ASEAN Automotive Outlook, 2018

Vehicle Sales to Cross 3.5 Million Units in 2018 as Japanese Carmakers Continue to Lead the Market in Indonesia and Thailand

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Sustained economic growth and infrastructure development should drive ASEAN automotive market growth forecast to 2024. Thailand is expected to register the highest growth while Indonesia will continue to be the largest market.This study presents a detailed overview and analysis of the trends in the automotive markets in ASEAN with particular focus on the significant trends in the three key markets of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. It analyzes the key trends which shaped the market in 2017 and also reflects on the trends that are likely to present themselves in 2018. It also analyzes these future trends and the impact they are likely to have on the key vehicle segments across the three markets.

Research Scope

  • ASEAN Automotive Outlook including Key Market Trends in 2017 and 2018 and Disruptive trends in 2018
  • Malaysia Automotive Outlook including TIV 2013-2017, Segment wise Breakdown in 2017, Key OEMs and Market Share in 2017, Key Market Trends in 2018, Segment wise Breakdown in 2018, Key OEMs and Market Share in 2018, 2017-2024 Unit Shipment Forecasts, and Key Takeaways – Malaysia
  • Indonesia Automotive Outlook including TIV in 2013-2017, Segment wise Breakdown in 2017, Key OEMs and Market Share in 2017, Key Market Trends in 2018, Segment wise Breakdown in 2018, Key OEMs and Market Share in 2018, 2017-2024 Unit Shipment Forecasts, and Key Takeaways – Indonesia
  • Thailand Automotive Outlook TIV in 2013-2017, Segment wise Breakdown in 2017, Key OEMs and Market Share in 2017, Key Market Trends in 2018, Segment wise Breakdown in 2018, Key OEMs and Market Share in 2018, 2017-2024 Unit Shipment Forecasts, and Key Takeaways – Thailand

The base year for the study is 2017, with the forecast period being 2018 to 2024.


Key Issues Addressed

  • What is likely to be the market performance and outlook in ASEAN in 2017 and 2018?
  • What is likely to be the market performance and outlook in the three key automotive markets in the ASEAN in the future?
  • What are the key trends affecting the automotive market ASEAN during 2018?
  • What are the key trends in the ASEAN countries of Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia in 2017 and 2018?
  • Which vehicle segments are preferred and which have a higher growth potential in these markets in 2017 and 2018?
  • Which are the key OEMs in the ASEAN automotive market in 2017 and 2018?
  • What are the key takeaways for the three key markets of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand during the forecast period?

 

 

