Global Commercial Vehicle Electrification Potential and Trends, Forecast to 2025

Global Commercial Vehicle Electrification Potential and Trends, Forecast to 2025

Drop in Battery Pack Price Below $100/kwh Compounded by Slew of eTruck Product Launches to Capitalise on Subsidies are Poised to Push Electrification in MD & HD Truck Segment to 11.1% by 2025 Translating to 250,000 Market Opportunity

RELEASE DATE
26-Oct-2018
REGION
North America
Research Code: K2FF-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU01722-NA-MR_22477

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Description

GHG emission regulations are ever strengthening in North America, Europe, and China. Climate change concerns among the public is especially propelling the automotive industry to reduce carbon footprint. Countries are looking for options to improve air quality in their communities and to contribute to mitigation of global climate change through electrification. This study provides an overview of the key trends in medium commercial vehicle ranging between 6.1 tonnes and 16 tonnes, and heavy commercial vehicle ranging above 16 tonnes segments of global electric truck market from 2016 to 2025. The various factors attracting adoption of electric trucks and the top challenges are studied in brief. The study reveals that the Chinese truck market will dominate the electric truck market with aggressive plan of subsidy rollout coupled with deployment of charging infrastructure systems in large scale. China is leading the electrification and contributes to 50% of the global electric truck sales in today’s scenario, and the trend is expected to remain the same by 2025. North America, mainly Canada and the US, is expected to be the second largest market for electric trucks, having new disruptors emerging from the market. The incentive policies and stringent emission regulations in Europe, North America, and China will motivate the buyers, and the growing consumer demand for electric trucks will be satisfied by the product line-ups planned by OEMs. New entrants like Tesla and Nikola are expected to disrupt the North American market, while Chinese manufacturers are eyeing on export markets to uphold the market dominance in terms of electric truck sales volume. The electric powertrain adoption is poised to accelerate post 2020 due to the fall in battery prices. This study provides a summary on the available drivetrain technologies in the industry and future adoptions. By 2025, the penetration of electrification is expected to be 28.5% in medium-duty trucks and 6.5% in heavy-duty trucks in China. In North America, the penetration of electric powertrain is expected to be 8.3% and 12.3% in medium- and heavy-duty trucks, respectively. Several Western European countries are planning to adopt the ICE ban from 2025–2030, with expanding low-emission zones planning to ban diesel and gasoline engines. The new GHG emission regulations in Europe are pushing hard to achieve CO2 and fuel economy standards to satisfy EISA lead-time requirement. The electric powertrain adoption is expected to be 15% in medium-duty trucks and 5.2% in heavy-duty trucks in Europe. The world of batteries is changing very rapidly making it very hard to predict the most promising battery chemistry; however, some trends are already visible when limiting to lithium-ion based batteries. With battery prices dropping nearly 80% during 2010–2017, electric vehicles have become the favourite alternative powertrain for automakers both incumbent (such as Daimler, Volvo, and Scania) and startups (such as Tesla, Orange EV, and Nikola) ahead of hybrids. Fuel cell electric vehicles will be the future trend and will start acquiring the market from 2020 due to the intensity of energy in hydrogen and light weight, making the technology suitable for trucks. The rapid technology developments in electrification and huge market potential are inviting new technology participants and startups to invest in the CV space, whereas the transition is compelling the existing manufacturers to adopt the next-generation technology. With wide range of fiscal incentives and other benefits by government, emergence of eMobility value chain, and rising consumer awareness on usage benefits and cost savings, the market opportunity for electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks is predicted to be 250,000 units by 2025.

Table of Contents

Electric Truck Market Outlook of Key Regions

Technology Advancements Aiding Electric Trucks

Top 4 Market Drivers in Adoption of Electric Trucks

Top 4 Challenges in Adoption of Electric Trucks

Key Developments in the Electric Truck Market

Research Scope

Powertrain Technology Segmentation

Definitions

Research Aims and Objectives

Research Background

Research Methodology

Partial List of Industries Compared

Key Factors Impacting Electrification

Legislative Factors Analysis

Economic Factors Analysis

Infrastructure Factors Analysis

Technological Factors Analysis

MD Truck Use Case Analysis

HD Truck Use Case Analysis

Key Components of Electric Vehicles

Electric Driveline Architecture Benchmarking

Electric Motor Technology Benchmarking

Power Electronics Technology Roadmap

Future of Battery Chemistries in EVs—Technology Roadmap

Lithium Ion Batteries Comparative Analysis

Lithium-ion Batteries Continue to Make Promising Gains

Battery Production Capacity to 2025

CHAdeMO Charging Roadmap

Charging Interface Initiative (CHARIN)

