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The Maize and Wheat Flour Market in Kenya, Forecast to 2020

The Maize and Wheat Flour Market in Kenya, Forecast to 2020

Growing B2B Demand for Wheat Flour Calls for Business Model Changes Involving Vertical Integration and Local Sourcing Strategies

RELEASE DATE
25-Oct-2016
REGION
Africa
Research Code: MC6F-01-00-00-00
SKU: FA00487-AF-MR_19129
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Description

The Kenyan maize and wheat flour market will show strong growth (CAGR of 7.3%) over the next 5 years as changing consumer preferences for wheat flour, improving retail accessibility, and increasing market sophistication drive demand. Worth $738.1 million in 2015, the Kenyan wheat flour market is expected to reach $1.15 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 9.2%, accounting for 47.2% of the market by 2020. In comparison, the commercial maize flour market is expected to increase from $315.8 million in 2015 to $444.0 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 7.1%, while posho maize flour will increase from $658.2 million in 2015 to $840.2 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 5.0%.

Both the wheat and commercial maize flour markets in Kenya are very competitive, dominated by Tier I participants. The commercial maize flour market has an additional segment to compete with besides wheat flour—posho flour. Posho millers provide inferior-quality flour at cheaper prices for price-sensitive consumers, and comprise the bulk of the maize flour market in Kenya.

Tier I market competitors involved in both wheat and commercial maize milling include Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM), Diamond Lalji Group (DLG), Pembe-Kitui, and Unga Group Limited. TSS Grain Millers (wheat milling), Uzuri Food Limited (wheat milling), and Alpha Grain Millers (maize milling) conclude the list of Tier I competitors. Tier II and Tier III competitors are also mentioned, as well as the estimated milling capacities of Tier I, II, and III participants. Five key growth opportunities as well as critical success factors are highlighted.

Geographic scope: Kenya
Product scope: Wheat flour, commercial maize flour, and posho maize flour
Application scope: Business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C)
Study period: 2013 to 2020

Objectives of the study:
•     Provide an overview of the African growth path to 2020 and the East African context for the Kenyan analysis through a PESTLE analysis
•     Provide an overview of the maize and wheat milling industry in Kenya, splitting the maize segment into commercial versus posho maize flour
•     Outline the main drivers and restraints impacting the 2 major segments: commercial maize flour and wheat flour
•     Outline the value chains and distribution flows of the 3 segments
•     Provide market metrics and forecast the 3 segments (2013 to 2020)
•     Highlight key growth opportunities in the Kenyan maize and wheat flour market

Key target audience:
•     Current market participants
•     Potential new entrants
•     Grain traders
•     Potential investors
•     Financial institutions

Table of Contents

Key Findings

Scope of the Study

Introduction to Maize and Wheat Milling in Kenya

Market Definitions

Abbreviations

Forecasted GDP CAGRs for African Countries (2015–2020)

Kenyan Regional Integration

EAC’s Contribution to the African Growth Path

PESTLE Analysis for Kenya and EAC

Political Situation in EAC Countries

Role of Agriculture in the EAC

Public Sector Involvement in Agriculture—Kenya

Private Sector Involvement in Agriculture—Kenya

Economic Indicators in EAC Countries

Social Indicators in EAC Countries

City Comparison—Population Statistics and Dominant Sectors

Technological Developments

Legal Environment

Environmental Analysis—Top Crops per Country

Environmental Analysis—Climate Change

Environmental Analysis—Infrastructure Development and Trade

Market Overview

Market Overview—Grain and Flour

Market Dynamics—Key Trends Influencing Flows

Market Dynamics—Key Levers for B2B Demand Generation

Market Dynamics—Key Levers for B2C Demand Generation

Market Dynamics—Brand Equity

Market Dynamics—Barriers to Entry and Mitigation

Market Dynamics—Industry Disruptors and Dynamics

Formal versus Informal Maize Milling

Commercial Maize Flour—Drivers

Commercial Maize Flour—Restraints

Commercial Maize Flour—Domestic Consumption

Commercial Maize Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)

Commercial Maize Flour—Market Forecast

Posho Maize Flour—Domestic Consumption

Posho Maize Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)

Posho Maize Flour—Market Forecast

Wheat Flour—Drivers

Wheat Flour—Restraints

Market Overview—Wheat and Wheat Flour

Wheat Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)

Wheat Flour—Market Forecast

Competitive Overview

Production Capacities (Metric Tonnes per 24 Hours)

