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A Strategic Analysis of the Bus Market, Indonesia, 2024 2035
Indonesia s Bus Sector Drives Transformational Growth through Bus Fleet Electrification to Reduce Emissions and Improve Sustainable Urban Transport and Energy Efficiency
09-Oct-2024
Global
Market Research
Indonesia emerges as a significant player in the global bus market due to its expanding population and increasing reliance on public transportation. The number of buses in operation rises every year, with leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Fuso, Hino, Isuzu, and Scania dominating sales. The Indonesian bus market primarily operates on a chassis basis, where bus chassis are either imported as completely built units or assembled as completely knocked down kits, while local bodybuilding companies (Tentrem, Adiputro, Trisakti, Laksana) fabricate the bus bodies. This Frost & Sullivan analysis covers the market dynamics and the role of these key manufacturers in Indonesia's bus industry.
Frost & Sullivan estimates that the market will grow at a 1.44% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), with a notable shift toward battery electric buses (BEBs) driven by government initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Indonesian Ministry of Transportation has set ambitious targets, aiming for 90% of urban mass public transport to be electrified by 2030 and achieving 100% electrification by 2040. Furthermore, PT TransJakarta, Jakarta's public fleet operator, plans to replace its entire fleet of internal combustion engine buses with 10,000 BEBs by 2030. To facilitate this transition, the government actively promotes local manufacturing. Companies such as PT INKA and PT MAB lead the way, achieving 75% and 35% localization in their production processes, respectively. This analysis covers these electrification targets and efforts to promote local manufacturing.
In addition to electrification, there is a growing emphasis on enhancing safety for drivers and passengers, leading to an expected increase in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) adoption. The shift toward sustainable electric mobility and improved safety features positions Indonesia's bus market for a transformative future. The government's proactive approach, combined with the rising demand for efficient public transportation, establishes Indonesia as a key player in the global bus industry. This analysis covers the innovative solutions that address the country's transportation needs while prioritizing environmental sustainability and passenger safety.
Author: Gnanaprakash Shanmugam
Research Scope
| Base Year | 2023 |
| Study Period | 2023–2035 |
| Forecast Period | 2024–2035 |
| Market/Segment/Program Area Small Bus | 5T GVW to 7T GVW |
| Medium Bus | More than 7T GVW to 10T GVW |
| Large Bus | More than 15T GVW |
Note: GVW = Gross vehicle weight
T = metric tonnes
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Bus Industry
A Strategic Analysis of the Bus Market, Indonesia, 2024–2035
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Bus Industry
Industry Convergence
WHY
- Collaboration among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Tier I suppliers, and tech companies will help address common emissions, safety, and connectivity challenges.
- Complementary efforts will allow stakeholders to develop innovative solutions faster, cut costs, and mitigate risks.
FROST PERSPECTIVE
Partnerships between automotive and tech companies are already happening and will be more common.
- The confluence of diverse ideas and expertise from auto companies and technology developers will define the coming decade, especially when it comes to bus operational efficiency.
Internal Challenges
WHY
- The bus industry, dominated by legacy companies with old ideas and resistance to change, has attracted interest from tech-savvy start-ups in recent years.
- These young companies are rewriting the rules of the game through high-level technology and artificial intelligence (AI).
FROST PERSPECTIVE
- The influx of innovative start-ups is challenging traditional players to adapt or risk obsolescence.
- The integration of advanced technologies by these new entrants is likely to accelerate the transformation of the bus industry.
Transformative Megatrends
WHY
- Connected and shared technologies in the form of telematics and digital freight brokerage are in a nascent stage, albeit already in deployment.
- In the bus industry, the keywords are connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE). Each of these aspects will contribute to a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable environment.
FROST PERSPECTIVE
- In the next 2 to 5 years, many new participants will enter the market, especially in electrification.
- Numerous technology companies are interested in the bus industry and are working on improving connectivity, booking systems, and self-driving technology.
- Autonomous mobility, green transportation, and new mobility models will shape our future world.
- Electric buses will proliferate in the coming decade.
- Depending on the level, autonomous driving is still 5 to 10 years away.
Revenue forecast for Bus Market
Bus Market: Revenue Forecast, Indonesia, 2023–2035
CAGR, 2023–2035 = 4.23%
Revenue from bus sales in Indonesia will grow at a 4.23% CAGR between 2023 and 2035.
Research Scope
Market Segmentation
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Bus Industry
Indonesia’s Economic Landscape
Growth Metrics
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Bus Business Models
Bus Production and Supply Chain
Bus Segment Classification by Route
Bus Segmentation by GVW and Application
Bus Ecosystem
Daimler Truck: Strategy and Development Road Map
Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus: Strategy and Development Road Map
Hino Motors: Strategy and Development Road Map
Isuzu Motors: Strategy and Development Road Map
Key Bodybuilders Portfolio and OEM Partnership
TransJakarta: Indonesia’s Largest BRT Service Provider
Damri: A Prominent Intercity/Interprovince Service Provider
Forecast Considerations
Unit Sales Forecast by Bus Segment
Revenue forecast for Bus Market
Bus OEM Competitor Analysis
Bus Market: GVW and Engine Power
Bus Market: Gradeability and Engine Power
Bus Market: OEM Product Variant and Bus Length
Bus Market: Average Price Comparison
Bus Electrification Outlook
Bus OEM BEB Portfolio
BEB Model Specification
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis
Total Electricity Demand from BEBs
Electricity Generation by Source
CO Emissions for BEB VIO
ADAS in Buses Overview
ADAS Favorability by Application
Growth Opportunity 1: Increasing ADAS Adoption
Growth Opportunity 1: Increasing ADAS Adoption (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2: Zero-emission Vehicle Adoption
Growth Opportunity 2: Zero-emission Vehicle Adoption (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3: Improve Electric Fleet Total Cost of Ownership
Growth Opportunity 3: Improve Electric Fleet Total Cost of Ownership (continued)
Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
Next Steps
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures- GDP and Share of GDP, Asia-Pacific and Indonesia, 2000–2023
- GNI per Capita, Indonesia, 2000–2022
- Bus Market: Growth Metrics, Indonesia, 2023
- Bus Market: Growth Drivers, Indonesia, 2024–2035
- Bus Market: Growth Restraints, Indonesia, 2024–2035
- Bus Market: Business Models, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: CBU and CKD Shipment from Major Countries, Indonesia, 2023
- Bus Market: Bus Segmentation by Route, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: Bus Segmentation by GVW and Application, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: Bus Ecosystem and Major Partners, Indonesia, 2024
- Daimler Production Volume, Indonesia, 2021–2023
- Mitsubishi Production Volume, Indonesia, 2021–2023
- Hino Motors Production Volume, Indonesia, 2021–2023
- Isuzu Motors Production Volume, Indonesia, 2021–2023
- Bus Market: Key Bodybuilders Product Portfolio, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: TransJakarta’s Fleet Composition and Electrification Plan, Indonesia 2024
- Bus Market: Damri’s Fleet Composition and Electrification Plan, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: Key Forecast Criteria, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: Unit Sales Forecast by Bus Segment, Indonesia, 2023–2035
- Bus Market: Revenue Forecast, Indonesia, 2023–2035
- Market Share, Indonesia, 2022–2023
- Volume Growth and Market Share Change, Indonesia, 2022–2023
- Bus Market: GVW and Engine Power, Indonesia, 2023
- Bus Market: Gradeability and Engine Power, Indonesia, 2023
- Bus Market: OEM Product Variant and Bus Length, Indonesia, 2023
- Bus Market: OEM Average Price Positioning Comparison, Indonesia, 2023
- Indonesia’s government initiatives and fleet electrification targets for 2024 to 2030
- Bus Market: OEM BEB Product Portfolio, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: Electric Bus Specifications, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: Forecast Scenario Analysis (60%, 45% and 35% EV penetration), Indonesia, 2023–2030
- Bus Market: Electricity Demand from BEB VIO, Indonesia, 2023–2030
- Bus Market: Total Electricity Generation by Source (TWh), Indonesia, 2001–2022
- Bus Market: Total CO2 Emissions for Three EV Penetration Scenarios, Indonesia, 2023–2030
- Bus Market: ADAS Overview, Indonesia, 2024
- Bus Market: ADAS Favourability by Application, Indonesia, 2024
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| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| Author | Gnanaprakash Shanmugam |
| Industries | Automotive |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Keyword 1 | Indonesian Bus Market |
| Keyword 2 | Bus Fleet Growth |
| Keyword 3 | Urban Mobility Indonesia |
| List of Charts and Figures | GDP and Share of GDP, Asia-Pacific and Indonesia, 2000–2023~ GNI per Capita, Indonesia, 2000–2022~ Bus Market: Growth Metrics, Indonesia, 2023~ Bus Market: Growth Drivers, Indonesia, 2024–2035~ Bus Market: Growth Restraints, Indonesia, 2024–2035~ Bus Market: Business Models, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: CBU and CKD Shipment from Major Countries, Indonesia, 2023~ Bus Market: Bus Segmentation by Route, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: Bus Segmentation by GVW and Application, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: Bus Ecosystem and Major Partners, Indonesia, 2024~ Daimler Production Volume, Indonesia, 2021–2023~ Mitsubishi Production Volume, Indonesia, 2021–2023~ Hino Motors Production Volume, Indonesia, 2021–2023~ Isuzu Motors Production Volume, Indonesia, 2021–2023~ Bus Market: Key Bodybuilders Product Portfolio, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: TransJakarta’s Fleet Composition and Electrification Plan, Indonesia 2024~ Bus Market: Damri’s Fleet Composition and Electrification Plan, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: Key Forecast Criteria, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: Unit Sales Forecast by Bus Segment, Indonesia, 2023–2035~ Bus Market: Revenue Forecast, Indonesia, 2023–2035~ Market Share, Indonesia, 2022–2023~ Volume Growth and Market Share Change, Indonesia, 2022–2023~ Bus Market: GVW and Engine Power, Indonesia, 2023~ Bus Market: Gradeability and Engine Power, Indonesia, 2023~ Bus Market: OEM Product Variant and Bus Length, Indonesia, 2023~ Bus Market: OEM Average Price Positioning Comparison, Indonesia, 2023~ Indonesia’s government initiatives and fleet electrification targets for 2024 to 2030~ Bus Market: OEM BEB Product Portfolio, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: Electric Bus Specifications, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: Forecast Scenario Analysis (60%, 45% and 35% EV penetration), Indonesia, 2023–2030~ Bus Market: Electricity Demand from BEB VIO, Indonesia, 2023–2030~ Bus Market: Total Electricity Generation by Source (TWh), Indonesia, 2001–2022~ Bus Market: Total CO2 Emissions for Three EV Penetration Scenarios, Indonesia, 2023–2030~ Bus Market: ADAS Overview, Indonesia, 2024~ Bus Market: ADAS Favourability by Application, Indonesia, 2024~ |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | PFNH-01-00-00-00 |