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The Emerging Threat Profiles, Defence Cooperation, Spending and Industry Evolution Shape the European Security Strategies
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Europe’s economic recovery has been slow, countries are trying to reduce their national debt by reducing government spending , and this, in turn, has the potential to influence defence allocation .The economic situation of Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland continues to be worrying and future bailouts to support these countries might put additional pressure on defence spending. Even against this background, emerging conventional and unconventional security threats and the pressure from NATO and the US to meet the spending commitments might be sufficient to see a considerable defence spending growth in the future. The exit of the UK might result in higher defence spending to conduct operations more independently.The increased tempo of air policing measures carried out by European air forces and the need to maintain high availability of the combat aircraft fleet might result in the military aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul business grow in the coming years. With newer and more advanced threats appearing from rival nations such as Russia and China, more funds might be invested in larger European nations into newer capabilities. Central European countries will build their air forces around the purchase/lease of aircraft. Larger countries and Central European countries will look to bolster their air defence equipment, both tactical and missile defence systems, to counter Russian missile deployments.The ground deployments by NATO in the Eastern Flank of Europe would require high-readiness armour and mechanised and artillery forces. Larger countries might invest in a small number of new tanks and artillery. While inducting new infantry fighting vehicles and wheeled personnel carriers, vehicles in storage might be put back into service along with upgrades to existing vehicles, which might create opportunities for repair and upgrades. Central European countries primarily aim at upgrading existing vehicles and adding new wheeled armoured vehicles and procuring used self-propelled howitzers.The cyber and perception warfare might require upgrading cyber defence tools, cyber intelligence gathering, infrastructure, and training. The use of chemical weapons in conflicts in Syria and by ISIL might convince European nations to upgrade their CBRN capabilities; this might open up business avenues in NBC suites, new vehicles, or upgrades to existing vehicles with enhanced NBC reconnaissance capabilities. Larger European nations invest in configurable multi-mission ships for anti-air, anti-submarine , anti-surface warfare. Maritime patrol might be improved through upgrades to the P-3 and Atlantique fleets and procurement of smaller aircraft. The refugee crisis has highlighted the need for enhanced search and rescue and patrol capabilities. Smaller European nations might invest in patrol vessels to replace older vessels.
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