African Commercial Vehicles Market, Forecast to 2025

The African commercial vehicles (CV) market, despite the slowdown due to low oil and commodity prices, is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1%, largely driven by increasing infrastructural developments and rising urbanisation. South Africa is the largest contributor to the CV market in Africa, with 53% share. However, until 2025, Nigeria, Kenya, and Morocco are expected to be the fastest-growing markets and the only ones to increase their share in the overall CV market. Apart from Nigeria, where the CV market is in turmoil, Kenya, Morocco, and Tanzania are expected to be the fastest-growing CV markets in Africa until 2025.

The light-duty (LD) trucks segment is dominated by Japanese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Isuzu, Toyota, and Mitsubishi, making up 67.8% of the market. The medium- and heavy-duty (M&HD) trucks segment, on the other hand, is fragmented, with a more balanced split among key OEMs. In the bus segment, however, European participants are more prominent, with nearly 50% market share. Asian OEMs, especially those from China and India, are expected to further proliferate at a rapid pace and spearhead the supply of value trucks in the region.
Latest technologies such as alternative powertrain and truck telematics penetration are negligible. Apart from a few compressed natural gas (CNG) buses in certain North African markets and the adoption of some basic telematics services in South Africa, there is no presence of these technologies in the region.

New vehicles in Africa are predominantly imported as knocked-down kits and assembled in local facilities, whereas used vehicles are imported as fully built units. The African new trucks market was predominantly dominated by premium brands from North America and Europe. White spaces in the lower price range and market potential enticed Asian manufacturers into setting up shop in the region. Asian manufacturers have gained traction in recent years, due to optimum truck specifications that comply with regional demands. These brands are positioned as affordable and value-for-money alternatives to their premium counterparts. The imported used trucks market in the Sub-Saharan region is dominant across all truck segments, especially in countries such as Ghana and Nigeria. The North African region has very little used trucks imports in the LD trucks segment, due to strict regulations, whereas used trucks imports are prevalent in the M&HD trucks segment. Most of the imports from Europe (constituting European brands) are in the HD tractors segment. In the LD and MD trucks segments, however, used trucks imports mainly constitute Chinese and Japanese brands.

In North Africa, there is growing emphasis on urban transport, along with government incentives to produce vehicles locally. This is expected to have the biggest impact on the CV market in the region. Top trends in the Sub-Saharan region include accelerated infrastructural development, rapid urbanization, and increasing proliferation of Asian OEMs. Major economies of Africa are expected to recover from the current slump once oil and commodity prices start climbing up, after which they are expected to be back on the path of accelerated growth.