The Maize and Wheat Flour Market in Kenya, Forecast to 2020

Growing B2B Demand for Wheat Flour Calls for Business Model Changes Involving Vertical Integration and Local Sourcing Strategies

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The Kenyan maize and wheat flour market will show strong growth (CAGR of 7.3%) over the next 5 years as changing consumer preferences for wheat flour, improving retail accessibility, and increasing market sophistication drive demand. Worth $738.1 million in 2015, the Kenyan wheat flour market is expected to reach $1.15 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 9.2%, accounting for 47.2% of the market by 2020. In comparison, the commercial maize flour market is expected to increase from $315.8 million in 2015 to $444.0 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 7.1%, while posho maize flour will increase from $658.2 million in 2015 to $840.2 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 5.0%.

Both the wheat and commercial maize flour markets in Kenya are very competitive, dominated by Tier I participants. The commercial maize flour market has an additional segment to compete with besides wheat flour—posho flour. Posho millers provide inferior-quality flour at cheaper prices for price-sensitive consumers, and comprise the bulk of the maize flour market in Kenya.

Tier I market competitors involved in both wheat and commercial maize milling include Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM), Diamond Lalji Group (DLG), Pembe-Kitui, and Unga Group Limited. TSS Grain Millers (wheat milling), Uzuri Food Limited (wheat milling), and Alpha Grain Millers (maize milling) conclude the list of Tier I competitors. Tier II and Tier III competitors are also mentioned, as well as the estimated milling capacities of Tier I, II, and III participants. Five key growth opportunities as well as critical success factors are highlighted.

Geographic scope: Kenya
Product scope: Wheat flour, commercial maize flour, and posho maize flour
Application scope: Business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C)
Study period: 2013 to 2020

Objectives of the study:
•     Provide an overview of the African growth path to 2020 and the East African context for the Kenyan analysis through a PESTLE analysis
•     Provide an overview of the maize and wheat milling industry in Kenya, splitting the maize segment into commercial versus posho maize flour
•     Outline the main drivers and restraints impacting the 2 major segments: commercial maize flour and wheat flour
•     Outline the value chains and distribution flows of the 3 segments
•     Provide market metrics and forecast the 3 segments (2013 to 2020)
•     Highlight key growth opportunities in the Kenyan maize and wheat flour market

Key target audience:
•     Current market participants
•     Potential new entrants
•     Grain traders
•     Potential investors
•     Financial institutions

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Key Findings
2. Study Scope and Introduction
Scope of the Study
Introduction to Maize and Wheat Milling in Kenya
Market Definitions
Abbreviations
3. The African Growth Path—Kenya and East Africa
Forecasted GDP CAGRs for African Countries (2015–2020)
Kenyan Regional Integration
EAC’s Contribution to the African Growth Path
4. PESTLE Analysis—Kenya and East Africa
PESTLE Analysis for Kenya and EAC
Political Situation in EAC Countries
Role of Agriculture in the EAC
Public Sector Involvement in Agriculture—Kenya
Private Sector Involvement in Agriculture—Kenya
Economic Indicators in EAC Countries
Social Indicators in EAC Countries
City Comparison—Population Statistics and Dominant Sectors
Technological Developments
Legal Environment
Environmental Analysis—Top Crops per Country
Environmental Analysis—Climate Change
Environmental Analysis—Infrastructure Development and Trade
5. Total Kenyan Maize and Wheat Flour Market
Market Overview
Market Overview—Grain and Flour
Market Dynamics—Key Trends Influencing Flows
Market Dynamics—Key Levers for B2B Demand Generation
Market Dynamics—Key Levers for B2C Demand Generation
Market Dynamics—Brand Equity
Market Dynamics—Barriers to Entry and Mitigation
Market Dynamics—Industry Disruptors and Dynamics
6. Kenyan Maize Flour Market
Formal versus Informal Maize Milling
Commercial Maize Flour—Drivers
Maize flour is a staple food item
Maize flour quality
Modernised retail is increasing
Commercial Maize Flour—Restraints
The maize milling market is very competitive
Consumer preference is shifting towards wheat flour
The influence of the NCPB on the market
Commercial Maize Flour—Domestic Consumption
Commercial Maize Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)
Commercial Maize Flour—Market Forecast
Posho Maize Flour—Domestic Consumption
Posho Maize Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)
Posho Maize Flour—Market Forecast
7. Kenyan Wheat Flour Market
Wheat Flour—Drivers
Increasing consumer demand for milled products
Increasingly sophisticated market
Modernised retail is increasing
Wheat Flour—Restraints
The wheat milling market is very competitive
Efficient distribution is hampered by space
Milling efficiencies are reduced by aging equipment
Market Overview—Wheat and Wheat Flour
Wheat Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)
Wheat Flour—Market Forecast
8. Competitive Analysis
Competitive Overview
Production Capacities (Metric Tonnes per 24 Hours)
Competitive Overview—Market Shares
Procurement and Distribution Models
Competitor Profiles—Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM)
Competitor Profiles—Diamond Lalji Group (DLG)
Competitor Profiles—Unga Group Limited
Competitor Profiles—Pembe Kitui
Competitor Profiles—Alpha Grain Millers Ltd
Competitor Profiles—Uzuri Foods Ltd
Competitor Profiles—Kabansora Millers Ltd
9. Conclusions
Competitive Markets Using Inefficient Mills
Increasing B2B Market Demand for Wheat Flour
10. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
Growth Opportunity 1—Business Diversification
Growth Opportunity 2—Achieving Economies of Scale
Growth Opportunity 3—Growing Importance of the B2B Market Segment for Wheat Flour
Growth Opportunity 4—Increasing Brand Awareness
Growth Opportunity 5—Local Sourcing Strategy is Required
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
Legal Disclaimer
11. The Frost & Sullivan Story


