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Resilience From an Aging Vehicle Parc, Complemented By Digitization of the Value Chain to Usher in Post-pandemic Revival of the Automotive Aftermarket
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This study evaluates the trajectories of global economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic and elucidates the medium-term impact of muted demand and supply on aftermarket revenues for 2020. Taking the long-term view, the study also underscores growth opportunities and evolving business models that, if leveraged on, will aid the aftermarket’s resurgence when the global economy is restored to pre-pandemic levels.According to Frost and Sullivan’s analysis, aftermarket revenue expanded by 4.1% in 2019. This was largely driven by a 3.2% growth in vehicles in operation, with the contraction in global gross domestic product (GDP) growth stifling consumer expenditure on new vehicle purchases. Slowdown in new vehicle sales also meant increased focus on the aftermarket from all stakeholders, more so from the OES channel, to sustain business at the dealer level by offering new vehicle services. This translated into the development of newer partnerships and evolution of newer channels to the market. For 2020, Frost and Sullivan had initially forecast a 4.0% growth in aftermarket revenues, with India and China leading the growth. The COVID-19 pandemic has put paid to these hopes, and the global automotive aftermarket will have to pull through headwinds that will result in the industry posting a de-growth, ranging between 4.9% and 11.6%, depending on the nature of the ensuing economic recovery across regions.
The study aims to gauge the severity of the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on the global automotive aftermarket in 2020.
Although automotive sales had slackened in 2019, resilience from the global vehicle stock was expected to fuel growth opportunities for aftermarket stakeholders in 2020. With disruptions to businesses from fears of contagion snowballing into an economic crisis the world over, the aftermarket will also have to pull through its share of headwinds.
Key Issues Addressed
Author: Anuj Monga
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