Competitive Overview—Market Shares

Procurement and Distribution Models

Competitor Profiles—Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM)

Competitor Profiles—Diamond Lalji Group (DLG)

Competitor Profiles—Unga Group Limited

Competitor Profiles—Pembe Kitui

Competitor Profiles—Alpha Grain Millers Ltd

Competitor Profiles—Uzuri Foods Ltd

Competitor Profiles—Kabansora Millers Ltd

Competitive Markets Using Inefficient Mills

Increasing B2B Market Demand for Wheat Flour

Growth Opportunity 1—Business Diversification

Growth Opportunity 2—Achieving Economies of Scale

Growth Opportunity 3—Growing Importance of the B2B Market Segment for Wheat Flour

Growth Opportunity 4—Increasing Brand Awareness

Growth Opportunity 5—Local Sourcing Strategy is Required

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

Legal Disclaimer

List of Figures
  • 1. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Volumes , Kenya, 2015 and 2020
  • 2. Forecasted GDP CAGRs, Africa, 2015–2020
  • 3. Gross Domestic Product by Country or Region, EAC and Africa, 2010–2020
  • 4. PESTLE Analysis Overview, Kenya and EAC, 2015
  • 5. Country Governance Indicators*, East African Community, 2012–2014
  • 6. Value of the Agricultural Sector, East African Community, 2010, 2014, and 2015
  • 7. Economic Indicators, East African Community, 2014 and 2015
  • 8. Social Indicators, East African Community, 2014 and 2015
  • 9. Grain Consumption, Kenya, 2008–2013
  • 10. Population Statistics, Kenya, 2009
  • 11. Maize Imports—EAC Standards, Kenya, 2015
  • 12. Wheat Flour Market: Fortification Nutrients, Kenya, 2015
  • 13. Maize Flour Market: Fortification Nutrients, Kenya, 2015
  • 14. Legal Environment—Selection of Taxes and Rates Charged, Kenya, 2015
  • 15. Crop Production, Kenya, 2014
  • 16. Crop Production, Uganda, 2013 & 2014
  • 17. Crop Production, Tanzania, 2013 & 2014
  • 18. Crop Production, Rwanda, 2013 & 2014
  • 19. Crop Production, Burundi, 2013 & 2014
  • 20. Crop Calendar Based on Rainfall, Kenya, 2015
  • 21. Logistics Performance Index Ratings, Kenya, 2012, 2014, 2016
  • 22. Maize and Wheat Trade—Import and Export Data (MT), Tanzania and Kenya, 2011–2015
  • 23. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Volumes (Metric Tonnes), Kenya, 2015 and 2020
  • 24. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Flour Prices, Kenya, 2015
  • 25. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Per Capita, Kenya, 2015 and 2020
  • 26. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2B Demand Generation Factors, Kenya, 2015
  • 27. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2C Demand Generation Factors, Kenya, 2015
  • 28. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Barriers to Entry and Mitigation, Kenya, 2015
  • 29. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Packaged Maize Flour, Kenya, 2015
  • 30. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Drivers, Kenya, 2016–2020
  • 31. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Restraints, Kenya, 2016–2020
  • 32. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015
  • 33. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015
  • 34. Posho Maize Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015
  • 35. Posho Maize Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015
  • 36. Wheat Flour Market: Drivers, Kenya, 2016–2020
  • 37. Wheat Flour Market: Restraints, Kenya, 2016–2020
  • 38. Wheat Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015
  • 39. Wheat Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015
  • 40. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Competitive Overview, Kenya, 2015
  • 41. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Production Capacities, Kenya, 2015
List of Charts
  • 1. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Retail Revenue, Kenya, 2015 and 2020
  • 2. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015
  • 3. Wheat Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015
  • 4. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2B and B2C Categorisation, Kenya, 2015
  • 5. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: LSM Categorisation, Kenya, 2015
  • 6. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Retail Revenue, Kenya, 2015 and 2020
  • 7. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Key Trends Influencing Flows, Kenya, 2015–2020
  • 8. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015
  • 9. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020
  • 10. Posho Maize Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020
  • 11. Wheat Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015
  • 12. Wheat Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020
  • 13. Maize Flour Market: Market Shares by Capacity, Kenya, 2015
  • 14. Wheat Flour Market: Market Shares by Capacity, Kenya, 2015
