LATAM Bus Industry, Forecast to 2030

LATAM Bus Industry, Forecast to 2030

Sustainability Targets in Municipalities and Electromobility Laws Fuel the Shift Toward Alternative Powertrain Buses

RELEASE DATE
30-Nov-2022
REGION
Latin America
Research Code: PDD7-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02430-LA-MT_27080
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Description

The overall commercial vehicle volume in LATAM, including 6 countries Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Peru, is expected to reach 50,540 units by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.7% between 2021 and 2030. Fleet renewal and electromobility laws will drive growth in the coming decade.

There has been a revival in passenger transportation following the lifting of COVID-19-induced movement restrictions. Implementing stricter emission regulations across countries in the region in the next few years will enable fleet operators to replace older fleets with clean buses, including NG and battery electric vehicles. The choice of alternative powertrains varies across countries, depending on their oil imports, natural gas reserves, established funding and bus operation models, electromobility laws, and focus on hydrogen.

Brazil and Mexico contribute to 71.1% of the region’s CV volumes. Most countries in the region focus on renewable energy sources for an energy transition from fossil fuels and an electromobility strategy in place to drive the growth of alternative powertrain vehicles. Chinese companies have an early-mover advantage in the electrification of public transportation in Latin America.

The top 3 OEMs in the medium and heavy-duty bus segments–Daimler, Traton (MAN & Scania), and Scania–take the contribution of European OEMs to more than three-fourths of the bus market in the region.

Chinese OEMs, such as Foton, Zhongtong, Yutong, Kinglong, and BYD, establishing their presence in the region, are expected to compete aggressively with European OEMs in the medium term.

Major cities in Latin America aim to replace public passenger transport fleets with EVs. The separation of asset ownership and operation (e.g., battery, bodywork, electric bus, maintenance) and other financing models (e.g., leasing) will be necessary to renew urban transportation buses. The growing ecosystem of truck OEMs, bodybuilders, and fleets that cater to this demand will positively impact allied sectors.

Author: Saideep Sudhakar

Table of Contents

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Bus Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Scope of Analysis

Product and Technology Segmentation

Key Findings

Bus Unit Sales by Country

2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance

Percent of Bus Unit Sales by Powertrain Split

Main Forecast Criteria

Growth Drivers for Alternative Powertrain Adoption

Growth Restraints for Alternative Powertrain Adoption

Key Growth Metrics

Unit Sales Forecast

Forecast Discussion

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms (continued)

OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping

OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping

Key Growth Metrics

Country Snapshot

Unit Sales Forecast

Forecast Discussion

Powertrain Forecast

OEM Market Share

Key Growth Metrics

Country Snapshot

Unit Sales Forecast

Forecast Discussion

Powertrain Forecast

OEM Market Share

Key Growth Metrics

Country Snapshot

Unit Sales Forecast

Forecast Discussion

Powertrain Forecast

OEM Market Share

Key Growth Metrics

Country Snapshot

Unit Sales Forecast

Forecast Discussion

Powertrain Forecast

OEM Market Share

Key Growth Metrics

Country Snapshot

Unit Sales Forecast

Forecast Discussion

Powertrain Forecast

OEM Market Share

Key Growth Metrics

Country Snapshot

Unit Sales Forecast

Forecast Discussion

Powertrain Forecast

OEM Market Share

Parameters and Assumptions—Transit Buses

Diesel, NG, and Electric Transit Bus Operational CPM Comparison

Operational Cost per Mile: Diesel, Electric, NG*

Growth Opportunity 1: Move Toward Zero-emission Transportation Through Electrification

Growth Opportunity 1: Move Toward Zero-emission Transportation Through Electrification (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Lower TCO to Expedite Adoption of Alternative Powertrains

Growth Opportunity 2: Lower TCO to Expedite Adoption of Alternative Powertrains (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Government Mandates and Innovative Business Models Expedite Electric Powertrain Adoption

Growth Opportunity 3: Government Mandates and Innovative Business Models Expedite Electric Powertrain Adoption (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

The overall commercial vehicle volume in LATAM, including 6 countries Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Peru, is expected to reach 50,540 units by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.7% between 2021 and 2030. Fleet renewal and electromobility laws will drive growth in the coming decade. There has been a revival in passenger transportation following the lifting of COVID-19-induced movement restrictions. Implementing stricter emission regulations across countries in the region in the next few years will enable fleet operators to replace older fleets with clean buses, including NG and battery electric vehicles. The choice of alternative powertrains varies across countries, depending on their oil imports, natural gas reserves, established funding and bus operation models, electromobility laws, and focus on hydrogen. Brazil and Mexico contribute to 71.1% of the region’s CV volumes. Most countries in the region focus on renewable energy sources for an energy transition from fossil fuels and an electromobility strategy in place to drive the growth of alternative powertrain vehicles. Chinese companies have an early-mover advantage in the electrification of public transportation in Latin America. The top 3 OEMs in the medium and heavy-duty bus segments–Daimler, Traton (MAN & Scania), and Scania–take the contribution of European OEMs to more than three-fourths of the bus market in the region. Chinese OEMs, such as Foton, Zhongtong, Yutong, Kinglong, and BYD, establishing their presence in the region, are expected to compete aggressively with European OEMs in the medium term. Major cities in Latin America aim to replace public passenger transport fleets with EVs. The separation of asset ownership and operation (e.g., battery, bodywork, electric bus, maintenance) and other financing models (e.g., leasing) will be necessary to renew urban transportation buses. The growing ecosystem of truck OEMs, bodybuilders, and fleets that cater to this demand will positively impact allied sectors. Author: Saideep Sudhakar
More Information
Author Saideep Sudhakar
Industries Automotive
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Is Prebook No
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WIP Number PDD7-01-00-00-00