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Global Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Powertrain Growth Outlook, 2022
Emission Reduction and Fuel Economy Requirements Continue to Steer the Industry Toward Electrification
10-May-2022
North America
Market Outlook
MG81-01-00-00-00
AU02317-GL-MO_26481
With concern about global warming increasing with each passing day, a primary focus of governments and the automotive industry has shifted from improving fuel economy to reducing emissions. Fuel economy has become secondary. Powertrain electrification initiatives have intensified, while efforts to improve in-cylinder process and exhaust aftertreatment systems also are ongoing.
To this end, xEVs, which include mild hybrid, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell electric vehicles, have witnessed substantial growth over the past 5 years. What is impressive is that the market downturn of the last couple of years because of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the time where xEVs have witnessed the highest growth. While internal combustion engines continue to be the leading powertrain type, electrification as a means of improving emissions and fuel economy is fast reaching the point where it becomes a necessity to meet future targets from 2025 and beyond.
This outlook examines the state of the powertrain industry in the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and many European countries for passenger cars, car- and truck-based SUVs, and pickups (all under 3.5 tons). It examines light vehicle sales by region for 2021 and further breaks down sales by powertrain type. It also delves into powertrain technology roadmaps through 2030 and offers a glimpse of upcoming motor solutions. Growth opportunities that would be of interest to all stakeholders are considered.
Author: Bharath Kumar Srinivasan
Overview—Our Top 12 Transformation Shifts
2021 Industry Highlights
Regional Emissions and Testing Procedures
Passenger Car CAFE Targets
Light Vehicle Sales
Light Vehicle Powertrains
The 2021 Global Automotive Powertrain Market—Forecast vs. Actual
State of the Industry During the Pandemic
Global Powertrain Industry Historic Sales
Predictions for 2022
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Powertrain Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM
Research Scope
Vehicle Segmentation
Segmentation
Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2021
Top 5 Global Economic Predictions for 2022
Global GDP Growth
2022 Scenario Analysis—Quarterly Global Growth
2022 Scenario Analysis Assumptions
2022 Global GDP Growth Snapshot
Advanced Economies—Predictions for 2022
Emerging Economies—Predictions for 2022
Vehicle Sales
Powertrain Distribution Trends
Passenger Car Powertrain Distribution
Notable Powertrain Markets
Notable Powertrain Markets (continued)
Powertrain Distribution Trends in the Top 5 Markets
Passenger Car Powertrain Distribution Trends in the Top 5 Markets
mHEVs—48V Systems Lead but 12V Systems Closing on 25% Share
FHEVs
EVs
Emissions Outlook
Powertrain Outlook
Vehicle Sales
Powertrain Distribution Trends
mHEVs—48V Systems Retain More Than 90% Market Share
FHEVs
EVs
Emissions Outlook
Powertrain Outlook
Vehicle Sales
Powertrain Distribution Trends
mHEVs
FHEVs
EVs
Emissions Outlook
Powertrain Outlook
Vehicle Sales
Powertrain Distribution Trends
mHEVs
FHEVs
EVs
Fuel Economy Outlook
Powertrain Outlook
Vehicle Sales
Powertrain Distribution Trends
mHEVs—48V Systems from Premium OEMs Most Preferred
FHEVs
EVs
Fuel Economy Outlook
Powertrain Outlook
Vehicle Sales
Powertrain Distribution Trends
mHEVs
FHEVs
EVs
Fuel Economy Outlook
Powertrain Outlook
Indonesia Vehicle Sales
Indonesia Vehicle Sales (continued)
Malaysia Vehicle Sales
Thailand Vehicle Sales
Powertrain Distribution Trends
Powertrain Distribution Trends (continued)
mHEVs
FHEVs
EVs
Fuel Economy and Emissions Outlook
Powertrain Outlook
Global Electric Motor Requirements, Roadmaps, and Targets
Magnet-free or No Rare Earth Magnet Motors
Axial Flux Motor Technologies
Growth Opportunity 1—Increased Investments in Lowering Emissions During and After Combustion
Growth Opportunity 1—Increased Investments in Lowering Emissions During and After Combustion (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—Increased Investments in Vehicle Electrification via xEVs
Growth Opportunity 2—Increased Investments in Vehicle Electrification via xEVs (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3—OEM-Supplier Partnerships for Electric Motors
Growth Opportunity 3—OEM-Supplier Partnerships for Electric Motors (continued)
Initialisms
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures
- CAFE Standards in Selected Locations, 2012 to 2030
- Light Vehicle Sales by Region, 2021 and 2022F
- Passenger Car and LCV Sales Forecast by Powertrain, Global, 2016–2022
- GDP Growth, Advanced, and Emerging and Developing Economies, Global, 2017–2022
- GDP Growth Scenario Analysis, Global, Q1 2019–Q4 2022
- Assumptions for 2022 Growth Scenarios
- GDP Growth Rate, Select Economies, 2020–2022
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Sales, Europe, 2020 and 2021
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Registration YoY Change, Europe, 2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, Europe, 2020-2022
- Passenger Car Powertrain Sales Breakdown by Country
- Leading Powertrain Types, Europe, 2021
- Top 5 Market Shares for Each Powertrain Type in 2021
- Bottom 5 Market Shares for Each Powertrain Type in 2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, 2020-2022
- Passenger Car Powertrain Sales Breakdown, 2020-2021
- mHEV Sales by System Type, Europe, 2019-2022
- mHEV Sales by Body Type, Europe, 2021
- Top 10 mHEV Models, Europe, 2021
- mHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, Europe, 2021
- FHEV Sales, Europe, 2019-2022
- FHEV Sales by Body Type, Europe, 2021
- Top 10 FHEV Models, Europe, 2021
- FHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, Europe, 2021
- EV Sales by Type, Europe, 2019-2022
- EV Sales by Body and Powertrain Type, Europe, 2021
- Top 10 EV Models, Europe, 2021
- EV Sales Percentage by OEM, Europe, 2021
- European Emission Standard Implementation Timeline
- Euro6 Emission Values
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Sales, US, 2020 and 2021
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Registration YoY Change, US, 2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, US, 2020–2022
- mHEV Sales by System Type, US, 2019-2022
- Top 10 mHEV Models, US, 2021
- mHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, US, 2021
- mHEV Sales by Body Type, US, 2021
- FHEV Vehicle Sales, US, 2019-2022
- FHEV Sales by Body Type, US, 2021
- FHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, US, 2021
- Top 10 FHEV Models, US, 2021
- EV Sales by Type, US, 2019-2022
- EV Sales by Body and Powertrain Type, US, 2021
- Top 10 EV Models, US, 2021
- EV Sales Percentage by OEM, US, 2021
- US CAFE CO2 and Fuel Economy Standard Timeline
- EPA Tier 3 Emission Values
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Sales, China, 2020 and 2021
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Registration YoY Change, China, 2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, China, 2020–2022
- mHEV Sales by Body Type, China, 2021
- Top 10 mHEV Models, China, 2021
- mHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, China, 2021
- mHEV Sales by System Type, China, 2019-2022
- FHEV Sales by Body Type, China, 2021
- Top 10 FHEV Models, China, 2021
- FHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, China, 2021
- FHEV Sales, China, 2019-2022
- EV Sales by Type, China, 2019-2022
- EV Sales by Body and Powertrain Type, China, 2021
- Top 10 EV Models, China, 2021
- EV Sales Percentage by OEM, China, 2021
- Chinese Emission Standard Implementation Timeline
- China6a Emission Values, China, 2021
- New Passenger Car Sales by Segment, Japan, 2021
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Sales, Japan, 2020 and 2021
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Registration YoY Change, Japan, 2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, Japan, 2020–2022
- mHEV Sales by System Type, Japan, 2019-2022
- mHEV Sales by Body Type, Japan, 2021
- Top 10 mHEV Models, Japan, 2021
- mHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, Japan, 2021
- FHEV Sales, Japan, 2019-2022
- FHEV Sales by Body Type, Japan, 2021
- Top 10 FHEV Models, Japan, 2021
- FHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, Japan, 2021
- EV Sales by Type, Japan, 2019-2022
- EV Sales by Body and Powertrain Type, Japan, 2021
- Top 10 EV Models, Japan, 2021
- EV Sales Percentage by OEM, Japan, 2021
- Japanese Fuel Economy Standard Timeline
- Current WLTP Emission Parameters
- Japanese Fuel Economy Value Timeline
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Sales, South Korea, 2020 and 2021
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Registrations YoY Change, South Korea, 2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, South Korea, 2020–2022
- mHEV Sales by System Type, South Korea, 2019-2022
- mHEV Sales by Body Type, South Korea, 2021
- Top 10 mHEV Models, South Korea, 2021
- mHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, South Korea, 2021
- FHEV Sales, South Korea, 2019-2022
- FHEV Sales by Body Type, South Korea, 2021
- Top 10 FHEV Models, South Korea, 2021
- FHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, South Korea, 2021
- EV Sales by Type, South Korea, 2019-2022
- EV Sales by Body and Powertrain Type, South Korea, 2021
- Top 10 EV Models, South Korea, 2021
- EV Sales Percentage by OEM, South Korea, 2021
- South Korean Legislation Timeline
- South Korean Emission Values
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Registration YoY Change, India, 2021
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Sales, India, 2020 and 2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, India, 2020–2022
- mHEV Sales by System Type, India, 2019-2022
- mHEV Sales by Body Type, India, 2021
- Top mHEV Models, India, 2021
- mHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, India, 2021
- FHEV Sales, India, 2019-2022
- FHEV Sales by Body Type, India, 2021
- Top FHEV Model, India, 2021
- FHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, India, 2021
- EV Sales by Type, India, 2019-2022
- EV Sales by Body and Powertrain Type, India, 2021
- Top 10 EV Models, India, 2021
- EV Sales Percentage by OEM, India, 2021
- Indian Legislation Timeline
- BS6 Emission Values
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Sales, Indonesia, 2020 and 2021
- Monthly Passenger Car and LCV Registration YoY Change, Indonesia, 2021
- Registration by Segment, Indonesia, 2021
- Sales by Segment and Capacity, Indonesia, 2021
- Monthly New Passenger Car Sales, Malaysia, 2020–2021
- Monthly New Passenger Car Registration YoY Change, Thailand, 2021
- Monthly New Passenger Car Sales, Thailand, 2020–2021
- Monthly New Passenger Car Registration YoY Change, Thailand, 2021
- Passenger Car Registration by Segment, Thailand, 2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, 2020–2021
- Powertrain Market Share Trends, 2022
- mHEV Sales by System Type, ASEAN, 2019-2022
- mHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, ASEAN, 2021
- mHEV Sales by Body Type, ASEAN, 2021
- Top 10 mHEV Models, ASEAN, 2021
- FHEV Sales, ASEAN, 2019-2022
- FHEV Sales by Body Type, ASEAN, 2021
- Top 10 FHEV Models, ASEAN, 2021
- FHEV Sales Percentage by OEM, ASEAN, 2021
- EV Sales by Type, ASEAN, 2019-2022
- EV Sales by Body and Powertrain Type, ASEAN, 2021
- Top 10 EV Models, ASEAN, 2021
- EV Sales Percentage by OEM, ASEAN, 2021
- ASEAN Legislation Timeline
- Euro4 Emission Values, ASEAN, 2022
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