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Weak Economic Growth Expected in 2020, with Panama and the Dominican Republic as Bright Spots
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The global economy is struggling to stay afloat, on account of the unprecedented economic damages triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak. Without exception, similar economic struggles are being felt in the Latin American and Caribbean regions. Frost and Sullivan has analyzed the scale of impact on their GDP growth and other macroeconomic elements, factoring in the constantly evolving elements of this crisis.The research presents an integrated macroeconomic outlook for 7 countries in the region to determine their growth trajectory until 2026. The countries covered in the research are: Puerto Rico, Panama, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala.2020 growth outlook for the regions remain grim, with a few economies expected to avert severe downturn. To provide a comprehensive picture of all the 7 economies, the research includes an analysis of the expected direction of the monetary policy. The regions are likely to experience a historically low cost of borrowing in 2020, in tandem with the low global interest rate. Economies that are trade-, tourism-, and oil-dependent stand to be disproportionately affected by the crisis.The research also puts in perspective the implications of the disruptions on global and the US’ GDP growth for comparison. In addition, it delineates the consequent impact on the LAC region. US policy changes on several fronts such as trade wars, foreign aid, and migration will alter policy decisions for LAC as well. A ceasefire of trade wars should re-orient the global supply chain, with LAC expected to gain in exports. Lastly, the research provides insights into trade agreements pertinent to the regions, such as the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).Based on a complete assessment of the macroeconomic situation, Frost & Sullivan determines growth opportunities for businesses in these regions that could be leveraged to drive growth for companies.
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