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Strong Growth for Zero Emission Buses in Europe and North America but Global Bus Market to Shrink Due to China
27-Jun-2022
North America
Market Outlook
PCC6-01-00-00-00
AU02353-NA-MO_26668
The COVID-19 pandemic continued to have a global impact in 2021, with transit and bus operators facing financial constraints as daily commuting declined and people shifted to personalized transport to avoid infections. However, with vaccination drives underway, ridership is likely to increase in 2022. India and Latin America are candidates for strong growth in 2022, although volumes may be lower than 2019 levels. In developing countries, most of the population working in the informal sector is highly dependent on public transport for daily commute. They will drive the growth of the transit bus segment.
The size of the global bus market in 2021 was approximately 167,218 units. It is estimated to decline to about 165,819 units in 2022, shrinking at a negative year-over-year rate of 0.8%. This decline will predominantly be due to China, where there is a shift in passenger preference from buses to high-speed rail, aviation, and private passenger vehicles, along with a rise in shared mobility, including two-wheeler and carsharing.
Zero-emission powertrains in transit buses have gained momentum across Europe, North America, India, and Latin America. The EU Clean Vehicle Directive for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption. In Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ecuador, and Panama are developing an electromobility strategy to promote zero-emission buses in public transportation. Furthermore, the ZEBRA project will drive the adoption of electric powertrain across various municipalities. In India, FAME II is driving alternate powertrain adoption in intracity and intercity routes across the country and various State Transport Units (STUs). In North America, the Low or No Emission Program, Clean Transit, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) will increase the funding for zero-emission buses. Newer business models in the electric bus market aim to reduce the initial cost gap between electric and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) buses. The separation of ownership and operation of electric buses, battery leasing, and maintenance will drive the adoption of electric buses.
Geopolitical crises along with high inflation will encourage most central banks to raise interest rates, derailing the recovery. In H1 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices, weaker external trade, and supply-chain difficulties arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict will restrain growth. The slowdown in China, impacting foreign trade and financial markets, will also partially weigh on growth. Traditional OEMs in various regions are expanding their product portfolios to include battery-electric and fuel-cell buses in the transit segment. In the bus market, there are strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new participants striving to enter the market. A relatively lower total cost of ownership of electric buses compared to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will drive the adoption of electric buses across different regions.
Author: Saideep Sudhakar
Top Commercial Vehicle Trends in 2022
Key Highlights of the Global Bus Industry
Snapshot by Region in 2022
Regional Comparison of Progress in Technologies
Estimated Growth in 2022
Top Predictions for 2022
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Bus Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Research Scope
Product and Technology Segmentation
Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2021
Top 5 Global Economic Predictions for 2022
Global GDP Growth
2022 Scenario Analysis—Quarterly Global Growth
2022 Scenario Analysis—Assumptions
Protracted War Leads To Further Global Growth Downgrade; GCC Sees Strong Growth Uptick
Recent Upward and Downward Oil Price Pressures from Demand-side Weakness and Proposed EU Ban on Russian Oil
What to Expect Ahead?
Top 5 Global Predictions For 2022—Macroeconomic Policies and Developments
2022 Growth Opportunities—Top 3 Opportunities by Region
2022 Regional Trends—Risks and Policy Direction
Forecast Overview
Global Transit and Coach Bus Forecast by Region
2022 BUS Powertrain Technology Forecast
Regional Snapshot
North America—Race to Zero Targets
Quarterly Bus Sales—North America
Powertrain Technology Split
2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Regional Snapshot
Europe
Quarterly Bus Sales—Europe
Powertrain Technology Split
2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms (continued)
Regional Snapshot
Quarterly Bus Data—China
Powertrain Technology Split
2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Regional Snapshot
India Key Cities with Electrification Targets
Quarterly Bus Data—India
Powertrain Technology Split
2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Regional Snapshot
Latin America
Quarterly Bus Data—Latin America
Powertrain Technology Split
2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Overview of Driver Assistance Systems
Regulations—Driver Assistance Systems
Driver Assistance Systems—Favourability by Applications
Bus Telematics Market in NA and EU—Transit and Coaches
Bus Telematics Market in NA and EU—Services Ladder
Transit and Coaches segment—Favourability by Applications
Parameters and Assumptions—Transit Buses, Europe
Diesel, NG, Electric, Fuel Cell Transit Bus Operational CPM Comparison
Operational Cost PER Mile—Diesel, Electric, NG, Fuel Cell*
Growth Opportunity 1—Move Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation Through Electrification
