Trends with High Certainty and High Impact on India’s CV Market (continued)

Technology Roadmap

Technology Roadmap (continued)

Technology Roadmap (continued)

Transmissions Technology Evolution

Active and Passive Truck Safety Systems

Cabin Ergonomics

Fleet/Driver Preferences—Fuel Efficiency Improvement

Fleet/Driver Preferences—Comfort and Ergonomics

Indian Telematics Roadmap—CVs

Factors Driving Telematics Growth in India

Regulations Outlook

GST Impact

Impact of Axle Load Regulation

OEMs Implementation Challenges

Truck Body Code

Motor Vehicle Amendment

Vehicle Scrappage Policy

Other Regulations—Important Draft Changes in AIS-093

Regulations—Effect of Safety Regulation

Industry Structure—Goods Carrier

Application Split for Truck Industry (SCV, LCV, MCV, and HCV)

Application by GVW Segments

Parcel Logistics

Major Core Segments of Parcel Logistics

Construction Materials

Fruits, Vegetables, and Perishables

Agriculture Products

Cement

Tankers and Bullets

Industrial Goods

Automotive

Mining

Bus Industry

OEM Landscape

Indian Commercial Vehicle Market Structure

Indian CV Market Historical Sales FY2009 to FY2019

Small Commercial Vehicle Segment—Historical Sales Analysis

Small Commercial Vehicle Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by Type and OEM, FY2019

Small Commercial Vehicle Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by OEM, FY2018 Versus FY2019

Light Commercial Vehicle Segment—Historical Sales Analysis

Light Commercial Vehicle Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by Type and OEM, FY2019

Light Commercial Vehicle Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by OEM, FY2018 Versus FY2019

Intermediate and Medium Commercial Vehicle Segment—Historical Sales Analysis

I&MCV Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by Type and OEM, FY2019

I&MCV Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by Type and OEM, FY2019 (continued)

I&MCV Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by OEM, FY2018 Versus FY2019

Heavy Commercial Vehicle Segment—Historical Sales Analysis

HCV Segment (Haulage and Tipper)—Percent Unit Shipment by Type and OEM, FY2019

HCV Segment (Tractor Trailer)—Percent Unit Shipment by Type and OEM, FY2019

HCV Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by OEM, FY2018 Versus FY2019

Bus Segment—Historical Sales Analysis

Bus Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by Type and OEM, FY2019

Bus Segment—Percent Unit Shipment by OEM, FY2018 Versus FY2019

Forecast Considerations

SCV Segment—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis

LCV—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis

ICV Segment—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis

MCV Segment—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis

HCV Segment—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis

Bus Segment—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis

Commercial Vehicle Market—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis

Commercial Vehicle Market—Unit Shipment Forecast by Segment

Emerging Start-ups and Business Models in the Indian CV Industry—BlackBuck

Emerging Start-ups and Business Models in the Indian CV Industry—Delhivery

Emerging Start-ups and Business Models in the Indian CV Industry—Porter

Emerging Start-ups and Business Models in the Indian CV Industry—Rivigo

Growth Opportunity—M&As, JVs in the Electric Ecosystem

Strategic Imperatives

Top 3 Predictions for Commercial Vehicle Market

Legal Disclaimer

List of Abbreviations

List of Abbreviations (continued)

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

The aim of this study is to understand the emerging market and technology trends shaping the Indian commercial vehicle industry, estimate the outlook for 2020, and forecast the industry volumes till 2025 by assessing the impact of current and upcoming regulations and norms. The Indian commercial vehicle market is experiencing changes due to heavy regulatory winds, changes in customer preferences, segment shifts, increasing adoption of technology, and digitalization. The government’s aspirational economic growth targets, a growing population, consumer commodity spending, infrastructure developments, overall manufacturing growth, and agricultural output will be reflected in the future performance of Indian commercial vehicles. India is facing major imminent shift of emission from BS-IV to BS-VI from April 2020. BS-VI is an outflow standard that will bring truly necessary changes in the Indian vehicle industry in terms of toxin emanations. The upcoming BS-VI standard incorporates a wide rundown of innovation adjustments in the engine, the most noteworthy being making On-board Diagnostics (OBD) mandatory for all vehicles. The revised axle load regulation that was announced in July 2018 with immediate effect, increases the vehicle’s permissible operating GVW capacity by approximately 12Percentage to 15Percentage. This resulted in nationwide faster freight transportation. The major implication for trucks emanating from GST is the consolidation of widespread small-to-medium storage yards to regionally centralized large warehouse facilities for hub-to-hub transportation. This has resulted in an increased demand for high GVW vehicles. The truck body code defines the standards for body building to significantly improve the quality of vehicles applicable for both OEMs and local body builders. The vehicle scrappage policy, which proposes voluntary scrappage of old vehicles under incentive scheme, is unlikely. The Ministry of Road Transport & Highways has clear set a regulatory roadmap, with a focus on quality, safety, efficiency, and environment. Awareness of technology and realization of long-term Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) benefits drive the customer to invest in value-added features, moving away from the traditional price-based buying approach. Indian OEMs are heavily investing in Research and Development (R&D) for performance enhancement features to withstand tough competition from foreign OEMs. In order to survive the current turbulence in the industry, Indian commercial vehicle OEMs will have to focus on value trucks by targeting the right set of customers and business models. The rising confluence of technologies in the industry provides a platform for various stakeholders to offer service solution based operating models such as trucks as a service. Commercial vehicle electrification in India, although very nascent, is expected to gain traction after 2025, with initial adoption of electrification in the LCV segment and will rapidly extend to MCV and HCV segments. Author: Ankush Katailiha
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Ankush Katailiha
Industries Automotive
WIP Number PAE3-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9883-A6,9889-A6,9694,9AF6-A6