Analysis of the Chinese Mobility Market, Forecast to 2025

China to Solidify Its Leadership in eLCV Sales with Increasing Subsidies for FCVs and New Model Launches by 2025


RELEASE DATE
03-Mar-2020
REGION
Asia Pacific
DELIVERABLE TYPE
Market Research

RESEARCH CODE
PA30-01-00-00-00
SKU
FN00030-AP-MR_24051
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Analysis of the Chinese Mobility Market, Forecast to 2025
Published on: 03-Mar-2020 | SKU: FN00030-AP-MR_24051

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The global automotive industry is currently facing several cyclical and structural challenges, and China is no exception to these changes, as its automotive market has been experiencing prolonged negative growth since 2018.

China has been the world's largest automobile market and one of the most reliable engines of global growth for the past decade. In recent years, China’s growing appetite for vehicles has accounted for the majority all growth in global sales. However, the economic slowdown, weakening consumer sentiment arising from the trade war with the United States, and the lack of tax incentives to purchase new cars has led the country’s automobile industry facing its first contraction since the 1990s. Additionally, the popularity of shared mobility concepts, such as car sharing, ride sharing, ride hailing, and bike sharing are restraining vehicle purchase demand, as shared mobility solutions offer easy mobility—especially first and last mile connectivity—at an affordable price. Growth in China’s peer-to-peer market has been mainly driven by dominant market participants, such as AT Zuche, which has expanded its P2P services to approximately 25 cities with over 200,000 vehicles registered on its platform.

China has been at the forefront of the electric vehicle (EV) space, accounting for more than half of the global EV population. Battery-operated cars are projected to account for 11% of total light vehicle sales by 2025, according to Frost & Sullivan. Electric powertrain adoption and the eTruck parc are also expected to be high in China with its recent technology developments and government mandates. The country intends to become a technology leader in the EV market.

The number of original equipment manufacturers of electric light commercial vehicles (eLCVs) is expected to increase from 14 in 2017 to 23 in 2025. Aggressive electrification policies supported by incentives by the Chinese government will lead to a 21% penetration of the eLCV market by 2025 with fully-electric vehicles dominating the market.

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) penetration is expected to reach 17.9% in the light-duty (LD) segment, 25.4% in the medium-duty (MD) segment, and 5.5% in the heavy-duty (HD) segment in 2025 in China. Companies such as FAW, CNHTC, Dongfeng, Shaanxi, and CAMC will enter the BEV market by 2020. The Chinese government plans to focus on Fuel-cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) by keeping subsidies unchanged until 2020; this will increase penetration in the MD segment to 3.0%.

China, the world’s biggest automobile market by sales, is considering the integration of software and Big Data information to provide smart mobility solutions. Leveraging the application of Beidou Navigation Satellite System, connected services will be helpful in enhancing truck management and developing autonomous trucks in the commercial truck market in the country.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the key factors impacting the light vehicle market in China?
  • What are the emerging trends in the mobility market in China?
  • What is the forecasted size of the light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty commercial trucks markets until 2025?
  • What are the key factors driving alternate powertrain market penetration in China, including regulations, government incentives, natural-gas reserves, and electric-charging infrastructure?
  • How will the Chinese road-freight brokerage market evolve by 2025? What will be the share of key solution types and market revenue opportunities?
  • What is the current scenario and the future outlook of electric vehicles (xEVs) and natural-gas trucks in China?

Analyst: Jasmine Bedi

Light Vehicle Market in China—Key Highlights

Commercial Vehicle Market in China—Key Highlights

Electric LCV (eLCV) Market in China—Key Highlights

Car-Sharing Market Trends—Global

Chinese eLCV Market—Adoption Forecast by Type

Chinese MD and HD Commercial Vehicle Market—Powertrain Split

Snapshot of New Mobility Services Offered in Beijing

Research Scope

Vehicle Segmentation

Market Definitions and Segmentation

Research Aims and Objectives

Key Questions this Study will Answer

Research Background

Research Methodology

Automotive Industry Outlook—LV Sales in China

Segment Sales as a Percent of Total LV Sales

Global LV Sales of Top 15 Chinese OEM Groups

Total xEV Market Scenario Analysis in LVs

LVs Market—Global HEV Outlook 2018

Chinese Hybrid and Electric Light Vehicle Sales Mix

Peer-to-Peer Car Sharing Market Analysis—China

Car-Sharing Market Trends—Global

Key Regional LCV Markets—China

Tailpipe and Greenhouse Gas (GHG)/Fuel Efficiency Regulations in China

Chinese eLCV Market—Key Influencing Trends

Chinese eLCV Market—Adoption Forecast by Type

Chinese eLCV Market—Scenario Analysis of eLCVs

Chinese MD and HD Commercial Vehicle Market—Powertrain Split

Tailpipe Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards in China

MD and HD Trucks—OEM Sales Performance in China

Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast—By Weight Segment

MD and HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance in 2018

Alternative Fuel Powertrain Market Analysis—Global

Electric Truck Market—2025 Outlook of Key Regions

MD and HD Truck Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap

MD and HD Truck Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap (continued)

