China Electric Vehicles (EV) Market, Unit Shipment Forecast and Growth Opportunities, 2024–2030

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Vehicle Industry

Geopolitical Chaos

Why

• Geopolitical conflicts such as the Russo-Ukrainian war and escalating US-China tensions may result in increased prices for essential raw materials for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, affecting production costs.
• Increased logistics costs due to these geopolitical conflicts could lead to supply chain disruptions, affecting the timely delivery of EVs.

Frost Perspective

• Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will diversify their raw material supply chains, identify alternative suppliers, and consider investing in resource extraction to reduce reliance on a single market.
• OEMs will strengthen cooperation with multiple logistics service providers to improve the flexibility of the supply chain. At the same time, they will establish more localized production bases to reduce dependence on remote supply chains.

Transformative Megatrends

Why

• Chinese authorities have enforced rigorous upgrades to emission standards and have encouraged the use of EVs.
• Over the next 7 years, EV sales are expected to rise rapidly. To maintain market stability and boost EV adoption, the Chinese government has extended the EV purchase tax exemption from 2024 to the end of 2027.

Frost Perspective

• EV sales will increase from 8.9 million units in 2023 to over 25.2 million units in 2030.

• More OEMs will launch new EV models that are increasingly compatible with battery swap solutions. Strategic collaborations are expected among stakeholders, especially between EV start-ups and international OEMs that typically focus on fuel-based powertrain solutions.

Competitive Intensity

Why

• In 2023, the annual EV sales in China reached 8.9 million units, indicating intense competition in the country’s EV industry. The market comprises over 30 OEMs, including domestic companies, joint ventures, and international brands.
• China’s EV industry is highly concentrated, with the top 3 OEMs collectively accounting for a combined market share of 50.3% as of 2023.

Frost Perspective

• China’s EV industry is entering a new stage, with incrementally intelligent EVs replacing traditional fuel-based vehicles.
• Frost & Sullivan expects that competition in this industry will become more fierce and feature more differentiated product portfolios, including economical and high-end models.

Scope of Analysis

In recent years, China's EV industry’s growth has been driven by the increased presence of domestic OEM brands and the continuing improvement and consumer acceptance of EVs.

In this research service, Frost & Sullivan provides the total size of China’s EV industry and historical and forecast data from 2020 to 2030. The study also offers the following:

• Highlights of China’s EV industry in 2023 and future market trends towards 2030
• Analysis of the Chinese EV industry by segment, including the vehicle and powertrain sub-segments
• Analysis of the rise of Chinese domestic brands

Segmentation

Automotive

• Passenger Vehicle
  • Powertrain Subcategory
    • Gasoline
    • Diesel
    • Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
      • BEV
      • PHEV
• Commercial Vehicle

* This study only discusses the sales of the highlighted segments. FCEV sales are rare and, therefore, not within the study scope. Range-extended EV (REEV) sales data is covered in the chapter on PHEVs.

Competitive Environment

Key Competitors

• Avatr
• BAIC
• BMW
• BYD
• Changan
• Chery
• FAW
• GAC
• Geometry
• Great Wall
• Leap Motor
• NIO
• SAIC
• Tesla
• Xpeng
• Zeekr
• Aito
• BYD
• Denza
• Changan
• GAC
• Geely
• Great Wall
• Li Auto
• SAIC-GM-Wuling
• SAIC-Roewe
• Seres
• Dazzlesky
• Shenzhen Carenergy
• State Grid
• Star Charge
• Tgood
• Xiaoju
• Yunkuaichong (YKC)
• Aulton
• Botan
• E-energee
• Energo
• NIO
• BYD
• China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB)
• Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL)
• Guoxuan