Global Coach and Bus Growth Outlook, 2022

Global Coach and Bus Growth Outlook, 2022

Strong Growth for Zero Emission Buses in Europe and North America but Global Bus Market to Shrink Due to China

RELEASE DATE
27-Jun-2022
REGION
North America
Research Code: PCC6-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02353-NA-MO_26668
$4,950.00
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Description

The COVID-19 pandemic continued to have a global impact in 2021, with transit and bus operators facing financial constraints as daily commuting declined and people shifted to personalized transport to avoid infections. However, with vaccination drives underway, ridership is likely to increase in 2022. India and Latin America are candidates for strong growth in 2022, although volumes may be lower than 2019 levels. In developing countries, most of the population working in the informal sector is highly dependent on public transport for daily commute. They will drive the growth of the transit bus segment.

The size of the global bus market in 2021 was approximately 167,218 units. It is estimated to decline to about 165,819 units in 2022, shrinking at a negative year-over-year rate of 0.8%. This decline will predominantly be due to China, where there is a shift in passenger preference from buses to high-speed rail, aviation, and private passenger vehicles, along with a rise in shared mobility, including two-wheeler and carsharing.

Zero-emission powertrains in transit buses have gained momentum across Europe, North America, India, and Latin America. The EU Clean Vehicle Directive for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption. In Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ecuador, and Panama are developing an electromobility strategy to promote zero-emission buses in public transportation. Furthermore, the ZEBRA project will drive the adoption of electric powertrain across various municipalities. In India, FAME II is driving alternate powertrain adoption in intracity and intercity routes across the country and various State Transport Units (STUs). In North America, the Low or No Emission Program, Clean Transit, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) will increase the funding for zero-emission buses. Newer business models in the electric bus market aim to reduce the initial cost gap between electric and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) buses. The separation of ownership and operation of electric buses, battery leasing, and maintenance will drive the adoption of electric buses.

Geopolitical crises along with high inflation will encourage most central banks to raise interest rates, derailing the recovery. In H1 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices, weaker external trade, and supply-chain difficulties arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict will restrain growth. The slowdown in China, impacting foreign trade and financial markets, will also partially weigh on growth. Traditional OEMs in various regions are expanding their product portfolios to include battery-electric and fuel-cell buses in the transit segment. In the bus market, there are strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new participants striving to enter the market. A relatively lower total cost of ownership of electric buses compared to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will drive the adoption of electric buses across different regions.

Author: Saideep Sudhakar

Table of Contents

Top Commercial Vehicle Trends in 2022

Key Highlights of the Global Bus Industry

Snapshot by Region in 2022

Regional Comparison of Progress in Technologies

Estimated Growth in 2022

Top Predictions for 2022

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Bus Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Research Scope

Product and Technology Segmentation

Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2021

Top 5 Global Economic Predictions for 2022

Global GDP Growth

2022 Scenario Analysis—Quarterly Global Growth

2022 Scenario Analysis—Assumptions

Protracted War Leads To Further Global Growth Downgrade; GCC Sees Strong Growth Uptick

Recent Upward and Downward Oil Price Pressures from Demand-side Weakness and Proposed EU Ban on Russian Oil

What to Expect Ahead?

Top 5 Global Predictions For 2022—Macroeconomic Policies and Developments

2022 Growth Opportunities—Top 3 Opportunities by Region

2022 Regional Trends—Risks and Policy Direction

Forecast Overview

Global Transit and Coach Bus Forecast by Region

2022 BUS Powertrain Technology Forecast

Regional Snapshot

North America—Race to Zero Targets

Quarterly Bus Sales—North America

Powertrain Technology Split

2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Regional Snapshot

Europe

Quarterly Bus Sales—Europe

Powertrain Technology Split

2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms (continued)

Regional Snapshot

Quarterly Bus Data—China

Powertrain Technology Split

2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Regional Snapshot

India Key Cities with Electrification Targets

Quarterly Bus Data—India

Powertrain Technology Split

2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Regional Snapshot

Latin America

Quarterly Bus Data—Latin America

Powertrain Technology Split

2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Overview of Driver Assistance Systems

Regulations—Driver Assistance Systems

Driver Assistance Systems—Favourability by Applications

Bus Telematics Market in NA and EU—Transit and Coaches

Bus Telematics Market in NA and EU—Services Ladder

Transit and Coaches segment—Favourability by Applications

Parameters and Assumptions—Transit Buses, Europe

Diesel, NG, Electric, Fuel Cell Transit Bus Operational CPM Comparison

Operational Cost PER Mile—Diesel, Electric, NG, Fuel Cell*

Growth Opportunity 1—Move Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation Through Electrification

Growth Opportunity 1—Move Towards Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation Through Electrification (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2—Development in Advanced Connectivity and Safety Features in Commercial Mobility

Growth Opportunity 2—Development in Advanced Connectivity and Safety Features in Commercial Mobility (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3—Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for Fuel-Cell buses Across Segments and Different Use Cases

Growth Opportunity 3—Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for Fuel Cell buses Across Segments and Different Use Cases (continued)

Abbreviations and Acronyms

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

The COVID-19 pandemic continued to have a global impact in 2021, with transit and bus operators facing financial constraints as daily commuting declined and people shifted to personalized transport to avoid infections. However, with vaccination drives underway, ridership is likely to increase in 2022. India and Latin America are candidates for strong growth in 2022, although volumes may be lower than 2019 levels. In developing countries, most of the population working in the informal sector is highly dependent on public transport for daily commute. They will drive the growth of the transit bus segment. The size of the global bus market in 2021 was approximately 167,218 units. It is estimated to decline to about 165,819 units in 2022, shrinking at a negative year-over-year rate of 0.8%. This decline will predominantly be due to China, where there is a shift in passenger preference from buses to high-speed rail, aviation, and private passenger vehicles, along with a rise in shared mobility, including two-wheeler and carsharing. Zero-emission powertrains in transit buses have gained momentum across Europe, North America, India, and Latin America. The EU Clean Vehicle Directive for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption. In Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ecuador, and Panama are developing an electromobility strategy to promote zero-emission buses in public transportation. Furthermore, the ZEBRA project will drive the adoption of electric powertrain across various municipalities. In India, FAME II is driving alternate powertrain adoption in intracity and intercity routes across the country and various State Transport Units (STUs). In North America, the Low or No Emission Program, Clean Transit, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) will increase the funding for zero-emission buses. Newer business models in the electric bus market aim to reduce the initial cost gap between electric and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) buses. The separation of ownership and operation of electric buses, battery leasing, and maintenance will drive the adoption of electric buses. Geopolitical crises along with high inflation will encourage most central banks to raise interest rates, derailing the recovery. In H1 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices, weaker external trade, and supply-chain difficulties arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict will restrain growth. The slowdown in China, impacting foreign trade and financial markets, will also partially weigh on growth. Traditional OEMs in various regions are expanding their product portfolios to include battery-electric and fuel-cell buses in the transit segment. In the bus market, there are strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new participants striving to enter the market. A relatively lower total cost of ownership of electric buses compared to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will drive the adoption of electric buses across different regions. Author: Saideep Sudhakar
More Information
Author Saideep Sudhakar
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Podcast No
WIP Number PCC6-01-00-00-00