List of Figures & Charts

1. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Volumes , Kenya, 2015 and 2020
2. Forecasted GDP CAGRs, Africa, 2015–2020
3. Gross Domestic Product by Country or Region, EAC and Africa, 2010–2020
4. PESTLE Analysis Overview, Kenya and EAC, 2015
5. Country Governance Indicators*, East African Community, 2012–2014
6. Value of the Agricultural Sector, East African Community, 2010, 2014, and 2015
7. Economic Indicators, East African Community, 2014 and 2015
8. Social Indicators, East African Community, 2014 and 2015
9. Grain Consumption, Kenya, 2008–2013
10. Population Statistics, Kenya, 2009
11. Maize Imports—EAC Standards, Kenya, 2015
12. Wheat Flour Market: Fortification Nutrients, Kenya, 2015
13. Maize Flour Market: Fortification Nutrients, Kenya, 2015
14. Legal Environment—Selection of Taxes and Rates Charged, Kenya, 2015
15. Crop Production, Kenya, 2014
16. Crop Production, Uganda, 2013 & 2014
17. Crop Production, Tanzania, 2013 & 2014
18. Crop Production, Rwanda, 2013 & 2014
19. Crop Production, Burundi, 2013 & 2014
20. Crop Calendar Based on Rainfall, Kenya, 2015
21. Logistics Performance Index Ratings, Kenya, 2012, 2014, 2016
22. Maize and Wheat Trade—Import and Export Data (MT), Tanzania and Kenya, 2011–2015
23. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Volumes (Metric Tonnes), Kenya, 2015 and 2020
24. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Flour Prices, Kenya, 2015
25. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Per Capita, Kenya, 2015 and 2020
26. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2B Demand Generation Factors, Kenya, 2015
27. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2C Demand Generation Factors, Kenya, 2015
28. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Barriers to Entry and Mitigation, Kenya, 2015
29. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Packaged Maize Flour, Kenya, 2015
30. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Drivers, Kenya, 2016–2020
31. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Restraints, Kenya, 2016–2020
32. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015
33. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015
34. Posho Maize Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015
35. Posho Maize Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015
36. Wheat Flour Market: Drivers, Kenya, 2016–2020
37. Wheat Flour Market: Restraints, Kenya, 2016–2020
38. Wheat Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015
39. Wheat Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015
40. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Competitive Overview, Kenya, 2015
41. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Production Capacities, Kenya, 2015


1. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Retail Revenue, Kenya, 2015 and 2020
2. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015
3. Wheat Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015
4. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2B and B2C Categorisation, Kenya, 2015
5. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: LSM Categorisation, Kenya, 2015
6. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Retail Revenue, Kenya, 2015 and 2020
7. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Key Trends Influencing Flows, Kenya, 2015–2020
8. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015
9. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020
10. Posho Maize Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020
11. Wheat Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015
12. Wheat Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020
13. Maize Flour Market: Market Shares by Capacity, Kenya, 2015
14. Wheat Flour Market: Market Shares by Capacity, Kenya, 2015



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