Growth Opportunity 1—Move Towards Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation Through Electrification (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—Development in Advanced Connectivity and Safety Features in Commercial Mobility
Growth Opportunity 2—Development in Advanced Connectivity and Safety Features in Commercial Mobility (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3—Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for Fuel-Cell buses Across Segments and Different Use Cases
Growth Opportunity 3—Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for Fuel Cell buses Across Segments and Different Use Cases (continued)
Abbreviations and Acronyms
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures
- Buses: Unit Shipment Forecast by Region, Global, 2022
- Buses: Progress* in Key Technologies by Region, Global, 2022
- Buses: Estimated Growth Rate of Transit and Coach, Global, 2021 and 2022
- GDP Growth, Advanced, and Emerging and Developing Economies, Global, 2017–2022
- GDP Growth Scenario Analysis, Global, Q1 2019–Q4 2022
- Assumptions for Growth Scenarios, Global, 2022
- Impact of War on 2022 GDP Growth Figures, Global, 2022
- Macroeconomic Data Dynamics, Global, 2022
- Macroeconomic Predictions and Scenario Outcomes, Global, 2022
- Regional Risks and Policy Direction, Global, 2022
- Buses: Transit and Coach Bus Unit Shipment, Global, 2021 and 2022
- Transit Bus: Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2021 and 2022
- Coach: Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2021 and 2022
- Buses: Powertrain Technology Forecast, Global, 2022
- Buses: Quarter-over-quarter Sales, North America, 2019–2021
- Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, North America, 2021–2022
- Buses: OEM Performance, North America, 2021
- Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, North America, 2020–2025
- Buses: Quarter-over-Quarter Sales, Europe, 2019–2021
- Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, Europe, 2021–2022
- Buses: Bus OEM Performance, Europe, 2021
- Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, Europe, 2020–2025
- Buses: Quarter-over-Quarter Sales, China, 2019–2021
- Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, China, 2021–2022
- Buses: Bus OEM Performance, China, 2021
- Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, China, 2020–2025
- Buses: Quarter-over-Quarter Sales, India, 2021–2022
- Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, India, 2021–2021
- Buses: OEM Performance, India, 2021
- Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, India, 2020–2025
- Buses: Quarter-over-Quarter Sales, Latin America, 2019–2021
- Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, Latin America, 2021–2022
- Buses: OEM Performance, LATAM, 2021
- Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, Latin America, 2020–2025
- Bus Telematics: VIO and Installed Base Forecast, NA and EU, 2020–2025
- Transit Buses: Assumptions for TCO Forecast, Europe, 2020–2033
- Buses: Cost Per Mile Comparison of Powertrains, Europe, 2020–2033
- Buses: Operational Cost Forecast Per Mile, Europe, 2020–2033
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| Deliverable Type | Market Outlook |
|---|---|
| Author | Saideep Sudhakar |
| Industries | Automotive |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| List of Charts and Figures | Buses: Unit Shipment Forecast by Region, Global, 2022~ Buses: Progress* in Key Technologies by Region, Global, 2022~ Buses: Estimated Growth Rate of Transit and Coach, Global, 2021 and 2022~ GDP Growth, Advanced, and Emerging and Developing Economies, Global, 2017–2022~ GDP Growth Scenario Analysis, Global, Q1 2019–Q4 2022~ Assumptions for Growth Scenarios, Global, 2022~ Impact of War on 2022 GDP Growth Figures, Global, 2022~ Macroeconomic Data Dynamics, Global, 2022~ Macroeconomic Predictions and Scenario Outcomes, Global, 2022~ Regional Risks and Policy Direction, Global, 2022~ Buses: Transit and Coach Bus Unit Shipment, Global, 2021 and 2022~ Transit Bus: Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2021 and 2022~ Coach: Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2021 and 2022~ Buses: Powertrain Technology Forecast, Global, 2022~ Buses: Quarter-over-quarter Sales, North America, 2019–2021~ Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, North America, 2021–2022~ Buses: OEM Performance, North America, 2021~ Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, North America, 2020–2025~ Buses: Quarter-over-Quarter Sales, Europe, 2019–2021~ Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, Europe, 2021–2022~ Buses: Bus OEM Performance, Europe, 2021~ Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, Europe, 2020–2025~ Buses: Quarter-over-Quarter Sales, China, 2019–2021~ Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, China, 2021–2022~ Buses: Bus OEM Performance, China, 2021~ Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, China, 2020–2025~ Buses: Quarter-over-Quarter Sales, India, 2021–2022~ Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, India, 2021–2021~ Buses: OEM Performance, India, 2021~ Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, India, 2020–2025~ Buses: Quarter-over-Quarter Sales, Latin America, 2019–2021~ Buses: Powertrain Technology Split, Latin America, 2021–2022~ Buses: OEM Performance, LATAM, 2021~ Buses: OEM Powertrain Platform, Latin America, 2020–2025~ Bus Telematics: VIO and Installed Base Forecast, NA and EU, 2020–2025~ Transit Buses: Assumptions for TCO Forecast, Europe, 2020–2033~ Buses: Cost Per Mile Comparison of Powertrains, Europe, 2020–2033~ Buses: Operational Cost Forecast Per Mile, Europe, 2020–2033~ |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | PCC6-01-00-00-00 |
Global Coach and Bus Growth Outlook, 2022
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