Global Regulations Outlook—GHG and Tailpipe Emissions

Electric Vehicle Charging Stations in Chinese Provinces

Public EV Charging Infrastructure in Chinese Cities

China Digital Brokerage Solution—$1.0 Billion Market by 2025

China On-Demand Solutions—$22.58 Billion Market Potential

Shanghai—Overview

Shanghai—Smart City Attractiveness

Shanghai Transportation Modes—Market Share

Snapshot of Transportation Modes—Motorization Rates and Fares

Technology Trends and Outlook

Snapshot of New Mobility Services Offered in Shanghai

Beijing—Overview

Beijing—Smart City Attractiveness

Beijing Transportation Modes—Market Share

Snapshot of Transportation Modes—Motorization Rates and Fares

Technology Trends and Outlook

Snapshot of New Mobility Services Offered in Beijing

Growth Opportunity—Chinese Mobility Market Analysis

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

Key Conclusions

The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used (continued)

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

The Frost & Sullivan Story

Value Proposition—Future of Your Company & Career

Global Perspective

Industry Convergence

360º Research Perspective

Implementation Excellence

Our Blue Ocean Strategy


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The global automotive industry is currently facing several cyclical and structural challenges, and China is no exception to these changes, as its automotive market has been experiencing prolonged negative growth since 2018. China has been the world's largest automobile market and one of the most reliable engines of global growth for the past decade. In recent years, China’s growing appetite for vehicles has accounted for the majority all growth in global sales. However, the economic slowdown, weakening consumer sentiment arising from the trade war with the United States, and the lack of tax incentives to purchase new cars has led the country’s automobile industry facing its first contraction since the 1990s. Additionally, the popularity of shared mobility concepts, such as car sharing, ride sharing, ride hailing, and bike sharing are restraining vehicle purchase demand, as shared mobility solutions offer easy mobility—especially first and last mile connectivity—at an affordable price. Growth in China’s peer-to-peer market has been mainly driven by dominant market participants, such as AT Zuche, which has expanded its P2P services to approximately 25 cities with over 200,000 vehicles registered on its platform. China has been at the forefront of the electric vehicle (EV) space, accounting for more than half of the global EV population. Battery-operated cars are projected to account for 11% of total light vehicle sales by 2025, according to Frost & Sullivan. Electric powertrain adoption and the eTruck parc are also expected to be high in China with its recent technology developments and government mandates. The country intends to become a technology leader in the EV market. The number of original equipment manufacturers of electric light commercial vehicles (eLCVs) is expected to increase from 14 in 2017 to 23 in 2025. Aggressive electrification policies supported by incentives by the Chinese government will lead to a 21% penetration of the eLCV market by 2025 with fully-electric vehicles dominating the market. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) penetration is expected to reach 17.9% in the light-duty (LD) segment, 25.4% in the medium-duty (MD) segment, and 5.5% in the heavy-duty (HD) segment in 2025 in China. Companies such as FAW, CNHTC, Dongfeng, Shaanxi, and CAMC will enter the BEV market by 2020. The Chinese government plans to focus on Fuel-cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) by keeping subsidies unchanged until 2020; this will increase penetration in the MD segment to 3.0%. China, the world’s biggest automobile market by sales, is considering the integration of software and Big Data information to provide smart mobility solutions. Leveraging the application of Beidou Navigation Satellite System, connected services will be helpful in enhancing truck management and developing autonomous trucks in the commercial truck market in the country.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the key factors impacting the light vehicle market in China?
  • What are the emerging trends in the mobility market in China?
  • What is the forecasted size of the light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty commercial trucks markets until 2025?
  • What are the key factors driving alternate powertrain market penetration in China, including regulations, government incentives, natural-gas reserves, and electric-charging infrastructure?
  • How will the Chinese road-freight brokerage market evolve by 2025? What will be the share of key solution types and market revenue opportunities?
  • What is the current scenario and the future outlook of electric vehicles (xEVs) and natural-gas trucks in China?

Analyst: Jasmine Bedi

More Information
Deliverable Type Market Research
No Index No
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Author Naila Govan-Vassen
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Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9673-A6,9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9882-A6,9AF6-A6

Analysis of the Chinese Mobility Market, Forecast to 2025

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