South African Electricity Market—2016 Snapshot
South African Electricity Market—2016 Snapshot
Changing Economy and Expanding Renewable Energy Set to Alter Future of the Electricity Supply Industry
08-May-2017
Africa
Description
The electricity sector in South Africa has witnessed dynamic changes over the past few years. Sharp increases in electricity tariffs have been a prominent feature of the electricity supply industry in South Africa. Declining global commodity prices and increasing electricity prices have had a detrimental impact on the mining and manufacturing industry, which have experienced sluggish growth. The economy of South Africa is witnessing a gradual change with increased contribution from the services sector. As such, the demand for electricity has reduced. Decreasing costs of renewable energy technologies, regulatory reforms, market restructuring, coupled with the risks and delays associated with base-load coal and nuclear power will largely determine the future of the electricity sector in South Africa.
Table of Contents
Key Findings
Scope of Study
South Africa—Country Overview
Economic Outlook
GDP Contribution by Sector
Electricity Supply Industry—Market Structure
Sector Overview
Key Organisations
Current Installed Capacity—Technology and Ownership
Current Installed Capacity—Fuel Type and Owner
Evolution of Installed Capacity
Electricity Generation
Introduction to REIPPPP
REIPP Procurement Programme
REIPPPP—Procured and Operational Capacity
REIPPPP—Technology-wise Capacity Allocation per Bid Window
Current Installed Capacity Under REIPPP (Feb 2016)
Declining Prices of RE Power Projects per BW
Comparison of Power Generation Technologies Based on Unit Cost of Energy
Concerns Surrounding REIPPP and Future Build
Future Generation Mix as per IRP
Future Generation Plan for TDP 2016–2025
IRP 2016 in Numbers (New Build Options 2021–2050)
IRP 2016 Update—Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Existing Transmission Infrastructure
Transmission Development Plan—Major Planned Projects
Future Transmission Assets
Distribution Responsibilities (Eskom and Municipalities)
Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Trends
Electricity Sales per Customer Category
Electricity Sales in Southern Africa (Export)
IRP Projections 2010 and Update Base Case 2013
IRP Projections 2010 and 2013 Update (Anticipated Energy Consumption)
IRP Projections and Actual Situation
Understanding Various IRP Scenarios
CSIR Forecasts Using Sectoral Regression Model—Basis for IRP 2016 Base Case
Need for Annual IRP Updates
Eskom Tariff and Inflation
Evolution of Electricity Tariffs (Eskom Tariffs as per Consumer Category)
Evolution of Electricity Tariffs
Drivers
Restraints
Growth Opportunity 1—Power Generation
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
The 3 Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer
Acronyms
- 1. Macroeconomic Indicators, South Africa, FY2016
- 2. Ministerial Determination for Development of Renewable Energy Projects, South Africa, 2011–2015
- 3. Future Requirements for Transmission Equipment, South Africa, 2016–2025
- 4. Electricity Market: Market Drivers, South Africa, 2017–2022
- 5. Electricity Market: Market Restraints, South Africa, 2017–2022
- 1. Quarter-on-Quarter Economic Growth, Real GDP Growth, South Africa, Q1 2012–Q3 2016
- 2. GDP Contribution and Growth Rate, South Africa, Q3 2016
- 3. Sector-wise Contribution to GDP, South Africa, 2014
- 4. Nominal Capacity Available to Grid by Technology, South Africa, 2016
- 5. Nominal Capacity Available to Grid by Ownership, South Africa, 2016
- 6. Eskom Nominal Capacity, South Africa, 2016
- 7. IPP Nominal Capacity, South Africa, 2016
- 8. Installed Capacity and Peak Demand on Eskom Network, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
- 9. Electricity Output by Fuel Type, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
- 10. Status of REIPPPP, South Africa, 2016
