Macroeconomic Prospects of Select Latin American and Caribbean Countries, Forecast to 2026

Macroeconomic Prospects of Select Latin American and Caribbean Countries, Forecast to 2026

Panama and the Dominican Republic to Achieve Robust GDP Growth Levels by 2024

RELEASE DATE
18-Nov-2019
REGION
Latin America
Research Code: 9AE6-00-08-00-00
SKU: CI00658-LA-MR_23775

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Description

This research delves into the macroeconomic outlook for Latin American and Caribbean countries with respect to the political environment, GDP growth, inflation and interest rates, income levels, labor market, and population. The countries analyzed as a part this research include Puerto Rico, Panama, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala. The study period for this research is 2015 to 2026, with estimates for 2019, and forecasts from 2020 to 2026.

With regard to the political situation, new president was sworn in in Panama in July 2019, with policy priorities being fighting corruption and stronger ties with the US. Several locations in Jamaica have been subject to a state of emergency in the last few months due to high crime rates. Costa Rica recently, finally, saw the passage of a fiscal reform package, following nearly a 2-decade gridlock. The fiscal reform includes tax hikes and public spending cuts, which stand to restrain short-term GDP growth, but put Costa Rica on a more sustainable growth path.

In terms of GDP growth levels, Puerto has been in recession since 2005, with the country expected to emerge from recession only by around 2024. The damaged caused by Hurricane Maria from 2017 has been a key factor weighing the economy down, and the country has been struggling with a debt crisis even before the hurricane hit it. