Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States: Long Haul & Regional Haul

Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States: Long Haul & Regional Haul

By 2040, L4 Autonomous Long Haul & Regional Haul Freight will Comprise 22% of Total US Freight

RELEASE DATE
05-Oct-2022
REGION
North America
Research Code: PD74-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02417-NA-MT_26969
AvailableYesPDF Download

$4,950.00

Special Price $4,207.50 save 15 %

In stock
SKU
AU02417-NA-MT_26969

$4,950.00

$4,207.50save 15 %

DownloadLink
ENQUIRE NOW

Description

Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operation could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but by when and starting where remain key questions.

Frost & Sullivan has scored all long haul and regional haul routes within the United States on key factors such as freight transported, weather, and regulations to determine the phase of autonomous readiness. Based on the scoring of route factors and phase segregation, Frost & Sullivan derived the total addressable autonomous market (TAAM). Potentially 945,775 million ton-miles of long haul routes could be autonomous-ready by 2040, which comprises approximately 44% of the total US freight for that year. By the same year, about 420,905 million ton-miles of regional haul freight movement will have the potential for driverless transport. The total market potential for autonomous-ready freight movement is approximately 1,366,680 million ton-miles. As with any new disruptive technology, the share of autonomous adoption will initially comprise innovators (less than 3%) and early adopters.

By 2040, autonomous trucking adoption will have been growing rapidly and could become the mainstream trucking model thereafter. Revenue potential hinges on factors involving application-specific freight rates, route readiness phase, and autonomous miles travelled. Starting at $1 billion in 2028, revenue potential will rapidly increase in line with the rate of adoption to reach a potential $110 billion in 2040.

In summary, from 0.2% of total US freight being L4 autonomous transported in 2028 to 22.3% in 2040, and with huge revenue potential, autonomous trucks are on route to transform the trucking industry in the next 2 decades.

Author: Christus Divyan

Table of Contents

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Level 4 (L4) Autonomous Truck Market

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Levels of Vehicle Automation

Impact of SAE Definitions

Benefits of High-level Vehicle Automation

Different Territorial Avenues for Automation

Different Segments of Transportation: Rate of Autonomous Adoption

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Autonomous Technology Segmentation

Growth Drivers

Growth Restraints

Growth Metrics

L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Forecast Assumptions

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Phases 1, 2, and 3

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Regulation

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Weather

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: AV Players

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Economic Score

Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Safety Score

Long Haul Phase 1: Los Angeles to Dallas-Fort Worth

Long Haul Phase 1: Los Angeles to Orlando

Long Haul Phase 1: Dallas-Fort Worth to Raleigh-Durham

Long Haul Phase 1: Houston to Salt Lake City

Long Haul Phase 1: Dallas-Fort Worth to Denver

Long Haul Phase 1: Chicago to Los Angeles

Long Haul Phase 1: San Francisco to Cleveland

Long Haul Phase 1: Los Angeles to New York

Long Haul Phase 1: Consolidation

Long Haul Phase 2: Consolidation

Long Haul Phase 3: Consolidation

Regional Haul Phase 1

Regional Haul Phase 2

Regional Haul Phase 3

TAAM: Routes/States

TAAM: In Ton-miles

SAAM

SAAM as a % of TAAM and Total US Freight Transported

Autonomous Revenue Potential Forecast: In Billion USD

Autonomous Market Potential: A Snapshot

Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity 1: Collaboration to Ease Regulations in Major Freight Routes or Accelerate Autonomous Readiness

Growth Opportunity 1: Collaboration to Ease Regulations in Major Freight Routes or Accelerate Autonomous Readiness (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: $110 Billion in Autonomous Revenue Potential by 2040 as Lucrative Business Avenues for New Stakeholders

Growth Opportunity 2: $110 Billion in Autonomous Revenue Potential by 2040 as Lucrative Business Avenues for New Stakeholders (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Expansion into Newer Applications and Diverse Operation Conditions to Gain Market Share of Early Adopters

Growth Opportunity 3: Expansion into Newer Applications and Diverse Operation Conditions to Gain Market Share of Early Adopters (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operation could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but by when and starting where remain key questions. Frost & Sullivan has scored all long haul and regional haul routes within the United States on key factors such as freight transported, weather, and regulations to determine the phase of autonomous readiness. Based on the scoring of route factors and phase segregation, Frost & Sullivan derived the total addressable autonomous market (TAAM). Potentially 945,775 million ton-miles of long haul routes could be autonomous-ready by 2040, which comprises approximately 44% of the total US freight for that year. By the same year, about 420,905 million ton-miles of regional haul freight movement will have the potential for driverless transport. The total market potential for autonomous-ready freight movement is approximately 1,366,680 million ton-miles. As with any new disruptive technology, the share of autonomous adoption will initially comprise innovators (less than 3%) and early adopters. By 2040, autonomous trucking adoption will have been growing rapidly and could become the mainstream trucking model thereafter. Revenue potential hinges on factors involving application-specific freight rates, route readiness phase, and autonomous miles travelled. Starting at $1 billion in 2028, revenue potential will rapidly increase in line with the rate of adoption to reach a potential $110 billion in 2040. In summary, from 0.2% of total US freight being L4 autonomous transported in 2028 to 22.3% in 2040, and with huge revenue potential, autonomous trucks are on route to transform the trucking industry in the next 2 decades. Author: Christus Divyan
More Information
Author Christus Divyan
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Podcast No
WIP Number PD74-01-00-00-00