Strategic Insight into the Global Autonomous Shuttle Market, Forecast to 2030

Strategic Insight into the Global Autonomous Shuttle Market, Forecast to 2030

Autonomous Shuttles to Constitute 50% of the DRT Market; Cost Considerations, Fleet Efficiency, and Wide-Ranging Use Cases as the Key Driving Forces

RELEASE DATE
23-Aug-2019
REGION
Europe
Research Code: MEA6-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU01872-GL-MR_23371

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Description

The advent of new mobility services such as carsharing, bikesharing, ridesharing, ride hailing, and demand responsive transit (DRT) has brought the concept of shared mobility to center stage. Growing environmental concerns, congestion, lack of parking, vertical expansion in most emerging cities, and smart city initiatives have spearheaded a new revolution in mobility – from single occupancy (ride hailing) to multiple occupancy shared mobility (ride sharing, DRT).

Advanced technology platforms are being leveraged that help improve fleet optimization and precise fleet sizing across all mobility modes. Autonomous mobility services are emerging as an amalgamation of all possible solutions to urban mobility issues – highly efficient fleets that operate for more than 20 hours in a day, shared mobility services, compact vehicles, and limited number of active vehicles on the roads.
This study analyzes the emerging autonomous shuttle mobility market from different perspectives – stakeholder ecosystem and the growing significance of OEMs, autonomous startups, technology platforms and cities, regulatory outlook and commercialization potential, possible business and revenue models, cost comparisons, the importance of data and data sharing, and the global market outlook. Autonomous vehicle designing, parking, maintenance and repair, and insurance are some of the key markets that are expected to be disrupted by the advent of autonomous shuttles.

While commercialization in developed markets is expected by 2019, commercial autonomous shuttle services are expected post-2021 in emerging markets. Commercialization, however, will require substantial capital investment due to factors such as low awareness, low utilization rates, and high initial capital outlay for operations. Government funding will play a critical role in determining success for the market. Cities and transit agencies will be instrumental in implementing the services – integrating autonomous shuttle into the public transit system. Determining proper use cases and deploying the shuttles accordingly will lead to higher adoption and uptake rates. The current use case typically includes last mile connectivity; however, it can be expanded to suit a wide range of mobility requirements across geofenced and non-geofenced operations - in the short run, autonomous shuttles are expected to continue being geofenced and supervised. In the mid to long term, autonomous shuttles will gradually move towards being unsupervised and will operate on non-geofenced routes.

The autonomous shuttle market is currently dominated by vehicle manufacturers and technology platforms such as Easymile, Navya, Aptiv, May Mobility, Bestmile, Oxbotica, and Sensible 4. However, it is expected that all service providers will move towards becoming a platform – controlling every part of the value chain.

As the market evolves, new business models such as autonomous delivery and logistics services are expected to gain significance. A number of pilots, including pilots by OEMs such as Ford and GM, are being undertaken for autonomous deliveries.

With robust market potential and growth trajectory, the autonomous shuttle market is expected to constitute 50% of the demand responsive transit market by 2030.

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

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Table of Contents

Key Findings

Transition from Single Occupancy Shared Mobility towards Shared Mobility Modes

Key Application Areas of Geofenced Autonomous Shuttles

Key Application Areas of Non-Geofenced Autonomous Shuttles

Initiatives Across the Globe—Public-Private Integration

Snapshot of the Key Markets—Feasibility Analysis and Timeline

Market Developments

Market Developments (continued)

Regulatory Landscape

Regulatory Landscape (continued)

Key Findings and Future Outlook

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

Research Background

Research Methodology

Autonomous Shuttle Market—Segmentation

Demand-Responsive Transit—Market Definitions

Value Chain and Business Models

Pricing Models

O&M—Cost Assumptions

O&M Scenario—Operating Factors

O&M Scenario—Cost Analysis

Major OEM Strategy—Stepwise Introduction of Automated Driving (AD)

Future Roadmap—Autonomous Driving

Expanding Demand—Benefits and Applications of Autonomous Shuttles

Market Potential for Autonomous Shuttles across Applications

Value Chain Analysis—Aftermarket Solution Providers

Value Chain Analysis—Aftermarket Solution Providers (continued)

Value Chain Analysis—Aftermarket Solution Providers (continued)

Data Analytics—Leveraging Data as well as Providing User Insights

Data Analytics—Leveraging Data as well as Providing User Insights (continued)

Data Analytics—Leveraging Data as well as Providing User Insights (continued)

