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Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States: Long Haul & Regional Haul
By 2040, L4 Autonomous Long Haul & Regional Haul Freight will Comprise 22% of Total US Freight
05-Oct-2022
North America
Market Research
PD74-01-00-00-00
AU02417-NA-MT_26969
Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operation could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but by when and starting where remain key questions.
Frost & Sullivan has scored all long haul and regional haul routes within the United States on key factors such as freight transported, weather, and regulations to determine the phase of autonomous readiness. Based on the scoring of route factors and phase segregation, Frost & Sullivan derived the total addressable autonomous market (TAAM). Potentially 945,775 million ton-miles of long haul routes could be autonomous-ready by 2040, which comprises approximately 44% of the total US freight for that year. By the same year, about 420,905 million ton-miles of regional haul freight movement will have the potential for driverless transport. The total market potential for autonomous-ready freight movement is approximately 1,366,680 million ton-miles. As with any new disruptive technology, the share of autonomous adoption will initially comprise innovators (less than 3%) and early adopters.
By 2040, autonomous trucking adoption will have been growing rapidly and could become the mainstream trucking model thereafter. Revenue potential hinges on factors involving application-specific freight rates, route readiness phase, and autonomous miles travelled. Starting at $1 billion in 2028, revenue potential will rapidly increase in line with the rate of adoption to reach a potential $110 billion in 2040.
In summary, from 0.2% of total US freight being L4 autonomous transported in 2028 to 22.3% in 2040, and with huge revenue potential, autonomous trucks are on route to transform the trucking industry in the next 2 decades.
Author: Christus Divyan
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Level 4 (L4) Autonomous Truck Market
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Levels of Vehicle Automation
Impact of SAE Definitions
Benefits of High-level Vehicle Automation
Different Territorial Avenues for Automation
Different Segments of Transportation: Rate of Autonomous Adoption
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Autonomous Technology Segmentation
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Growth Metrics
L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Forecast Assumptions
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Phases 1, 2, and 3
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Regulation
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Weather
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: AV Players
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Economic Score
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness: Safety Score
Long Haul Phase 1: Los Angeles to Dallas-Fort Worth
Long Haul Phase 1: Los Angeles to Orlando
Long Haul Phase 1: Dallas-Fort Worth to Raleigh-Durham
Long Haul Phase 1: Houston to Salt Lake City
Long Haul Phase 1: Dallas-Fort Worth to Denver
Long Haul Phase 1: Chicago to Los Angeles
Long Haul Phase 1: San Francisco to Cleveland
Long Haul Phase 1: Los Angeles to New York
Long Haul Phase 1: Consolidation
Long Haul Phase 2: Consolidation
Long Haul Phase 3: Consolidation
Regional Haul Phase 1
Regional Haul Phase 2
Regional Haul Phase 3
TAAM: Routes/States
TAAM: In Ton-miles
SAAM
SAAM as a % of TAAM and Total US Freight Transported
Autonomous Revenue Potential Forecast: In Billion USD
Autonomous Market Potential: A Snapshot
Key Takeaways
Growth Opportunity 1: Collaboration to Ease Regulations in Major Freight Routes or Accelerate Autonomous Readiness
Growth Opportunity 1: Collaboration to Ease Regulations in Major Freight Routes or Accelerate Autonomous Readiness (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2: $110 Billion in Autonomous Revenue Potential by 2040 as Lucrative Business Avenues for New Stakeholders
Growth Opportunity 2: $110 Billion in Autonomous Revenue Potential by 2040 as Lucrative Business Avenues for New Stakeholders (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3: Expansion into Newer Applications and Diverse Operation Conditions to Gain Market Share of Early Adopters
Growth Opportunity 3: Expansion into Newer Applications and Diverse Operation Conditions to Gain Market Share of Early Adopters (continued)
Your Next Steps
Why Frost, Why Now?
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Levels of Vehicle Automation, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: SAE Definition, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Benefits of High-level Vehicle Automation, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Different Territorial Avenues for Automation, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Logic Flow, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Autonomous Level Segmentation, US, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Growth Drivers, United States, 2023–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Growth Restraints, United States, 2023–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Growth Metrics US, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Forecast Assumptions, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Factors That Impact Autonomous Route Readiness, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Impact of Regulation, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 1 Routes Scoring, Impact of Weather, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Impact of Autonomous Players Testing Zone, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Impact of Economic Importance, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Impact of Safety, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 1 Routes Scoring, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 1 Routes Scoring, United States, 2022
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 1 Consolidation, Long Haul, United States, 2022–2028
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 2 Consolidation, Long Haul, United States, 2028–2034
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 3 Consolidation, Long Haul, United States, 2034–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 1 Consolidation, Regional Haul, United States, 2022–2028
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 2 Consolidation, Regional Haul, United States, 2028–2034
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 3 Consolidation, Regional Haul, United States, 2034–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: TAAM (In Routes), US, 2022–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: TAAM (In Million Ton-miles), United States, 2022–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: SAAM (as a % of TAAM), United States, 2022–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Summary (TAAM and SAAM), United States, 2022–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Revenue Potential Forecast (In $B), United States, 2022–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Autonomous Potential Snapshot, US, 2022–2040
- L4 Autonomous Market Potential: Phase 1 Routes Scoring, United States, 2022
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