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The Electric Light Commercial Vehicle (eLCV) Market is Poised to Reach 1.09 Million Units Globally by 2025, Driven by Falling Battery Prices and Increasing Urban Emission Restrictions
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The demand for electric light-duty (LD) trucks will surge globally with the framing of strict emission regulations. This study provides an overview of the key regional trends in light commercial vehicles (LCVs) ranging up to 6 tonnes of the global electric truck market between 2016 and 2025. Several legislative and environmental factors favouring the electrification of trucks and the top challenges are studied in brief. Frost & Sullivan analysts predict the electric powertrain penetration in the global LCV market to be 15.9% and forecast that the eLCV market will grow progressively at a CAGR of 28.2% between 2017 and 2025. China will clearly dominate, with an approximately 44% share of the global eLCV market by 2025, driven mainly by aggressive incentive structures for fully electric and fuel cell electric vehicles, technology readiness and the installation of recharging stations in large scale. Europe and Japan are expected to be the next largest markets for eLCVs after China, with more number of product line-ups planned by the native manufacturers. North America will follow suit with approximately a 6.4% market share.Electrification is poised to pick up pace in the short term with falling battery prices. As the demand for batteries increases, prices are expected to fall below the $100 per KWh by 2023 with high battery production capacities of 250+ GWh globally. With increasing battery availability and technology readiness, fully-electric vehicles will gain prominence and largely used across all regions by 2025. This trend will also be influenced by reducing vehicle purchase costs. Fuel cell technology will gain traction by 2020 due to advantages in packaging size and weight of the components. China, with a large number of fuel cell vehicles in the market by 2020, will be the frontrunner with approximately a 12.5% share of the total eLCV market. As the latest EV technologies are expected to satisfy market sentiments, huge investments from existing OEMs and start-ups are expected in the near term. However, electric trucks will have to prove their robustness and reliability in real-world commercial vehicle duty cycles in which diesel and gasoline powertrains have been tested and improved for over 100 years. The resulting analysis shows that sales of electric trucks will increase significantly post 2020, influenced by reducing battery costs, stringent emission regulations, broader incentive policies and developments in regards to the charging infrastructure. OEMs have announced firm production plans to manufacture electric trucks with range-extended powertrains for numerous commercial applications. Along with technology acquisition, intense competition is foreseen among manufacturers to gain market share. With the technology evolution, improving economics and policy changes across the globe, the market opportunity for electric LD trucks is forecast to reach 1.09 million units by 2025.
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