Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States—Last-mile B2C Delivery

Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States—Last-mile B2C Delivery

Transformational Growth of Autonomous Vehicle Adoption to Result in 31.4% Autonomously-driven Last-mile B2C Deliveries in 2040

RELEASE DATE
09-Nov-2022
REGION
North America
Research Code: PDB3-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02439-NA-MT_27099
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Description

Autonomous trucks are the next logical step to overcome logistics bottlenecks and match pace with the rapidly changing freight carriage ecosystem. Unlike human drivers, who must limit their operating hours to remain safe, autonomous systems can operate trucks 24-7, increasing commodity flow in the freight value system. Several leading automotive OEMs have taken the initiative to develop and test their autonomous technologies, while some have invested in emerging technology start-ups.

The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines 5 levels of vehicle automation. The higher the level, the higher the transfer of driving responsibility to machines, with L4 and L5 being very high automation. Each segment of transportation has scope for automation. The level of complexity varies, but for journeys ranging in length, from last-mile delivery and utility applications within a city to interstate long-haul transport, automated vehicles can change the transportation landscape.

This report focuses on the last-mile B2C delivery segment, where the product reaches the customer’s location. It can include food and groceries from a neighborhood store or eCommerce parcels from local fulfillment centers. The routes are usually multistop, with deliveries at multiple customer locations in a single trip, and the weight of the goods varies.

The report analyzes application-wise retail sales data in the last-mile B2C delivery segment to calculate the potential total vehicles in operation, catered by Class 1 to 6 commercial vehicles. The total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption within the addressable market (SAAM) are calculated for 2022, 2030, and 2040 by grass root analysis of each metropolitan area and phase-wise segregation of adoption.

Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, 31.4% of the last-mile B2C delivery segment will be catered by autonomous Class 1 to 6 vehicles, and the total autonomous revenue will be approximately $69.98 B.

Author: Christus Divyan

Table of Contents

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Levels of Vehicle Automation

Impact of SAE Definitions

Different Territorial Avenues for Automation

Breakdown for Last-mile Delivery Operations

Delivery Modes in Last-mile B2C—Conventional versus Autonomous

Autonomous Companies’ Testing/Deployment Landscape

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Autonomous Technology Segmentation

Growth Drivers

Growth Restraints

Growth Metrics

Forecast Methodology

Total US Retail Sales—All Major Last-mile Segment Applications

Segment Classification #1—Auto Parts & Accessories

Segment Classification #2—Home Decor & Hardware

Segment Classification #3—Electronics & Appliances

Segment Classification #4—Grocery & Other Necessities

Segment Classification #5—Nonstore Retailer

Segment Classification #6—Other Merchandise

Class 1–6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO

Selection of Top 384 Metropolitan Areas for Autonomous Score

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness—Population Score

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness—Population Density

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness—Consumption Score

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness—Age Group Score

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness—Regulation Score

Phase 1 Metropolitan Area Selection—Forecasting TAAM & SAAM

Phase 2 Metropolitan Area Selection—Forecasting TAAM & SAAM

Phase 3 Metropolitan Area Selection—Forecasting TAAM & SAAM

Summary of Metropolitan Area Selection—Forecasting TAAM & SAAM

Total Class 1–6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO—Application-wise Split

Total Class 1–6 Last-mile B2C Delivery TAAM VIO—Application-wise Split

Total Class 1–6 Last-mile B2C Delivery SAAM VIO—Application-wise Spilt

Total Class 1–6 Last-mile B2C Delivery—Revenue Forecast

Class 1–6 Autonomous Vehicles in Last-mile B2C Delivery—Units & Revenue Potential

Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity 1—Favorable Autonomous Regulations

Growth Opportunity 1—Favorable Autonomous Regulations (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2—Autonomous Revenue Potential

Growth Opportunity 2—Autonomous Revenue Potential (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3—New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions

Growth Opportunity 3—New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

Autonomous trucks are the next logical step to overcome logistics bottlenecks and match pace with the rapidly changing freight carriage ecosystem. Unlike human drivers, who must limit their operating hours to remain safe, autonomous systems can operate trucks 24-7, increasing commodity flow in the freight value system. Several leading automotive OEMs have taken the initiative to develop and test their autonomous technologies, while some have invested in emerging technology start-ups. The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines 5 levels of vehicle automation. The higher the level, the higher the transfer of driving responsibility to machines, with L4 and L5 being very high automation. Each segment of transportation has scope for automation. The level of complexity varies, but for journeys ranging in length, from last-mile delivery and utility applications within a city to interstate long-haul transport, automated vehicles can change the transportation landscape. This report focuses on the last-mile B2C delivery segment, where the product reaches the customer’s location. It can include food and groceries from a neighborhood store or eCommerce parcels from local fulfillment centers. The routes are usually multistop, with deliveries at multiple customer locations in a single trip, and the weight of the goods varies. The report analyzes application-wise retail sales data in the last-mile B2C delivery segment to calculate the potential total vehicles in operation, catered by Class 1 to 6 commercial vehicles. The total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption within the addressable market (SAAM) are calculated for 2022, 2030, and 2040 by grass root analysis of each metropolitan area and phase-wise segregation of adoption. Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, 31.4% of the last-mile B2C delivery segment will be catered by autonomous Class 1 to 6 vehicles, and the total autonomous revenue will be approximately $69.98 B. Author: Christus Divyan
More Information
Author Christus Divyan
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Podcast No
WIP Number PDB3-01-00-00-00