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2017 Key Highlights
Disruptive Trends for 2018
Predictions for 2018
Top Trends in the ASEAN Automotive Market in 2018
2. Research Scope and Segmentation
Research Scope
Product Segmentation
Product Definitions
3. ASEAN Automotive Outlook
Key Market Trends in ASEAN in 2018
Trend 1—Sustained Economic Growth
Trend 2—Infrastructure Development
Trend 3—Launch of New Models and Facelifts
Trend 4—Growth in Exports
Trend 5—New Automotive Policies
Total ASEAN Market Unit Shipments
4. Indonesia Automotive Outlook
Indonesia—Unit Shipments from 2013 to 2017
Indonesia—Percent Unit Shipment by PV and CV in 2017
Indonesia—Key OEMs and Market Share over 2015–2017
Indonesia—Key Market Trends Anticipated in 2018
Trend 1—New Model Launches and Promotional Campaigns
Trend 2—Monetary Stimulus
Trend 3—Political Year and Asian Games
Trend 4—Pressures due to Fiscal Deficit
Trend 5—Positive Consumer Sentiment
Trend 6—Export Growth
Trend 7—Increasing Energy Price
Trend 8—New Auto Policy
Indonesia—Percent Unit Shipment Forecast by PV and CV Type
Indonesia—Key OEMs and Market Share in 2018
Indonesia—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis
Indonesia—Key Conclusions
5. Malaysia Automotive Outlook
Malaysia—Unit Shipments from 2013 to 2017
Malaysia—Percent Unit Shipment by PV and CV Type in 2017
Malaysia—Key OEMs and Market Share from 2015 to 2017
Malaysia—Key Market Trends in 2018
Trend 1—High Household Debt
Trend 2—Growth in Wages
Trend 3—New Model Launches/Promotional Campaigns
Trend 4—National Automotive Policy Update
Trend 5—Growth of Alternate Mobility Solutions
Trend 6—Stringent Loan Approval
Trend 7—Infrastructure Development
Trend 8—Strengthening Ringgit
Malaysia—Percent Unit Shipment Forecast by PV and CV Type
Malaysia—Key OEMs and Market Share in 2018
Malaysia—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis
Malaysia—Key Conclusions
6. Thailand Automotive Outlook
Thailand—Unit Shipments from 2013 to 2017
Thailand—Percent Unit Shipment by PV and CV in 2017
Thailand—Key OEMs and Market Share from 2015 to 2017
Thailand—Key Market Trends in 2018
Trend 1—Private Sector Revitalization
Trend 2—Infrastructure Development
Trend 3—Launch of New Vehicle Models
Trend 4—Export Resurgence
Trend 5—High Household Debt
Trend 6—Weak/Low Agricultural Prices
Trend 7—Adverse Impact of Natural Calamities
Trend 8—New Excise Tax Calculation
Thailand—Percent Unit Shipment Forecast by PV and CV Type
Thailand—Key OEMs and Market Share in 2018
Thailand—Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis
Thailand—Key Conclusions
7. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
Growth Opportunity 1—Increase in Private Consumption
Growth Opportunity 2—Growth in Infrastructure Investment
Growth Opportunity 3—Export Growth
Growth Opportunity 4—Governments’ Energy-Efficient Programs
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
8. The Last Word
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer
9. Appendix
Table of Acronyms
List of Exhibits
10. Regulatory ForeSightTM—Indonesia: Key Policy Movements over the Next 3–5 Years
Regulatory Foresight—5 Year Horizon
Regulatory Foresight—Carbon Emission Tax
Regulatory Foresight—Low Carbon Emission Program
Regulatory Foresight—B30: Biodiesel & Bioethanol Adoption
Regulatory Foresight—EV Acceleration Program
Government Policies
Frost & Sullivan’s ASEAN Regulatory ForeSightTM
The Regulatory ForeSightTM
11. Regulatory ForeSightTM—Malaysia: Key Policy Movements over the Next 3–5 Years
Regulatory Foresight—3-5 Year Horizon
Regulatory Foresight—Implementation of ESC
Regulatory Foresight—Introduction of eCall
Regulatory Foresight—Introduction of B10 Mandate
Regulatory Foresight—Vehicle End of Life Policy
12. Regulatory ForeSightTM—Thailand: Key Policy Movements over the Next 3–5 Years
Regulatory Foresight—3-5 Year Horizon
Regulatory Development—Change in Free-zone Scheme
Regulatory Development—Emission Standards Implementation
Regulatory Development—EV Policy & Implementation Incentives
13. The Frost & Sullivan Story

Infographic



List of Figures & Charts

1. Automotive Market: OEM Market Share Analysis of PVs and CVs, Indonesia, 2015–2017
2. Automotive Market: OEM Market Share Analysis of PVs and CVs, Indonesia, 2018
3. Automotive Market: OEM Market Share Analysis of PVs and CVs, Malaysia, 2015–2017
4. Automotive Market: OEM Market Share Analysis of PVs and CVs, Malaysia, 2017
5. Automotive Market: OEM Market Share Analysis of PVs and CVs, Thailand, 2015–2017
6. Automotive Market: OEM Market Share Analysis of PVs and CVs, Thailand, 2018
7. Automotive Market: Regulatory Foresight, Indonesia, 2017
8. Automotive Market: Regulatory Foresight, Malaysia, 2017
9. Automotive Market: Regulatory Foresight, Thailand, 2017