- 11. Operational Capacity Under REIPPPP, South Africa, Q3 2014–Q4 2016
- 12. Technology-wise Capacity Allocation for Renewable Energy, South Africa, 2016
- 13. Commercial Capacity Operational by Technology, South Africa, 2016
- 14. Commercial Capacity Operation by Region, South Africa, 2016
- 15. Renewable Energy Price Path, South Africa, 2011–2016
- 16. Lifetime Cost per Energy Unit for Different Generation Technologies, South Africa, 2016
- 17. Proposed Generation Capacity by 2030 as per IRP 2010, South Africa, 2016
- 18. Proposed Generation Capacity by 2030 as per IRP 2013 (Updated), South Africa, 2016
- 19. New Generation Capacity as per Eskom TDP, South Africa, 2016–2025
- 20. Planned Power Station Capacity, South Africa, 2025
- 21. Proposed New Build Power Generation as per IRP 2016 Draft, South Africa, 2021–2050
- 22. Contribution by Installed Capacity, South Africa, 2020–2050
- 23. Contribution by Generating Capacity, South Africa, 2020–2050
- 24. Planned Transmission Infrastructure, South Africa, 2025
- 25. Electricity Sales and Peak Demand, South Africa, 2006/07–2015/16
- 26. Electricity Sales by Customer Category, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
- 27. Electricity Export by Country, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
- 28. Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2010 Scenario, South Africa, 2010–2030
- 29. Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2013 Scenario, South Africa, 2013–2030
- 30. Energy Consumption as per IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 Scenarios, South Africa, 2010–2030
- 31. IRP Projections vs. Actual Energy Consumption, South Africa, 2010–2016
- 32. Energy and Peak Demand Forecasts as per IRP 2016, South Africa, 2016–2030
- 33. Average Eskom Tariffs, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
Popular Topics
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Table of Contents | | Executive Summary~ || Key Findings~ | Introduction~ || Scope of Study~ | South Africa—Introduction~ || South Africa—Country Overview~ || Economic Outlook~ || GDP Contribution by Sector~ | Regulatory Framework and Organisations~ || Electricity Supply Industry—Market Structure~ || Sector Overview~ || Key Organisations~ ||| Department of Energy (DOE)~ ||| National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA)~ ||| Eskom~ ||| IPP~ ||| Municipalities~ ||| SAPP~ | Electricity Generation~ || Current Installed Capacity—Technology and Ownership~ || Current Installed Capacity—Fuel Type and Owner~ || Evolution of Installed Capacity~ || Electricity Generation~ || Introduction to REIPPPP~ || REIPP Procurement Programme~ || REIPPPP—Procured and Operational Capacity~ || REIPPPP—Technology-wise Capacity Allocation per Bid Window~ || Current Installed Capacity Under REIPPP (Feb 2016)~ || Declining Prices of RE Power Projects per BW~ || Comparison of Power Generation Technologies Based on Unit Cost of Energy~ || Concerns Surrounding REIPPP and Future Build~ || Future Generation Mix as per IRP~ || Future Generation Plan for TDP 2016–2025~ || IRP 2016 in Numbers (New Build Options 2021–2050)~ || IRP 2016 Update—Frost & Sullivan Analysis~ | Electricity Transmission~ || Existing Transmission Infrastructure~ || Transmission Development Plan—Major Planned Projects~ || Future Transmission Assets~ | Electricity Distribution and Supply~ || Distribution Responsibilities (Eskom and Municipalities)~ || Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Trends~ || Electricity Sales per Customer Category~ || Electricity Sales in Southern Africa (Export)~ | Peak Demand and Energy Projections~ || IRP Projections 2010 and Update Base Case 2013~ || IRP Projections 2010 and 2013 Update (Anticipated Energy Consumption)~ || IRP Projections and Actual Situation~ || Understanding Various IRP Scenarios~ || CSIR Forecasts Using Sectoral Regression Model—Basis for IRP 2016 Base Case~ || Need for Annual IRP