Forecasting Methodology

MD & HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast

Breakdown by Weight Segment and Region

Electric MD Market Outlook of Key Regions—2025

Electric HD Market Outlook of Key Regions—2025

Electric Powertrain—Purchase Incentive by Chinese Central Government

Electric Trucks—Purchase Incentive by Key Regional Government

Electric Powertrain—Key Influencing Trends

Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap

HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast

HD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast

MD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

National Truck Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards

Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap

HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast

HD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast

MD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

UK, Italy, and Germany—Leading the Initiative with Low-Emission Zones

City Urban Access Restriction

Overview of Incentives

Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap

HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast

HD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast

MD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

Growth Opportunity

Strategic Imperatives for Electric MD & HD Truck Market

Future Outlook—2025

The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

Market Engineering Methodology

List of Exhibits

List of Figures
  • 1. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Electric Powertrain Definition, Global, 2017–2025
  • 2. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Partial List of Companies Compared, Global, 2018
  • 3. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Factors Impacting Electrification, Global, 2017–2025
  • 4. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Legislative Factors, Global, 2017–2025
  • 5. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Economic Factors, Global, 2017–2025
  • 6. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Infrastructure Factors, Global, 2017–2025
  • 7. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Technological Factors, Global, 2017–2025
  • 8. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Use Case for Electric MD Trucks, Global, 2017
  • 9. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Use Case for Electric HD Trucks, Global, 2017
  • 10. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Electric Driveline Architecture, Global, 2017–2030
  • 11. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Electric Motor Technology Roadmap, Global, 2017–2030
  • 12. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Motor Technology Benchmarking, Global, 2017–2030
  • 13. Lithium Ion Batteries Comparative Analysis, Global, 2018
  • 14. Electric Truck Market: Purchase Incentive by Chinese Central Government, China, 2016–2020
  • 15. Electric Truck Market: Purchase Incentive by Key Regional Government, China, 2017
  • 16. Electric Truck Market: Key Influencing Trends, China, 2018
  • 17. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, China, 2017–2022
  • 18. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, China, 2017–2022
  • 19. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Fuel Economy and Emission Standards, North America, 2016–2027
  • 20. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, North America, 2017–2022
  • 21. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, North America, 2017–2022
  • 22. Electric Truck Market: Low Emission Zones, Europe, 2017
  • 23. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Urban Access Restrictions, Europe, 2016–2025
  • 24. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Purchase Subsidies and Incentives, Europe, 2017
  • 25. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, Europe, 2017–2022
List of Charts
  • 1. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Market Outlook, Key Regions, 2025
  • 2. Powertrain Technology Segmentation, Global, 2017–2025
  • 3. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Power Electronics Technology Roadmap, Global, 2017–2030
  • 4. Total EV Market: Future Battery Chemistries in EVs—Technology Roadmap, Global, 2017–2030
  • 5. Battery Technology Roadmap, Global, 2017–2030
  • 6. Planned Battery Production Capacity, Global, 2017 & 2025
  • 7. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: CHAdeMO Charging Roadmap, Global, 2017–2025
  • 8. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Roadmap for Charging Interface Initiative, Global, 2017–2025
  • 9. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, Global, 2017–2025
  • 10. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Breakdown by Weight Segment and Region, Global, 2017–2025
  • 11. Total Electric MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Region*, Global, 2025
  • 12. Total Electric HD Truck Market: Breakdown by Region*, Global, 2025
  • 13. Electric HD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, China, 2017–2025
  • 14. HD Truck Market Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, China, 2017 and 2025
  • 15. HD Truck Market Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, China, 2017 and 2025
  • 16. Electric MD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, China, 2017–2025
  • 17. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, China, 2017 & 2025
  • 18. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, China, 2017 & 2025
  • 19. Electric HD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, North America, 2017–2025
  • 20. HD Truck Market Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, North America, 2017 and 2025
