Global Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Outlook 2023

Global Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Outlook 2023

Growth Regions China and India Drive Truck Demand Amid Continued Market Uncertainties

RELEASE DATE
17-May-2023
REGION
North America
Deliverable Type
Market Outlook
Research Code: PE57-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02539-NA-MO_27682
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Description

In this report, Frost & Sullivan studies the light commercial vehicle (LCV) and medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) truck segments for six regions: North America, Europe, China, India, Latin America, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The study period is 2022–2023, with 2022 as the base year and 2023 as the forecast year.

We segment the market by gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR); LCVs have a GVWR lower than 6 tons, while M&HD trucks have a GVWR equal to or above 6 tons. The subsegments in LCVs are pickups, vans, and cab-over-engine trucks. M&HD trucks comprise MD and HD trucks. The powertrain types include diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and electric vehicles (EVs).

Our analysis shows that the war in Ukraine had a cascading effect on multiple sectors of the global economy, with the overall business sentiment taking a huge hit. Supply chain constraints due to the war took inflation to unprecedented levels globally, prompting many central banks to increase interest rates. This increased the financing cost to purchase new equipment. Volatile energy markets resulted in a sharp rise in fuel prices, which ate into the profit margins of fleet operators. The truck market in Europe contracted by 18.3% in 2022. The truck market in China plummeted in 2022, contracting by over 50% due to the re-emergence of COVID-19 in most of the country, which led to lockdowns and tight curfew controls.

However, not all developments in 2022 were adverse. Established as well as new and upcoming original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the space launched several electric truck models. Tesla delivered its first semi-tractor trucks in December 2022, starting with Pepsi. The EV ecosystem dynamics rose to a different level, with companies from diverse backgrounds coming together, resulting in partnerships between OEMs, energy companies, and charging providers. Newer business models such as truck-as-a-service (TaaS) are gaining traction thanks to Volta Trucks, Quantron, and Nikola.

Frost & Sullivan expects economic challenges faced in 2022 to continue in 2023 as the situation has remained largely the same, especially with regard to the war. We anticipate rising fears of a recession in North America to make businesses and fleets more cautious about new purchases and investments. The market situation in Europe is still uncertain due to the status of the war, with little indication of its development. However, China and India will be the bright spots for the trucking industry in 2023, with improving macro indicators and demand from growing infrastructure activity.

The report offers stakeholders insights into the commercial vehicles market using the following:
• Recaps of 2022 and predictions for 2023
• Notable regulations and trends by region
• Global economic outlook
• LCV and M&HD segments outlook through sales, OEMs, powertrain technology, and product launches
• Analysis by region
• Growth opportunities

Key Issues Addressed

  • Trends impacting the global truck industry?
  • The size of the global truck industry in 2022, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
  • Expected volume growth in 2023 and drivers in different regions?
  • Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
  • Top OEM performers in 2022 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?

Author: Marshall Martin

Table of Contents

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Truck Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Key Findings: A Recap of 2022

Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2023

Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot

LCV Market

M&HD Truck Market

Research Scope

Market Segmentation

Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2022

Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2023

Global GDP Growth Expectations

Recessionary/Slowdown Expectations for Major Economies

Global GDP Growth Snapshot

Advanced Economy Predictions for 2023

Emerging Economy Predictions for 2023

2023 Regional Risks and Policy Direction

2023 Top Growth Opportunities by Region

Global Commercial Vehicle Market: Top Trends

Impact of Trends by Region

Trend 1: Fleets Moving to Zero-emission Vehicles

Trend 2: EV-centric Fleet Management Solutions

Trend 3: M&As Drive Charging Infrastructure

Trend 4: TaaS Adoption

Trend 5: Emergence of Fuel Cell-powered CVs

Market Forecast

Market Forecast by Region and Category

LCV OEM Sales Performance

Powertrain Technology Forecast

Key OEMs’ Anticipated eLCV Launches

Market Forecast

Market Forecast by Region and Category

M&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance

Powertrain Technology Forecast

Key OEMs’ Anticipated eM&HD Truck Launches

Regional Analysis: North America

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America

Regional Analysis: Europe

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: Europe

Regional Analysis: China

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: China

Regional Analysis: India

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: India

Regional Analysis: Latin America

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: Latin America

Regional Analysis: ASEAN

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: ASEAN

Connectivity

Electrification

Aftermarket

Autonomous L4

Progress in Key Areas

Growth Opportunity 1: Electric Charging Infrastructure

Growth Opportunity 1: Electric Charging Infrastructure (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ecosystem

Growth Opportunity 2: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ecosystem (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Truck-as-a-Service

Growth Opportunity 3: Truck-as-a-Service (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

In this report, Frost & Sullivan studies the light commercial vehicle (LCV) and medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) truck segments for six regions: North America, Europe, China, India, Latin America, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The study period is 2022–2023, with 2022 as the base year and 2023 as the forecast year. We segment the market by gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR); LCVs have a GVWR lower than 6 tons, while M&HD trucks have a GVWR equal to or above 6 tons. The subsegments in LCVs are pickups, vans, and cab-over-engine trucks. M&HD trucks comprise MD and HD trucks. The powertrain types include diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and electric vehicles (EVs). Our analysis shows that the war in Ukraine had a cascading effect on multiple sectors of the global economy, with the overall business sentiment taking a huge hit. Supply chain constraints due to the war took inflation to unprecedented levels globally, prompting many central banks to increase interest rates. This increased the financing cost to purchase new equipment. Volatile energy markets resulted in a sharp rise in fuel prices, which ate into the profit margins of fleet operators. The truck market in Europe contracted by 18.3% in 2022. The truck market in China plummeted in 2022, contracting by over 50% due to the re-emergence of COVID-19 in most of the country, which led to lockdowns and tight curfew controls. However, not all developments in 2022 were adverse. Established as well as new and upcoming original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the space launched several electric truck models. Tesla delivered its first semi-tractor trucks in December 2022, starting with Pepsi. The EV ecosystem dynamics rose to a different level, with companies from diverse backgrounds coming together, resulting in partnerships between OEMs, energy companies, and charging providers. Newer business models such as truck-as-a-service (TaaS) are gaining traction thanks to Volta Trucks, Quantron, and Nikola. Frost & Sullivan expects economic challenges faced in 2022 to continue in 2023 as the situation has remained largely the same, especially with regard to the war. We anticipate rising fears of a recession in North America to make businesses and fleets more cautious about new purchases and investments. The market situation in Europe is still uncertain due to the status of the war, with little indication of its development. However, China and India will be the bright spots for the trucking industry in 2023, with improving macro indicators and demand from growing infrastructure activity. The report offers stakeholders insights into the commercial vehicles market using the following: • Recaps of 2022 and predictions for 2023 • Notable regulations and trends by region • Global economic outlook • LCV and M&HD segments outlook through sales, OEMs, powertrain technology, and product launches • Analysis by region • Growth opportunities--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • Trends impacting the global truck industry
  • The size of the global truck industry in 2022, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions
  • Expected volume growth in 2023 and drivers in different regions
  • Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions
  • Top OEM performers in 2022 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions

Author: Marshall Martin

More Information
Deliverable Type Market Outlook
Author Marshall Martin
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Keyword 1 Commercial Vehicle Forecast
Keyword 2 Automotive Forecast
Keyword 3 Medium And Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicles market
Podcast No
WIP Number PE57-01-00-00-00