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The Kenyan maize and wheat flour market will show strong growth (CAGR of 7.3%) over the next 5 years as changing consumer preferences for wheat flour, improving retail accessibility, and increasing market sophistication drive demand. Worth $738.1 million in 2015, the Kenyan wheat flour market is expected to reach $1.15 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 9.2%, accounting for 47.2% of the market by 2020. In comparison, the commercial maize flour market is expected to increase from $315.8 million in 2015 to $444.0 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 7.1%, while posho maize flour will increase from $658.2 million in 2015 to $840.2 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 5.0%. Both the wheat and commercial maize flour markets in Kenya are very competitive, dominated by Tier I participants. The commercial maize flour market has an additional segment to compete with besides wheat flour—posho flour. Posho millers provide inferior-quality flour at cheaper prices for price-sensitive consumers, and comprise the bulk of the maize flour market in Kenya. Tier I market competitors involved in both wheat and commercial maize milling include Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM), Diamond Lalji Group (DLG), Pembe-Kitui, and Unga Group Limited. TSS Grain Millers (wheat milling), Uzuri Food Limited (wheat milling), and Alpha Grain Millers (maize milling) conclude the list of Tier I competitors. Tier II and Tier III competitors are also mentioned, as well as the estimated milling capacities of Tier I, II, and III participants. Five key growth opportunities as well as critical success factors are highlighted. Geographic scope: Kenya Product scope: Wheat flour, commercial maize flour, and posho maize flour Application scope: Business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) Study period: 2013 to 2020 Objectives of the study: • Provide an overview of the African growth path to 2020 and the East African context for the Kenyan analysis through a PESTLE analysis • Provide an overview of the maize and wheat milli
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Table of Contents | Executive Summary~ || Key Findings~ | Study Scope and Introduction~ || Scope of the Study~ || Introduction to Maize and Wheat Milling in Kenya~ || Market Definitions~ || Abbreviations~ | The African Growth Path—Kenya and East Africa~ || Forecasted GDP CAGRs for African Countries (2015–2020)~ || Kenyan Regional Integration~ || EAC’s Contribution to the African Growth Path~ | PESTLE Analysis—Kenya and East Africa~ || PESTLE Analysis for Kenya and EAC~ || Political Situation in EAC Countries~ || Role of Agriculture in the EAC~ || Public Sector Involvement in Agriculture—Kenya~ || Private Sector Involvement in Agriculture—Kenya~ || Economic Indicators in EAC Countries~ || Social Indicators in EAC Countries~ || City Comparison—Population Statistics and Dominant Sectors~ || Technological Developments~ || Legal Environment~ || Environmental Analysis—Top Crops per Country~ || Environmental Analysis—Climate Change~ || Environmental Analysis—Infrastructure Development and Trade~ | Total Kenyan Maize and Wheat Flour Market~ || Market Overview~ || Market Overview—Grain and Flour~ || Market Dynamics—Key Trends Influencing Flows~ || Market Dynamics—Key Levers for B2B Demand Generation~ || Market Dynamics—Key Levers for B2C Demand Generation~ || Market Dynamics—Brand Equity~ || Market Dynamics—Barriers to Entry and Mitigation~ || Market Dynamics—Industry Disruptors and Dynamics~ | Kenyan Maize Flour Market~ || Formal versus Informal Maize Milling~ || Commercial Maize Flour—Drivers~ ||| Maize flour is a staple food item~ ||| Maize flour quality~ ||| Modernised retail is increasing~ || Commercial Maize Flour—Restraints~ ||| The maize milling market is very competitive~ ||| Consumer preference is shifting towards wheat flour~ ||| The influence of the NCPB on the market~ || Commercial Maize Flour—Domestic Consumption~ || Commercial Maize Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)~ || Commercial Maize Flour—Market Forecast~ || Posho Maize Flour—Domestic Consumption~ || Posho Maize Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)~ || Posho Maize Flour—Market Forecast~ | Kenyan Wheat Flour Market~ || Wheat Flour—Drivers~ ||| Increasing consumer demand for milled products~ ||| Increasingly sophisticated market~ ||| Modernised retail is increasing~ || Wheat Flour—Restraints~ ||| The wheat milling market is very competitive~ ||| Efficient distribution is hampered by space~ ||| Milling efficiencies are reduced by aging equipment~ || Market Overview—Wheat and Wheat Flour~ || Wheat Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)~ || Wheat Flour—Market Forecast~ | Competitive Analysis~ || Competitive Overview~ || Production Capacities (Metric Tonnes per 24 Hours)~ || Competitive Overview—Market Shares~ || Procurement and Distribution Models~ || Competitor Profiles—Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM)~ || Competitor Profiles—Diamond Lalji Group (DLG)~ || Competitor Profiles—Unga Group Limited~ || Competitor Profiles—Pembe Kitui~ || Competitor Profiles—Alpha Grain Millers Ltd~ || Competitor Profiles—Uzuri Foods Ltd~ || Competitor Profiles—Kabansora Millers Ltd~ | Conclusions~ || Competitive Markets Using Inefficient Mills~ || Increasing B2B Market Demand for Wheat Flour~ | Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action~ || Growth Opportunity 1—Business Diversification~ || Growth Opportunity 2—Achieving Economies of Scale~ || Growth Opportunity 3—Growing Importance of the B2B Market Segment for Wheat Flour~ || Growth Opportunity 4—Increasing Brand Awareness~ || Growth Opportunity 5—Local Sourcing Strategy is Required~ || Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth~ || Legal Disclaimer~ | The Frost & Sullivan Story~
List of Charts and Figures 1. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Volumes , Kenya, 2015 and 2020~ 2. Forecasted GDP CAGRs, Africa, 2015–2020~ 3. Gross Domestic Product by Country or Region, EAC and Africa, 2010–2020~ 4. PESTLE Analysis Overview, Kenya and EAC, 2015~ 5. Country Governance Indicators*, East African Community, 2012–2014~ 6. Value of the Agricultural Sector, East African Community, 2010, 2014, and 2015~ 7. Economic Indicators, East African Community, 2014 and 2015~ 8. Social Indicators, East African Community, 2014 and 2015~ 9. Grain Consumption, Kenya, 2008–2013~ 10. Population Statistics, Kenya, 2009~ 11. Maize Imports—EAC Standards, Kenya, 2015~ 12. Wheat Flour Market: Fortification Nutrients, Kenya, 2015~ 13. Maize Flour Market: Fortification Nutrients, Kenya, 2015~ 14. Legal Environment—Selection of Taxes and Rates Charged, Kenya, 2015~ 15. Crop Production, Kenya, 2014~ 16. Crop Production, Uganda, 2013 & 2014~ 17. Crop Production, Tanzania, 2013 & 2014~ 18. Crop Production, Rwanda, 2013 & 2014~ 19. Crop Production, Burundi, 2013 & 2014~ 20. Crop Calendar Based on Rainfall, Kenya, 2015~ 21. Logistics Performance Index Ratings, Kenya, 2012, 2014, 2016~ 22. Maize and Wheat Trade—Import and Export Data (MT), Tanzania and Kenya, 2011–2015~ 23. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Volumes (Metric Tonnes), Kenya, 2015 and 2020~ 24. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Flour Prices, Kenya, 2015~ 25. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Per Capita, Kenya, 2015 and 2020~ 26. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2B Demand Generation Factors, Kenya, 2015~ 27. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2C Demand Generation Factors, Kenya, 2015~ 28. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Barriers to Entry and Mitigation, Kenya, 2015~ 29. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Packaged Maize Flour, Kenya, 2015~ 30. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Drivers, Kenya, 2016–2020~ 31. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Restraints, Kenya, 2016–2020~ 32. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015~ 33. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015~ 34. Posho Maize Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015~ 35. Posho Maize Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015~ 36. Wheat Flour Market: Drivers, Kenya, 2016–2020~ 37. Wheat Flour Market: Restraints, Kenya, 2016–2020~ 38. Wheat Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011–2015~ 39. Wheat Flour Market: Value Chain and Distribution, Kenya, 2015~ 40. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Competitive Overview, Kenya, 2015~ 41. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Production Capacities, Kenya, 2015~| 1. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Retail Revenue, Kenya, 2015 and 2020~ 2. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015~ 3. Wheat Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015 ~ 4. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: B2B and B2C Categorisation, Kenya, 2015~ 5. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: LSM Categorisation, Kenya, 2015~ 6. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Retail Revenue, Kenya, 2015 and 2020~ 7. Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Key Trends Influencing Flows, Kenya, 2015–2020~ 8. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015~ 9. Commercial Maize Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020~ 10. Posho Maize Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020~ 11. Wheat Flour Market: Retail Distribution by Consumption Channel, Kenya, 2015~ 12. Wheat Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013–2020~ 13. Maize Flour Market: Market Shares by Capacity, Kenya, 2015~ 14. Wheat Flour Market: Market Shares by Capacity, Kenya, 2015~
Author Carolyn Krynauw
Industries Agriculture and Nutrition
WIP Number MC6F-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
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