Mobility Use Case 1— Lyft

Technology Use Case 1—HERE’s Real-time Traffic Service

Autonomous Shuttle Manufacturing Startups

Autonomous Shuttle Technology Startups

Impending Advent of Automated Taxis

The Emerging Urban Mobility Landscape

Real Impact of Autonomous Shuttles—Boost to Economy

Regulatory Outlook—North America: United States

Regulatory Outlook—North America: Canada

Regulatory Outlook—Europe

Regulatory Outlook—Europe (continued)

Regulatory Outlook—Asia: China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea

Regulatory Outlook—Asia: China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea (continued)

Regulatory Outlook—Oceania: Australia and New Zealand

Regulatory Outlook—Oceania: Australia and New Zealand (continued)

Regulatory Outlook—The Middle East: Dubai (UAE)

2025 Cost Comparison—Autonomous Shuttles vs. Traditional Shuttles

Autonomous Shuttles and Cost Remodelling—2017 vs. 2025

Evolution of Autonomous Shuttles

Impact of Blockchain Technology on the Autonomous Shuttles

Navya—Company Profile

Bestmile—Company Profile

May Mobility—Company Profile

Postbus—Company Profile

Transdev—Company Profile

Ridecell—Company Profile

Driverless Delivery Shuttles

Driverless Delivery Shuttles (continued)

Autonomous Car Concepts

Autonomous Car Concepts (continued)

Autonomous Car Concepts (continued)

Autonomous Shuttles Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis

Autonomous Shuttles Revenue Forecast Scenario Analysis

Market Opportunities

Key Conclusions and Future Outlook

Growth Opportunity—Partnerships, New Business Models, and New Technology

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used (continued)

Market Engineering Methodology

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Related Research
The advent of new mobility services such as carsharing, bikesharing, ridesharing, ride hailing, and demand responsive transit (DRT) has brought the concept of shared mobility to center stage. Growing environmental concerns, congestion, lack of parking, vertical expansion in most emerging cities, and smart city initiatives have spearheaded a new revolution in mobility – from single occupancy (ride hailing) to multiple occupancy shared mobility (ride sharing, DRT). Advanced technology platforms are being leveraged that help improve fleet optimization and precise fleet sizing across all mobility modes. Autonomous mobility services are emerging as an amalgamation of all possible solutions to urban mobility issues – highly efficient fleets that operate for more than 20 hours in a day, shared mobility services, compact vehicles, and limited number of active vehicles on the roads. This study analyzes the emerging autonomous shuttle mobility market from different perspectives – stakeholder ecosystem and the growing significance of OEMs, autonomous startups, technology platforms and cities, regulatory outlook and commercialization potential, possible business and revenue models, cost comparisons, the importance of data and data sharing, and the global market outlook. Autonomous vehicle designing, parking, maintenance and repair, and insurance are some of the key markets that are expected to be disrupted by the advent of autonomous shuttles. While commercialization in developed markets is expected by 2019, commercial autonomous shuttle services are expected post-2021 in emerging markets. Commercialization, however, will require substantial capital investment due to factors such as low awareness, low utilization rates, and high initial capital outlay for operations. Government funding will play a critical role in determining success for the market. Cities and transit agencies will be instrumental in implementing the services – integrating autonomous shuttle into the public transit system. Determining proper use cases and deploying the shuttles accordingly will lead to higher adoption and uptake rates. The current use case typically includes last mile connectivity; however, it can be expanded to suit a wide range of mobility requirements across geofenced and non-geofenced operations - in the short run, autonomous shuttles are expected to continue being geofenced and supervised. In the mid to long term, autonomous shuttles will gradually move towards being unsupervised and will operate on non-geofenced routes. The autonomous shuttle market is currently dominated by vehicle manufacturers and technology platforms such as Easymile, Navya, Aptiv, May Mobility, Bestmile, Oxbotica, and Sensible 4. However, it is expected that all service providers will move towards becoming a platform – controlling every part of the value chain. As the market evolves, new business models such as autonomous delivery and logistics services are expected to gain significance. A number of pilots, including pilots by OEMs such as Ford and GM, are being undertaken for autonomous deliveries. With robust market potential and growth trajectory, the autonomous shuttle market is expected to constitute 50% of the demand responsive transit market by 2030.
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Predecessor None
Author Ayush Patodia
Industries Automotive
WIP Number MEA6-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9673-A6,9800-A6,9807-A6,9801-A6,9A57-A6