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Sales Volume of Passenger Vehicles, Commercial Vehicles, and Buses and Minibuses to Reach 2.61 Million Units by 2022
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The Iranian passenger vehicles (PV) market is projected to grow, recording a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% during 2016–2022 with the potential lifting of sanctions and the entry of foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers. By 2022, the B segment, with a 46% market share, will be most preferred segment cannibalising on the D segment for its value-added features. The B and D segments are dominated predominantly by Iranian OEMs and locally built cars, whilst the premium segments include foreign participants. The Iranian government has introduced strong initiatives to cut emissions and modernise the car parc, which provides strong opportunities for local production. Iran disposed of about 320,000 ‘end of life’ PVs as part of its scrappage programme in 2015 to reduce pollution and fuel consumption. The country plans to decrease the average passenger parc age to 20 years by the end of 2020 and to 15 years by the end of 2025. IKCO and SAIPA have a dominant position in the PV parc. The Light Duty Truck (LDT) market is fragmented amongst three state-controlled OEMs that operate across all segments. IKCO and SAIPA have more than 90% market share in the LDT segment. The domination of pickups and vans in the LDT segment will be challenged with the increasing penetration of COE trucks from Japanese brands. In the Medium and Heavy Duty Truck (M&HDT) segment, Bahman and SAIPA have a share of more than 70%. Iranian government initiatives towards the opening up of the mining sector for foreign investors will drive the demand for commercial vehicles in the mining and construction segment. Foreign brands such as Dongfeng, IVECO, and Volvo dominate the HDT segment due to the higher tonnage and power requirements. Local brands are preferred for distributing lighter materials. Due to its strategic location, Iran has the potential for accounting for a substantial share of international transit trade with the development of proper infrastructure. According to the 6th Development Plan, the country aims to construct over 1,500 km of free highways. At present, Iran has over 2,400 km of freeways, which are expected to increase to over 4,000 km by the end of 2020. Additionally, the country seeks to support knowledge-oriented enterprises for new and advanced technology development. The aim is to achieve a 4% research and development (R&D) contribution to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The government plans to encourage producers to allocate 25% of their revenues to R&D activities in future. Foreigners will receive extra tax exemption if they can export 30–40% of their products out of Iran. Iran’s seven free trade zones (FTZs) are placed at strategic geographical locations to act as hubs for imports and exports. Special bylaws regulate import, export, investment, banking, and labour laws.
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