North American and European Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Drivetrain Growth Opportunities

North American and European Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Drivetrain Growth Opportunities

Advanced Platform Technology and Platform Sharing Across Body Styles to Ensure Future Growth Potential of Advanced Drivetrain Architectures

RELEASE DATE
14-Jun-2023
REGION
North America
Research Code: PEC0-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02554-NA-MT_27770
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Description

The elk industry in North America and Europe is expected to grow at a CAGR of 53.9% until 2030 to 3.5 million units, driven by strong government mandates and incentives, and improving TCO because of falling component prices. The initial phase of eLCVs will predominantly use eAxles, making up nearly three-fourths of the sales in 2022; however, this is expected to shrink to just more than half of sales by 2030 because of the growing preference for in-board drives. Electric pickups are likely to use in-board drive architecture, and with the North American LCV industry being predominantly pickup based, the overall penetration of in-board drive is expected to remain high even in the future. Being a van-dominant LCV market, eAxles are expected to be the major drivetrain option for vans; however, within eAxles, the penetration of eCarrier is likely to decline, when compared to eCrown, by 2030. In-board motors will remain the dominant drive architecture within pickups, whereas eAxles, especially eCrown, will be the dominant drive architecture in vans. Higher penetration of in-board motors in vans by 2030 is expected to be largely down to new electric start-ups, such as Canoo and Rivian, basing their vans on the same platform as the ones used for their respective pickups. Electric pickups are expected to hit the European market only after 2025 majorly from North American OEMs, in addition to VW’s Amarok electric. eAxles currently provide the best balance in terms of price, performance, and durability; however, in-board architecture offers the best performance in terms of efficiency and durability. Many heavy-duty applications are expected to employ in-board drive architecture that is placed close to the wheels to provide optimum torque transfer and high power output. As companies transform from older platforms and adopt newer pure electric platforms, the drive architecture preference is also expected to shift accordingly, to more powerful, efficient, and flexible architectures.

Author: Marshall Martin

Table of Contents

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Electric LCV Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

LCV Electrification Forecast

eLCV Drivetrain Architecture Market Size

eLCV Drivetrain Architecture Market Size, NA

eLCV Drivetrain Architecture Market Size, Europe

Drivetrain Architecture Share by Body Type

Drivetrain Architecture Share by Body Type, NA

Drivetrain Architecture Share by Body Type, Europe

Research Scope

Segmentation

Electric Drivetrain Architecture

Electric Drivetrain Architecture Benchmarking

eCarrier Architecture Overview

eCrown Architecture Overview

In-board Architecture Overview

Drivetrain Architecture Roadmap

Drivetrain Architecture and Application Mapping, NA & Europe, 2022

Drivetrain Architecture Mapping With Platform Preference, 2022

Dedicated eLCV Platforms and Drivetrain Architecture, NA & Europe, 2022

Anticipated e-LCV Launches, NA, 2022

Anticipated e-LCV Launches, Europe, 2022

EV Model Platforms and Drivetrain Architecture, NA & Europe, 2022

Drivetrain Architecture Share for Pickups

Drivetrain Architecture Share for Vans

Drivetrain Architecture Share for Pickups, NA

Drivetrain Architecture Share for Vans, NA

Drivetrain Architecture Share for Pickups, Europe

Drivetrain Architecture Share for Vans, Europe

Electric Drivetrain by Body Type Analysis

eAxle (eCarrier) Architecture Forecast

eAxle (eCrown) Architecture Forecast

In-board Architecture Forecast

Growth Outlook of Drivetrain Architecture

Electric Drivetrain Forecast Analysis

eAxle (eCrown) Architecture Forecast, NA

In-board Architecture Forecast, NA

Growth Outlook of Drivetrain Architecture, NA

Major Vehicle Models by Architecture Type, NA

Major Vehicle Models by Architecture Type, NA (continued)

eAxle Architecture Forecast, Europe

In-board Architecture Forecast, Europe

Growth Outlook of Drivetrain Architecture, Europe

Major Vehicle Models by Architecture Type, Europe

Major Vehicle Models by Architecture Type, Europe (continued)

Major Vehicle Models by Architecture Type, Europe (continued)

Growth Opportunity 1—Advanced Motor Architecture

Growth Opportunity 1—Advanced Motor Architecture (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2—Common Platforms

Growth Opportunity 2—Common Platforms (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3—Dedicated Electric Platform

Growth Opportunity 3—Dedicated Electric Platform (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

The eLCV Industry in North America and Europe is expected to grow at a CAGR of 53.9% until 2030 to 3.5 million units, driven by strong government mandates and incentives, and improving TCO because of falling component prices. The initial phase of eLCVs will predominantly use eAxles, making up nearly three-fourths of the sales in 2022; however, this is expected to shrink to just more than half of sales by 2030 because of the growing preference for in-board drives. Electric pickups are likely to use in-board drive architecture, and with the North American LCV industry being predominantly pickup based, the overall penetration of in-board drive is expected to remain high even in the future. Being a van-dominant LCV market, eAxles are expected to be the major drivetrain option for vans; however, within eAxles, the penetration of eCarrier is likely to decline, when compared to eCrown, by 2030. In-board motors will remain the dominant drive architecture within pickups, whereas eAxles, especially eCrown, will be the dominant drive architecture in vans. Higher penetration of in-board motors in vans by 2030 is expected to be largely down to new electric start-ups, such as Canoo and Rivian, basing their vans on the same platform as the ones used for their respective pickups. Electric pickups are expected to hit the European market only after 2025 majorly from North American OEMs, in addition to VW’s Amarok electric. eAxles currently provide the best balance in terms of price, performance, and durability; however, in-board architecture offers the best performance in terms of efficiency and durability. Many heavy-duty applications are expected to employ in-board drive architecture that is placed close to the wheels to provide optimum torque transfer and high power output. As companies transform from older platforms and adopt newer pure electric platforms, the drive architecture preference is also expected to shift accordingly, to more powerful, efficient, and flexible architectures. Author: Marshall Martin
More Information
Author Marshall Martin
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Keyword 1 LCV Industry
Keyword 2 ELK Industry
Keyword 3 Electric Vehicle Opportunities
Podcast No
WIP Number PEC0-01-00-00-00