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Future Growth Potential in a COVID-19-Impacted Global Economy
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While the global economy is experiencing its worst disruption in decades with uncertainties surrounding the magnitude of COVID-19’s impact, a way forward persists. In this research, Frost & Sullivan analyzes the scale of impact on global gross domestic product (GDP) growth and other critical macroeconomic elements such as unemployment, inflation, and trade. The research presents the macroeconomic outlook for 2020, factoring in the constantly-evolving aspects of the pandemic while also providing insight into the trajectory of other key macroeconomic variables for specific countries and regions. Based on the trend analysis and recovery outlook, Frost & Sullivan has detailed economic growth opportunities for businesses in this time of crisis. From an upsurge in the adoption of remote working models to new supply chain strategies, the report defines the context of these opportunities and the call to action for businesses that should be leveraged to drive growth. Similarly, the research identifies and expands on the top strategic imperatives for companies to ensure growth during these uncertain times.
The geographic scope includes analysis and key metrics for countries severely impacted by the COVID-19 health crisis such as the United States, China, Brazil, and India. Domestic demand and industrial production are particularly vulnerable due to the worsening employment and growth outlook for 2020.
A key feature of this study is the comparative analysis of other geopolitical shocks that occurred in the past 20 years, including the 9/11 attacks, global financial crisis, and crude oil crisis, and their implications for global GDP growth, unemployment, and trade. A region-specific breakdown of the impact of geopolitical events highlights indicates the effect of COVID-19 is likely to be more pronounced than the global financial crisis across all regions. In addition to assessing impact, the report puts in perspective recovery expectations and regional variances depending on the severity of the outbreak and the extent of government response.
For example, governments across the globe have rolled out unprecedented fiscal stimulus packages to tackle the virus. A thorough study of global COVID-19 stimulus trends unveils that the packages offered by developed economies outweigh the ones provided by emerging markets. Major developed economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy have allocated more than 10% of GDP as part of their largest stimulus packages. The global recovery process is expected to begin in 2021.
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