1. Automotive Market: Unit Shipment Forecasts, ASEAN, 2017 and 2018
2. Automotive Market: Unit Shipment, Indonesia, 2013–2017
3. Automotive Market: Percent Unit Shipment by PV and CV Types, Indonesia, 2017
4. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for New Model Launches & Promotional Campaigns, Indonesia, 2018
5. Automotive Market: Impact of New Model Launches & Promotional Campaigns on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2018
6. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Monetary Stimulus, Indonesia, 2018
7. Automotive Market: Impact of Monetary Stimulus on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2018
8. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Political Year and Asian Games, Indonesia, 2018
9. Automotive Market: Impact of Political Year and Asian Games on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2018
10. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Pressures due to Fiscal Deficit, Indonesia, 2018
11. Automotive Market: Impact of Pressures due to Fiscal Deficit on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2018
12. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Positive Consumer Sentiment, Indonesia, 2018
13. Automotive Market: Impact of Positive Consumer Sentiment on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2018
14. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Export Growth, Indonesia, 2018
15. Automotive Market: Impact of Export Growth on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2018
16. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Increasing Energy Price, Indonesia, 2018
17. Automotive Market: Impact of Increasing Energy Price on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2018
18. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for New Auto Policy, Indonesia, 2018
19. Automotive Market: Impact of New Auto Policy on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2018
20. Automotive Market: Percent Unit Shipment Forecast by PV and CV Type, Indonesia, 2018
21. Automotive Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis, Indonesia, 2017–2024
22. Automotive Market: Total Industry Volume (TIV), Malaysia, 2013–2017
23. Automotive Market: Percent Unit Shipment by PV and CV Type, Malaysia, 2017
24. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for High Household Debt, Malaysia, 2018
25. Automotive Market: Impact of High Household Debt on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2018
26. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Growth in Wages, Malaysia, 2018
27. Automotive Market: Impact of Growth in Wages on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2018
28. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for New Model Launches/Promotional Campaigns, Malaysia, 2018
29. Automotive Market: Impact of New Model Launches/Promotional Campaigns on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2018
30. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for National Automotive Policy Update, Malaysia, 2018
31. Automotive Market: Impact of National Automotive Policy Update on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2018
32. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Growth of Alternate Mobility Solutions, Malaysia, 2018
33. Automotive Market: Impact of Growth of Alternate Mobility Solutions on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2018
34. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Stringent Loan Approval, Malaysia, 2018
35. Automotive Market: Impact of Stringent Loan Approval on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2018
36. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid of Infrastructure Development, Malaysia, 2018
37. Automotive Market: Impact of Infrastructure Development, Malaysia, 2018
38. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Strengthening Ringgit, Malaysia, 2018
39. Automotive Market: Impact of Strengthening Ringgit on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2018
40. Automotive Market: Percent Unit Shipment Forecast by PV and CV Type, Malaysia, 2018
41. Automotive Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis, Malaysia, 2017–2024
42. Automotive Market: Total Industry Volume (TIV), Thailand, 2013–2017
43. Automotive Market: Percent Unit Shipment by PV and CV Type, Thailand, 2017
44. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Private Sector Revitalization, Thailand, 2018
45. Automotive Market: Impact of Private Sector Revitalization on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2018
46. Automotive Market: Impact of Infrastructure Development, Thailand, 2018
47. Automotive Market: Impact of Infrastructure Development, Thailand, 2018
48. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Launch of New Vehicle Models, Thailand, 2018
49. Automotive Market: Impact of Launch of New Vehicle Models on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2018
50. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Export Resurgence, Thailand, 2018
51. Automotive Market: Impact of Export Resurgence on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2018
52. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for High Household Debt, Thailand, 2018
53. Automotive Market: Impact of High Household Debt on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2018
54. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Weak/Low Agricultural Prices, Thailand, 2018
55. Automotive Market: Impact of Weak/Low Agricultural Prices on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2018
56. Automotive Market: Overall Grid for Adverse Impact of Natural Calamities, Thailand, 2018
57. Automotive Market: Adverse Impact of Natural Calamities on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2018
58. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for New Excise Tax Calculation, Thailand, 2018
59. Automotive Market: Impact of New Excise Tax Calculation on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2018
60. Automotive Market: Percent Unit Shipment Forecast by PV and CV Type, Thailand, 2018
61. Automotive Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis, Thailand, 2017–2024
62. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Carbon Emission Tax, Indonesia, 2017
63. Automotive Market: Impact of Carbon Emission Tax on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2017
64. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Low Carbon Emission Program, Indonesia, 2017
65. Automotive Market: Impact of Low Carbon Emission Program on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2017
66. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for B30—Biodiesel & Bioethanol Adoption, Indonesia, 2017
67. Automotive Market: Impact of B30—Biodiesel & Bioethanol Adoption on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2017
68. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid EV Acceleration Program, Indonesia, 2017
69. Automotive Market: Impact of EV Acceleration Program on Focus Segments, Indonesia, 2017
70. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Implementation of ESC Malaysia, 2017
71. Automotive Market: Impact of Implementation of ESC on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2017
72. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Introduction of eCall, Malaysia, 2017
73. Automotive Market: Impact of Introduction of eCall on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2017
74. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Introduction of B10 Mandate, Malaysia, 2017
75. Automotive Market: Impact of Introduction of B10 Mandate on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2017
76. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Vehicle End of Life Policy, Malaysia, 2017
77. Automotive Market: Impact of Vehicle End of Life Policy on Focus Segments, Malaysia, 2017
78. Automotive Market: Overall Impact of Change in Free-zone Scheme on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2017
79. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Change in Free-zone Scheme, Thailand, 2017
80. Automotive Market: Overall Impact of Change in Emission Standards Implementation on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2017
81. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for Emission Standards Implementation, Thailand, 2017
82. Automotive Market: EV Policy & Implementation Incentives on Focus Segments, Thailand, 2017
83. Automotive Market: Overall Impact Grid for EV Policy & Implementation Incentives, Thailand, 2017



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