Global Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Growth Opportunities

Global Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Growth Opportunities

Rising Demand, Innovation, and Competition Accelerating Future Growth Potential of Electric Light Commercial Vehicles

RELEASE DATE
05-Oct-2021
REGION
Global
Research Code: MG42-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02230-GL-MT_25823
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Description

This Frost & Sullivan research service provides an overview of the electric light commercial vehicle (e-LCV) market in North America, Europe, China, and Asia-Pacific, presenting growth opportunities, comparisons between select models, sales percentage forecasts, and total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis. The e-LCV market across these regions is expected to reach 5.6 million units by 2030. Similarly, e-LCV penetration is forecast to be the highest in Europe at 40% followed by China at 35% by 2030. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are anticipated to dominate the overall electric market with a small fraction belonging to fuel cell electric vehicles, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are likely to be phased out by 2030.

China and North America are expected to contribute 69.6% to global e-LCV volumes collectively by 2030. Europe’s contribution is estimated to drop to 23.8% as North America overtakes Europe through aggressive volume growth. In the light commercial vehicle segment, North America and Europe show electrification potential for heavier vehicles (more than 3.5 tons) whereas China and Asia-Pacific lean toward lighter vehicles (less than 3.5 tons).

In North America, light commercial vehicles have higher daily mileage and are heavier and costlier. As such, e-LCVs in North America are expected to have significantly higher power output and battery capacity than those in other regions. Although e-LCVs in Europe are slightly heavier and priced higher, Europe, China, and Asia-Pacific share common vehicle specifications in terms of battery capacity, range, and power requirements. In terms of applications, the overall market’s primary focus is on parcel and delivery services. European manufacturers cover a broader range of applications with their existing e-LCVs, while their counterparts in North America plan to deploy vehicle electrification in slightly heavier applications, such as construction. Established original equipment manufacturers face increasing competition from new entrants that are pure play electric vehicle makers in specific applications.

BEVs provide greater TCO advantage in high mileage applications, achieving TCO parity faster with diesel-based vehicles than in low mileage applications. Moving forward, the TCO advantage is anticipated to drive BEV adoption and capture the market share predominantly held by diesel powertrain. Lower acquisition costs due to declining prices of key electric vehicle components will further accelerate BEV adoption.

Author: Marshall Martin

Table of Contents

Key Findings

e-LCV Penetration Forecast

e-LCV Market—Regional Contribution

Growth of e-LCV Adoption

Electrification Potential by Body Type

e-LCV Regional Focus—Select OEMs

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the e-LCV Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Scope of Analysis

Market Segmentation

e-LCV Ecosystem

Growth Drivers and Restraints

e-LCV Service Roadmap

e-LCV Technology Roadmap

Battery Chemistry—Technology Roadmap

Existing Battery Chemistry

Battery Chemistry Suppliers—OEM Mapping

Electric Motor Types

Electric Motor Placement

e-LCV Regional Benchmarking—Average Battery Capacity

e-LCV Regional Benchmarking—Average Range and Average Power

e-LCV Regional Benchmarking—Average GVWR and Average Price

Electrification Use Cases for e-LCVs

e-LCV Application Focus—Established OEMs

e-LCV Application Focus—Start-ups

EV Incentives

LCV Total Sales and Market Share of Major Participants

Sales Percentage by Powertrain Split

Anticipated e-LCV Launches

Anticipated e-LCV Launches (continued)

Select e-LCV Models—Specification Comparison

Select e-LCV Models—Price Range

LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast

LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast Discussion

Sales Percentage Forecast by Powertrain

EV Incentives

LCV Total Sales and Market Share of Major Participants

Sales Percentage by Powertrain Split

Existing and Anticipated e-LCV Models

Select e-LCV Models—Specification Comparison

Select e-LCV Models—Price Range

LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast

LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast Discussion

Sales Percentage Forecast by Powertrain

EV Incentives

LCV Total Sales and Market Share of Major Participants

Sales Percentage by Powertrain Split

Existing e-LCV Models

Existing e-LCV Models (continued)

e-LCV Models—Specification Comparison

e-LCV Models—Price Range

LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast

LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast Discussion

Sales Percentage Forecast by Powertrain

EV Incentives

LCV Total Sales and Market Share of Major Participants

Sales Percentage by Powertrain Split

Existing e-LCV Models

e-LCV Models—Specification Comparison

e-LCV Models—Price Range

LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast

LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast Discussion

Sales Percentage Forecast by Powertrain

TCO Analysis, Europe—Assumptions

TCO Analysis, Europe—Low Mileage

TCO Analysis, Europe—Medium Mileage

TCO Analysis, Europe—High Mileage

Growth Opportunity 1—Commonality in Product Requirements Across Europe, China, and APAC Decreases Costs

Growth Opportunity 1—Commonality in Product Requirements Across Europe, China, and APAC Decreases Costs (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2—Low Barriers to Entry for New Participants in the e-LCV Space

Growth Opportunity 2—Low Barriers to Entry for New Participants in the e-LCV Space (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3—Rising Electrification Potential in Previously Unattractive Heavy-duty Applications

Growth Opportunity 3—Rising Electrification Potential in Previously Unattractive Heavy-duty Applications (continued)

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

Related Research
This Frost & Sullivan research service provides an overview of the electric light commercial vehicle (e-LCV) market in North America, Europe, China, and Asia-Pacific, presenting growth opportunities, comparisons between select models, sales percentage forecasts, and total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis. The e-LCV market across these regions is expected to reach 5.6 million units by 2030. Similarly, e-LCV penetration is forecast to be the highest in Europe at 40% followed by China at 35% by 2030. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are anticipated to dominate the overall electric market with a small fraction belonging to fuel cell electric vehicles, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are likely to be phased out by 2030. China and North America are expected to contribute 69.6% to global e-LCV volumes collectively by 2030. Europe’s contribution is estimated to drop to 23.8% as North America overtakes Europe through aggressive volume growth. In the light commercial vehicle segment, North America and Europe show electrification potential for heavier vehicles (more than 3.5 tons) whereas China and Asia-Pacific lean toward lighter vehicles (less than 3.5 tons). In North America, light commercial vehicles have higher daily mileage and are heavier and costlier. As such, e-LCVs in North America are expected to have significantly higher power output and battery capacity than those in other regions. Although e-LCVs in Europe are slightly heavier and priced higher, Europe, China, and Asia-Pacific share common vehicle specifications in terms of battery capacity, range, and power requirements. In terms of applications, the overall market’s primary focus is on parcel and delivery services. European manufacturers cover a broader range of applications with their existing e-LCVs, while their counterparts in North America plan to deploy vehicle electrification in slightly heavier applications, such as construction. Established original equipment manufacturers face increasing competition from new entrants that are pure play electric vehicle makers in specific applications. BEVs provide greater TCO advantage in high mileage applications, achieving TCO parity faster with diesel-based vehicles than in low mileage applications. Moving forward, the TCO advantage is anticipated to drive BEV adoption and capture the market share predominantly held by diesel powertrain. Lower acquisition costs due to declining prices of key electric vehicle components will further accelerate BEV adoption. Author: Marshall Martin
More Information
Author Marshall Martin
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9882-A6
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Podcast No
WIP Number MG42-01-00-00-00