US Economy and Policy, Forecast to 2022

US Economy and Policy, Forecast to 2022

A Potential Second Term for Trump Could See the Introduction of a Point-based System for Green Cards and a Favored Nation Drug Pricing

RELEASE DATE
12-Sep-2019
REGION
North America
Research Code: 9AE6-00-07-00-00
SKU: CI00643-NA-DE_23564

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Description

The US is witnessing some major trade policy shifts that are having a significant impact on the US and the global economy. The results of the upcoming 2020 Presidential elections and policies thereafter also stand to significantly influence the growth trajectory of the US economy. In the light of these anticipated events, research on this topic has been designed to better prepare decision makers for multiple scenarios that could unfold in the coming years.

Trade wars are having a detrimental impact on the world economy, with prolonged trade wars viewed as one of the biggest risks to world economic growth. This research analyses multiple trade war scenarios that can play out in the coming months and assesses the impact of trade wars on the US GDP growth. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is another major trade policy shift that has emerged in the last two years. It remains to see if the USMCA will be ratified by the US Congress, with potential ratification to especially benefit the US automotive industry. A trade deal with the UK is expected to come into force after a transition period (or after a no-deal Brexit takes place). The research assesses the features of a potential US-UK trade deal.

With US presidential elections scheduled for 2020, candidates are now highlighting some of their key policy proposals. It remains to be seen whether Trump will remain in power for another term, or whether the US will see a new President coming to power. A potential term two for Trump could see new policy changes such as a point-based system for green cards or favored nation drug pricing. If a Democratic candidate were to be elected to office, the US could see the reversal of 2017 tax cuts, with the possible imposition of higher taxes. As for ongoing trade wars, there is broad support for a tougher stance against China; the strategy of punitive tariffs has, however, been criticized for the damage it has wreaked on the US economy.

This research assesses the short-term outlook for the US dollar, and examines the scenarios of dollar devaluation, depreciation, and appreciation. Potential devaluation by the US will be accompanied by the risk of global currency wars.

American spending patterns and the outlook for the US labor market are the other key topics analyzed as part of this research.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the policy expectations from the key 2020 presidential candidates?
  • What is the policy stance of candidates on key issues, such as trade wars and tax cuts?
  • What is the outlook for US GDP growth?
  • What is the scenario-based outlook for trade wars?
  • How will potential 25% US tariffs affect the automotive industry?
  • What impact will the USMCA trade deal have on US industries?
  • What would a potential US-UK trade deal look like?
  • Is the US dollar expected to appreciate, depreciate, or be devalued?
  • How are American consumer spending patterns expected to evolve?
  • What is the US labor market outlook?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

Table of Contents

US Economy and Policy Outlook—Research Overview

Summary of Key Findings and Growth Opportunities

New Policy Expectations for Key Presidential Candidates

Scenario-Based Outlook for Trade

Economic Outlook—Currency, Spending, and Unemployment

Research Scope

Glossary

Abbreviations and Acronyms

2020 Presidential Election Process and Timeline

Trump Potential Term II—New Policy Expectations

Trump Potential Term II—New Policy Expectations (continued)

Policy Focus of Key Democratic Presidential Candidates

Policy Focus of Key Democratic Presidential Candidates (continued)

Presidential Candidates on Key Issues—Border Wall and Trade Wars

Presidential Candidates on Key Issues—Old vs. New NAFTA

Presidential Candidates on Key Issues—Wages and Medicare

Presidential Candidates on Key Issues—Repeal of Trump Tax Cuts

Trade Wars—Scenario Outlook

Trade Wars—Section 232 Automotive Tariffs

USMCA Trade Deal—Replacement to NAFTA

USMCA Trade Deal—Scenario Outlook

USMCA Trade Deal—NAFTA vs. USMCA

USMCA Trade Deal—Industry Impact

Brexit and the US—Potential Features of a US-UK Trade Deal

Dollar Outlook—From Trade Wars to Currency Wars?

Category-wise Spending Patterns

Generation-wise Spending Patterns

Fastest Growing US Occupations

Unemployment Outlook

Growth Opportunities

Growth Opportunities (continued)

Key Conclusions

Legal Disclaimer

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

The Frost & Sullivan Story

Value Proposition—Future of Your Company & Career

Global Perspective

Industry Convergence

360º Research Perspective

Implementation Excellence

Our Blue Ocean Strategy

Related Research
The US is witnessing some major trade policy shifts that are having a significant impact on the US and the global economy. The results of the upcoming 2020 Presidential elections and policies thereafter also stand to significantly influence the growth trajectory of the US economy. In the light of these anticipated events, research on this topic has been designed to better prepare decision makers for multiple scenarios that could unfold in the coming years. Trade wars are having a detrimental impact on the world economy, with prolonged trade wars viewed as one of the biggest risks to world economic growth. This research analyses multiple trade war scenarios that can play out in the coming months and assesses the impact of trade wars on the US GDP growth. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is another major trade policy shift that has emerged in the last two years. It remains to see if the USMCA will be ratified by the US Congress, with potential ratification to especially benefit the US automotive industry. A trade deal with the UK is expected to come into force after a transition period (or after a no-deal Brexit takes place). The research assesses the features of a potential US-UK trade deal. With US presidential elections scheduled for 2020, candidates are now highlighting some of their key policy proposals. It remains to be seen whether Trump will remain in power for another term, or whether the US will see a new President coming to power. A potential term two for Trump could see new policy changes such as a point-based system for green cards or favored nation drug pricing. If a Democratic candidate were to be elected to office, the US could see the reversal of 2017 tax cuts, with the possible imposition of higher taxes. As for ongoing trade wars, there is broad support for a tougher stance against China; the strategy of punitive tariffs has, however, been criticized for the damage it has wreaked on the US economy. This research assesses the short-term outlook for the US dollar, and examines the scenarios of dollar devaluation, depreciation, and appreciation. Potential devaluation by the US will be accompanied by the risk of global currency wars. American spending patterns and the outlook for the US labor market are the other key topics analyzed as part of this research.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the policy expectations from the key 2020 presidential candidates?
  • What is the policy stance of candidates on key issues, such as trade wars and tax cuts?
  • What is the outlook for US GDP growth?
  • What is the scenario-based outlook for trade wars?
  • How will potential 25% US tariffs affect the automotive industry?
  • What impact will the USMCA trade deal have on US industries?
  • What would a potential US-UK trade deal look like?
  • Is the US dollar expected to appreciate, depreciate, or be devalued?
  • How are American consumer spending patterns expected to evolve?
  • What is the US labor market outlook?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Neha Anna Thomas
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number 9AE6-00-07-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9A08,9A6B