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Global Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Outlook, 2024
Global Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Outlook, 2024
Strong Sales in China to Compensate for Decline in Truck Market in North America and Europe
31-May-2024
Global
Market Outlook
Description
Both China and Europe experienced significant growth in LCV and M&HD truck sales in 2023, mainly driven by a low base affect. Other emerging markets faced a challenging year, with India and ASEAN specifically contracting in LCV sales and with LATAM’s M&HD truck sales declining substantially in 2023. After a difficult 2022, Chinese OEMs reemerged in 2023 with a boost in domestic sales and a growing footprint outside of China, especially in the LATAM and ASEAN markets, displacing incumbent European and Japanese OEMs. Chinese OEMs contributed to nearly one-third of global truck sales in 2023, a substantial increase from one-fourth of sales the previous year.
The growing proliferation of EV technology globally will drive the CV industry toward a higher level of modularity and platformization across vehicle segments, weight classes, and geographies, to offer common benefits and cut costs. Recent cutbacks in EV investments because of lower consumer interest and higher raw material prices can prove to be a boost to alternate ICE vehicles with lower price premiums that customers can more readily adopt in the short-to-medium term.
Economic growth in 2024 is expected to be slower than in 2023, with high interest rates and rising inflation continuing to be a challenge, certainly in the first half of the year. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, in addition to state elections in several countries, only add to the uncertainties and unpredictability of the year ahead. Advanced markets, such as North America and Europe, are expected to experience a significant decline in truck sales in 2024 because of excess capacity and an underwhelming freight situation. Emerging markets, such as ASEAN and LATAM, are expected to bounce back strongly on the back of stronger macros after a weak 2023.
Key Issues Addressed
- Trends impacting the global truck industry?
- The size of the global truck industry in 2023, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
- Expected volume growth in 2024 and drivers in different regions?
- Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
- Top OEM performers in 2023 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?
Author: Marshall Martin
Table of Contents
Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Truck Industry
Key Findings—A Recap of 2023
Key Findings—Top 5 Predictions for 2024
Notable Regulations and Mandates—A Snapshot
Major Trends in the LCV Market
LCV Market
Major Trends in the M&HD Truck Market
M&HD Truck Market
Research Scope
Market Segmentation
Top 10 Trends for 2024
Top 10 Growth Opportunities
Global GDP Growth—Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Markets Lose Growth Momentum
Inflation and Interest Rates—Headline Inflation Continuing to Decline; H2 2024 Shifting toward Rate Cuts for Developed Markets
Currency Trajectory—Dollar to Remain Strong in H1 2024; EM Currencies to Get a Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
Oil Markets—Q1 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; Non-OPEC Production to Rise
Labor Market—Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
Critical Minerals Supplies—Need for Economic Resiliency to Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
North America—Economic Slowdown amid Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
Western Europe—Moderate Growth Pickup as Inflation Headwinds Ease; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to Take Precedence
The Middle East—Non-oil Growth from Economic Diversification Limiting the Pullback from a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets
ASIA—EMs to Drive Growth Momentum; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery
Market Forecast
Market Forecast by Region and Category
LCV OEM Sales Performance
Powertrain Technology Forecast
Key OEMs’ Anticipated eLCV Launches
Market Forecast
Market Forecast by Region and Category
M&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
Powertrain Technology Forecast
Key OEMs’ Anticipated eM&HD Truck Launches
Market Since COVID—North America
Market Outlook and Top Participants—North America
Market Volume and Powertrain Split—North America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms—North America
Market Since COVID—Europe
Market Outlook and Top Participants—Europe
Market Volume and Powertrain Split—Europe
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms—Europe
Market Since COVID—China
Market Outlook and Top Participants—China
Market Volume and Powertrain Split—China
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms—China
Market Since COVID—India
Market Outlook and Top Participants—India
Market Volume and Powertrain Split—India
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms—India
Market Since COVID—LATAM
Market Outlook and Top Participants—LATAM
Market Volume and Powertrain Split—LATAM
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms—LATAM
Market Since COVID—ASEAN
Market Outlook and Top Participants—ASEAN
Market Volume and Powertrain Split—ASEAN
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms—ASEAN
Growth Opportunity 1—Modularity in EV Platforms
Growth Opportunity 1—Modularity in EV Platforms (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—Alternate ICE Systems
Growth Opportunity 2—Alternate ICE Systems (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3—Realignment of Global Supply Chains
Growth Opportunity 3—Realignment of Global Supply Chains (continued)
Best Practices Recognition
Frost Radar
Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
Next Steps
Take the Next Step
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
Legal Disclaimer
Popular Topics
Key Issues Addressed
- Trends impacting the global truck industry?
- The size of the global truck industry in 2023, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
- Expected volume growth in 2024 and drivers in different regions?
- Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
- Top OEM performers in 2023 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?
Author: Marshall Martin
| Deliverable Type | Market Outlook |
|---|---|
| Author | Marshall Martin |
| Industries | Automotive |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | PFI3-01-00-00-00 |