Macroeconomic and Automotive Prospects of Select Latin American and Caribbean Countries, Forecast to 2023

Description

This research tracks the economies of Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Jamaica, Panama, and Puerto Rico. The research provides insights into the macroeconomic and automotive outlook for these select Latin American and Caribbean economies, with forecasts until 2023. Topic areas analysed include gross domestic product (GDP) growth, labour market, and light vehicles sales outlook for the countries in focus. In regards to GDP growth, while Costa Rica, Guatemala, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to see their growth rate marginally rise over the forecast period, Dominican Republic and Panama are expected to see a marginal growth dip while nonetheless maintaining strong growth rates of over 5%. Puerto Rico however continues to remain in recession, with growth expected to remain negative until 2024. Emergence from recession by 2025 is expected, especially supported by widespread reform activities. Potential attainment of statehood by 2025 is expected to help bring in more funding and further accelerate medium-term growth. With regards to unemployment, all the countries are expected to see unemployment rates decline in the forecast period. The declining trend in Puerto Rico however is not so much a positive trend, because it is largely being driven migration, with skilled workers especially looking to migrate from the country. Guatemala has amongst the lowest unemployment rates amongst the countries in focus, with an unemployment rate of 2.3% in 2018, that is expected to dip to 2.0% by 2019, especially supported by a pick-up in economic activity. While Guatemala’s official unemployment is low, informality levels however are high. Trinidad and Tobago saw its unemployment rise in 2018, with unemployment levels expected to slide going forward, since the country has emerged from recession. Looking at the light vehicles sales outlook, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Jamaica are expected to see sluggish growth over the forecast period while Dominic Republic, Panama a