Strategic Overview of Automotive Aftermarket in Russia, Forecast to 2024

This research study provides the growth prospects for the Russian automotive aftermarket, covering the Class 1-3 vehicles aftermarket in terms of volume (million units) and value (€ million). The base year for analysis is 2017 and the forecast period is 2018–2024. It includes analyses of vehicles in operation, new and used vehicle sales, and parts replacement revenues in the automotive aftermarket. The study discusses industry challenges and the growth opportunities offered by new and used car markets in the aftermarket ecosystem. It also includes the profiles of major aftermarket participants such as FIT service, Lada, Exist.ru, Emex.ru, Autodoc, Euroauto, and Autocity.

Plunging oil prices, combined with international sanctions imposed on Russia, pushed the economy to a mild recession in 2015. The economy is on the road to recovery; however, the growth rate is expected to be moderate during the forecast period. Slow economic growth and reduced purchasing power lead to an increase in used vehicle sales and high concentration of >10-year-old vehicle parc. These vehicles have higher service requirements. Moreover, the rough terrain and harsh climatic conditions further increase the wear and tear of vehicles components such as suspension, brakes, tires, filters, and other components. This increases the revenue potential for aftermarket participants.

The automotive sector is favored by various state support mechanisms such as scrappage schemes, trade-in programs, auto credit, and leasing subsidies. These schemes were effective to a certain level during the crisis period and, if extended, will benefit the auto sales market and bring it back to the pre-economic crisis levels in the long-term period.

The introduction of various state measures such as tax exemptions and subsidies for logistics and certification procedures aims to drive localization and increase the level of automotive exports from Russia. These measures, coupled with low currency valuation, will make it profitable for foreign OEMs to establish production bases in Russia and increase their exports to European and Eurasian markets. This will further benefit the components ecosystem, as local suppliers are expected to collaborate with foreign manufacturers to gain the technical know-how involved in the manufacture of complex auto components.