North American Technology Benchmarking for OE Compliance for Fuel Economy, Growth Opportunity

North American Technology Benchmarking for OE Compliance for Fuel Economy, Growth Opportunity

Regulations Must Stabilize to Allow Effective Technology Strategies among OEMs for Improved Fuel Economy and Emissions

RELEASE DATE
24-Dec-2020
REGION
North America
Research Code: K587-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02104-NA-MT_25113
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Description

The predominant driver of change in the automotive powertrain industry, and the need of the hour, is emissions reduction. Despite the social interest in powertrain electrification, the internal combustion engine (ICE) will remain the leading powertrain for at least 2 decades. Nonetheless, this primary propulsion unit offers scope for improvement, making it essential that technologies are evaluated and applied to boost fuel economy and emissions reduction, especially in North America, one of the world’s largest markets, where engine displacement and CO2 emissions remain high.

While the Obama-era EPA norms were intended to increase fuel economy mpg and reduce emissions, increasing adoption of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs), which have a large footprint and thus lower mpg and higher emission levels, has proven counter-productive. Moreover, with the Trump Administration’s rollback of Obama-era fuel economy and emissions regulations, the more lenient Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) rules have placed the North American automotive industry is in a state of flux from a fuel economy and emissions perspective.

Where the previous targets were certainly tough and had original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) requesting a reduction, the near freezing of regulations has created a massive difference between the SAFE and California Air Resources Board (CARB) expectations, essentially asking OEMs to meet 2 different targets in the United States.

Despite the instability in regulations slowing technology adoption and the need for electrification, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), the role of conventional IC engine technologies is still pivotal for improving overall fuel economy in the North American automotive market.

Given these circumstances, this study explores technologies that do not offer major electrification but are used in conjunction with conventional IC engines, their impact on overall fuel economy/emissions, and their associated costs. Additionally, with each OEM having its own technology profile, this study identifies the overall market penetration of these technologies based on OEM preferences. The study period is 2018 to 2030.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the regulations and market dynamics that demand an improvement in overall fuel economy?
  • What different technologies are available?
  • What is the cost/benefit ratio of these technologies?
  • What preferences do OEMs have in adopting these technologies, and what is their outlook for the future?
  • How will technologies evolve in the next decade among different OEMs?

Author: Bharath Kumar Srinivasan

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.
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Table of Contents

Executive Summary—Key Strategies Toward FE Norms

Executive Summary—Key Powertrain Technologies

Global CO2 Emissions Legislation

Actual Fleet Average MPG vs Weight by OEM

Fleet-wide Delta-to-target MPG

Fuel Economy Improvement—Focus Areas

Technology Impact on Fuel Economy Improvement

Technology Penetration Overview

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Key Questions this Study will Answer

Research Methodology

Key Participant Groups and Associated Brands Compared in this Study

Research Background

CO2 Emissions Legislation

Average MPG Target vs Year

Average MPG Target vs Year, by Footprint Area

SAFE Vehicles

Differing EPA and CARB Targets

Actual Fleet Average MPG vs Weight by OEM

Fleet-wide Delta-to-target MPG

Fleet-wide ICE MPG Improvement Projection

Technology Penetration Overview

OEM Powertrain Positioning

Technology Roadmap—Powertrain Development Trends

Fuel Economy Improvement—Focus Areas

Technology Impact on Fuel Economy Improvement

Engine Downsizing—VVT/VVL, GDI, Boosting

Electric Boosting—e-Compressor and e-Turbo

Atkinson/Miller Cycle

Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR)

Water Injection (WI) Systems

Cylinder Deactivation (CD)

Variable Compression Ratio (VCR)

Friction Reduction—Surface Coatings and Lubricants

Mild Hybrid (mHEV) Systems—48V

Electric/Variable Fead

Transmissions

Exhaust Energy Recovery Systems

Credits for Other Technologies in the United States

Fuel Economy Improvement vs Cost

BMW Group

BMW Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

BMW Group—Technology Adoption Indices

BMW Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

BMW Group—FE Improvement Projection

Daimler Group

Daimler Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Daimler Group—Technology Adoption Indices

Daimler Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Daimler Group—FE Improvement Projection

FCA Group

FCA Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

FCA Group—Technology Adoption Indices

FCA Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

FCA Group—FE Improvement Projection

Ford Group

Ford Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Ford Group—Technology Adoption Indices

Ford Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Ford Group—FE Improvement Projection

GM Group

GM Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

GM Group—Technology Adoption Indices

GM Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

GM Group—FE Improvement Projection

Honda Group

Honda Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Honda Group—Technology Adoption Indices

Honda Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Honda Group—FE Improvement Projection

Hyundai Group

Hyundai Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Hyundai Group—Technology Adoption Indices

Hyundai Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Hyundai Group—FE Improvement Projection

Mazda

Mazda—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Mazda—Technology Adoption Indices

Mazda—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Mazda—FE Improvement Projection

Nissan

Nissan—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Nissan—Technology Adoption Indices

Nissan—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Nissan—FE Improvement Projection

Subaru

Subaru—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Subaru—Technology Adoption Indices

Subaru—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Subaru—FE Improvement Projection

Toyota Group

Toyota Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Toyota Group—Technology Adoption Indices

Toyota Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Toyota Group—FE Improvement Projection

Volkswagen Group

Volkswagen Group—Powertrain Distribution by Model

Volkswagen Group—Technology Adoption Indices

Volkswagen Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts

Volkswagen Group—FE Improvement Projection

Growth Opportunity—Electrification of Line-up Likely Game-changer for Compliance

Strategic Imperatives

Conclusions and Outlook

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

The predominant driver of change in the automotive powertrain industry, and the need of the hour, is emissions reduction. Despite the social interest in powertrain electrification, the internal combustion engine (ICE) will remain the leading powertrain for at least 2 decades. Nonetheless, this primary propulsion unit offers scope for improvement, making it essential that technologies are evaluated and applied to boost fuel economy and emissions reduction, especially in North America, one of the worlds largest markets, where engine displacement and CO2 emissions remain high. While the Obama-era EPA norms were intended to increase fuel economy mpg and reduce emissions, increasing adoption of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs), which have a large footprint and thus lower mpg and higher emission levels, has proven counter-productive. Moreover, with the Trump Administrations rollback of Obama-era fuel economy and emissions regulations, the more lenient Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) rules have placed the North American automotive industry is in a state of flux from a fuel economy and emissions perspective. Where the previous targets were certainly tough and had original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) requesting a reduction, the near freezing of regulations has created a massive difference between the SAFE and California Air Resources Board (CARB) expectations, essentially asking OEMs to meet 2 different targets in the United States. Despite the instability in regulations slowing technology adoption and the need for electrification, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), the role of conventional IC engine technologies is still pivotal for improving overall fuel economy in the North American automotive market. Given these circumstances, this study explores technologies that do not offer major electrification but are used in conjunction with conventional IC engines, their impact on overall fuel economy/emissions, and their associated costs. Additionally, with each OEM having its own technology profile, this study identifies the overall market penetration of these technologies based on OEM preferences. The study period is 2018 to 2030.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the regulations and market dynamics that demand an improvement in overall fuel economy?
  • What different technologies are available?
  • What is the cost/benefit ratio of these technologies?
  • What preferences do OEMs have in adopting these technologies, and what is their outlook for the future?
  • How will technologies evolve in the next decade among different OEMs?

Author: Bharath Kumar Srinivasan

More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Bharath Srinivasan
Industries Automotive
WIP Number K587-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9813-A6,9882-A6