  • 21. HD Truck Market Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, North America, 2017 and 2025
  • 22. Electric MD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, North America, 2017–2025
  • 23. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, North America, 2017 and 2025
  • 24. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, North America, 2017 and 2025
  • 25. Electric HD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, Europe, 2017–2025
  • 26. HD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, Europe, 2017 & 2025
  • 27. HD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, Europe, 2017 & 2025
  • 28. Electric MD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, Europe, 2017–2025
  • 29. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, Europe, 2017 & 2025
  • 30. MD Truck Markey: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, Europe, 2017 & 2025
Related Research
GHG emission regulations are ever strengthening in North America, Europe, and China. Climate change concerns among the public is especially propelling the automotive industry to reduce carbon footprint. Countries are looking for options to improve air quality in their communities and to contribute to mitigation of global climate change through electrification. This study provides an overview of the key trends in medium commercial vehicle ranging between 6.1 tonnes and 16 tonnes, and heavy commercial vehicle ranging above 16 tonnes segments of global electric truck market from 2016 to 2025. The various factors attracting adoption of electric trucks and the top challenges are studied in brief. The study reveals that the Chinese truck market will dominate the electric truck market with aggressive plan of subsidy rollout coupled with deployment of charging infrastructure systems in large scale. China is leading the electrification and contributes to 50% of the global electric truck sales in today’s scenario, and the trend is expected to remain the same by 2025. North America, mainly Canada and the US, is expected to be the second largest market for electric trucks, having new disruptors emerging from the market. The incentive policies and stringent emission regulations in Europe, North America, and China will motivate the buyers, and the growing consumer demand for electric trucks will be satisfied by the product line-ups planned by OEMs. New entrants like Tesla and Nikola are expected to disrupt the North American market, while Chinese manufacturers are eyeing on export markets to uphold the market dominance in terms of electric truck sales volume. The electric powertrain adoption is poised to accelerate post 2020 due to the fall in battery prices. This study provides a summary on the available drivetrain technologies in the industry and future adoptions. By 2025, the penetration of electrification is expected to be 28.5% in medium-duty trucks and 6.5% in heavy-duty tr
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Table of Contents | Executive Summary~ || Electric Truck Market Outlook of Key Regions~ || Technology Advancements Aiding Electric Trucks~ || Top 4 Market Drivers in Adoption of Electric Trucks~ || Top 4 Challenges in Adoption of Electric Trucks~ || Key Developments in the Electric Truck Market~ | Research Scope and Segmentation~ || Research Scope~ || Powertrain Technology Segmentation~ || Definitions~ || Research Aims and Objectives~ || Research Background~ || Research Methodology~ || Partial List of Industries Compared~ | Market Environment and Dynamics~ || Key Factors Impacting Electrification~ || Legislative Factors Analysis~ || Economic Factors Analysis~ || Infrastructure Factors Analysis~ || Technological Factors Analysis~ | Use Case Analysis~ || MD Truck Use Case Analysis~ || HD Truck Use Case Analysis~ | Electrification Technology Overview~ || Key Components of Electric Vehicles~ || Electric Driveline Architecture Benchmarking~ || Electric Motor Technology Benchmarking~ || Power Electronics Technology Roadmap~ || Future of Battery Chemistries in EVs—Technology Roadmap~ || Lithium Ion Batteries Comparative Analysis~ || Lithium-ion Batteries Continue to Make Promising Gains~ || Battery Production Capacity to 2025~ || CHAdeMO Charging Roadmap~ || Charging Interface Initiative (CHARIN)~ | Global Market Outlook—MD & HD Electric Trucks~ || Forecasting Methodology~ || MD & HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast~ || Breakdown by Weight Segment and Region~ || Electric MD Market Outlook of Key Regions—2025~ || Electric HD Market Outlook of Key Regions—2025~ | Chinese MD & HD Electric Truck Market Overview~ || Electric Powertrain—Purchase Incentive by Chinese Central Government~ || Electric Trucks—Purchase Incentive by Key Regional Government~ || Electric Powertrain—Key Influencing Trends~ || Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap~ || HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast~ || HD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast~ || MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast~ || MD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast~ | North American MD & HD Electric Truck Market Overview~ || National Truck Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards~ || Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap~ || HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast~ || HD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast~ || MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast~ || MD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast~ | European MD & HD Electric Truck Market Overview~ || UK, Italy, and Germany—Leading the Initiative with Low-Emission Zones~ || City Urban Access Restriction~ || Overview of Incentives~ || Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap~ || HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast~ || HD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast~ || MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast~ || MD Truck—Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast~ | Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action~ || Growth Opportunity~ || Strategic Imperatives for Electric MD & HD Truck Market~ | Key Conclusions and Future Outlook~ || Future Outlook—2025~ || The Last Word—3 Big Predictions~ || Legal Disclaimer~ | Appendix~ || Market Engineering Methodology~ || List of Exhibits~
