Analysis of the Chinese Mobility Market, Forecast to 2025

The global automotive industry is currently facing several cyclical and structural challenges, and China is no exception to these changes, as its automotive market has been experiencing prolonged negative growth since 2018.

China has been the world's largest automobile market and one of the most reliable engines of global growth for the past decade. In recent years, China’s growing appetite for vehicles has accounted for the majority all growth in global sales. However, the economic slowdown, weakening consumer sentiment arising from the trade war with the United States, and the lack of tax incentives to purchase new cars has led the country’s automobile industry facing its first contraction since the 1990s. Additionally, the popularity of shared mobility concepts, such as car sharing, ride sharing, ride hailing, and bike sharing are restraining vehicle purchase demand, as shared mobility solutions offer easy mobility—especially first and last mile connectivity—at an affordable price. Growth in China’s peer-to-peer market has been mainly driven by dominant market participants, such as AT Zuche, which has expanded its P2P services to approximately 25 cities with over 200,000 vehicles registered on its platform.

China has been at the forefront of the electric vehicle (EV) space, accounting for more than half of the global EV population. Battery-operated cars are projected to account for 11% of total light vehicle sales by 2025, according to Frost & Sullivan. Electric powertrain adoption and the eTruck parc are also expected to be high in China with its recent technology developments and government mandates. The country intends to become a technology leader in the EV market.

The number of original equipment manufacturers of electric light commercial vehicles (eLCVs) is expected to increase from 14 in 2017 to 23 in 2025. Aggressive electrification policies supported by incentives by the Chinese government will lead to a 21% penetration of the eLCV market by 2025 with fully-electric vehicles dominating the market.

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) penetration is expected to reach 17.9% in the light-duty (LD) segment, 25.4% in the medium-duty (MD) segment, and 5.5% in the heavy-duty (HD) segment in 2025 in China. Companies such as FAW, CNHTC, Dongfeng, Shaanxi, and CAMC will enter the BEV market by 2020. The Chinese government plans to focus on Fuel-cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) by keeping subsidies unchanged until 2020; this will increase penetration in the MD segment to 3.0%.

China, the world’s biggest automobile market by sales, is considering the integration of software and Big Data information to provide smart mobility solutions. Leveraging the application of Beidou Navigation Satellite System, connected services will be helpful in enhancing truck management and developing autonomous trucks in the commercial truck market in the country.