Updates~ | Electricity Tariffs~ || Eskom Tariff and Inflation~ || Evolution of Electricity Tariffs (Eskom Tariffs as per Consumer Category)~ || Evolution of Electricity Tariffs~ | Drivers and Restraints~ || Drivers~ ||| Renewable energy potential of South Africa~ ||| Decreasing costs of RE technologies~ ||| Opportunities for localisation and job creation~ || Restraints~ ||| Shrinking economy and a reduced demand for electricity~ ||| No level playing field for private participants~ ||| Initial progress problems with the industry~ | Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action~ || Growth Opportunity 1—Power Generation~ || Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth~ | The Last Word~ || The 3 Big Predictions~ || Legal Disclaimer~ | Appendix~ || Acronyms~ | The Frost & Sullivan Story~ |
List of Charts and Figures | 1. Macroeconomic Indicators, South Africa, FY2016~ 2. Ministerial Determination for Development of Renewable Energy Projects, South Africa, 2011–2015~ 3. Future Requirements for Transmission Equipment, South Africa, 2016–2025~ 4. Electricity Market: Market Drivers, South Africa, 2017–2022~ 5. Electricity Market: Market Restraints, South Africa, 2017–2022~| 1. Quarter-on-Quarter Economic Growth, Real GDP Growth, South Africa, Q1 2012–Q3 2016~ 2. GDP Contribution and Growth Rate, South Africa, Q3 2016~ 3. Sector-wise Contribution to GDP, South Africa, 2014~ 4. Nominal Capacity Available to Grid by Technology, South Africa, 2016~ 5. Nominal Capacity Available to Grid by Ownership, South Africa, 2016~ 6. Eskom Nominal Capacity, South Africa, 2016~ 7. IPP Nominal Capacity, South Africa, 2016~ 8. Installed Capacity and Peak Demand on Eskom Network, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ 9. Electricity Output by Fuel Type, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ 10. Status of REIPPPP, South Africa, 2016~ 11. Operational Capacity Under REIPPPP, South Africa, Q3 2014–Q4 2016~ 12. Technology-wise Capacity Allocation for Renewable Energy, South Africa, 2016~ 13. Commercial Capacity Operational by Technology, South Africa, 2016~ 14. Commercial Capacity Operation by Region, South Africa, 2016~ 15. Renewable Energy Price Path, South Africa, 2011–2016~ 16. Lifetime Cost per Energy Unit for Different Generation Technologies, South Africa, 2016~ 17. Proposed Generation Capacity by 2030 as per IRP 2010, South Africa, 2016~ 18. Proposed Generation Capacity by 2030 as per IRP 2013 (Updated), South Africa, 2016~ 19. New Generation Capacity as per Eskom TDP, South Africa, 2016–2025~ 20. Planned Power Station Capacity, South Africa, 2025~ 21. Proposed New Build Power Generation as per IRP 2016 Draft, South Africa, 2021–2050~ 22. Contribution by Installed Capacity, South Africa, 2020–2050~ 23. Contribution by Generating Capacity, South Africa, 2020–2050~ 24. Planned Transmission Infrastructure, South Africa, 2025~ 25. Electricity Sales and Peak Demand, South Africa, 2006/07–2015/16~ 26. Electricity Sales by Customer Category, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ 27. Electricity Export by Country, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ 28. Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2010 Scenario, South Africa, 2010–2030~ 29. Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2013 Scenario, South Africa, 2013–2030~ 30. Energy Consumption as per IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 Scenarios, South Africa, 2010–2030~ 31. IRP Projections vs. Actual Energy Consumption, South Africa, 2010–2016~ 32. Energy and Peak Demand Forecasts as per IRP 2016, South Africa, 2016–2030~ 33. Average Eskom Tariffs, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ |
Author | Neeraj Sanjay Mense |
Industries | Energy |
WIP Number | MCCE-01-00-00-00 |
Keyword 1 | South African Electricity |
Keyword 2 | Electricity Supply Industry in SA |
Keyword 3 | electricity sector in South Africa |
Is Prebook | No |