List of Charts and Figures 1. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Electric Powertrain Definition, Global, 2017–2025~ 2. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Partial List of Companies Compared, Global, 2018~ 3. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Factors Impacting Electrification, Global, 2017–2025~ 4. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Legislative Factors, Global, 2017–2025~ 5. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Economic Factors, Global, 2017–2025~ 6. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Infrastructure Factors, Global, 2017–2025~ 7. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Technological Factors, Global, 2017–2025~ 8. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Use Case for Electric MD Trucks, Global, 2017~ 9. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Use Case for Electric HD Trucks, Global, 2017~ 10. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Electric Driveline Architecture, Global, 2017–2030~ 11. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Electric Motor Technology Roadmap, Global, 2017–2030~ 12. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Motor Technology Benchmarking, Global, 2017–2030~ 13. Lithium Ion Batteries Comparative Analysis, Global, 2018~ 14. Electric Truck Market: Purchase Incentive by Chinese Central Government, China, 2016–2020~ 15. Electric Truck Market: Purchase Incentive by Key Regional Government, China, 2017~ 16. Electric Truck Market: Key Influencing Trends, China, 2018~ 17. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, China, 2017–2022~ 18. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, China, 2017–2022~ 19. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Fuel Economy and Emission Standards, North America, 2016–2027~ 20. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, North America, 2017–2022~ 21. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, North America, 2017–2022~ 22. Electric Truck Market: Low Emission Zones, Europe, 2017~ 23. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Urban Access Restrictions, Europe, 2016–2025~ 24. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Purchase Subsidies and Incentives, Europe, 2017~ 25. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Model Introductions, Europe, 2017–2022~| 1. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Market Outlook, Key Regions, 2025~ 2. Powertrain Technology Segmentation, Global, 2017–2025~ 3. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Power Electronics Technology Roadmap, Global, 2017–2030~ 4. Total EV Market: Future Battery Chemistries in EVs—Technology Roadmap, Global, 2017–2030~ 5. Battery Technology Roadmap, Global, 2017–2030~ 6. Planned Battery Production Capacity, Global, 2017 & 2025 ~ 7. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: CHAdeMO Charging Roadmap, Global, 2017–2025~ 8. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Roadmap for Charging Interface Initiative, Global, 2017–2025~ 9. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, Global, 2017–2025~ 10. Electric MD & HD Truck Market: Breakdown by Weight Segment and Region, Global, 2017–2025~ 11. Total Electric MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Region*, Global, 2025~ 12. Total Electric HD Truck Market: Breakdown by Region*, Global, 2025~ 13. Electric HD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, China, 2017–2025~ 14. HD Truck Market Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, China, 2017 and 2025~ 15. HD Truck Market Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, China, 2017 and 2025~ 16. Electric MD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, China, 2017–2025~ 17. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, China, 2017 & 2025~ 18. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, China, 2017 & 2025~ 19. Electric HD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, North America, 2017–2025~ 20. HD Truck Market Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, North America, 2017 and 2025~ 21. HD Truck Market Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, North America, 2017 and 2025~ 22. Electric MD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, North America, 2017–2025~ 23. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, North America, 2017 and 2025~ 24. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, North America, 2017 and 2025~ 25. Electric HD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, Europe, 2017–2025~ 26. HD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, Europe, 2017 & 2025~ 27. HD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, Europe, 2017 & 2025~ 28. Electric MD Truck Market: Sales Forecast, Europe, 2017–2025~ 29. MD Truck Market: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Type, Europe, 2017 & 2025~ 30. MD Truck Markey: Breakdown by Electric Powertrain Adoption, Europe, 2017 & 2025~
Author Chandramowli Kailasam
Industries Automotive
WIP Number K2FF-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9673-A6,9800-A6,9807-A6,9813-A6,9882-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6,9B01-A6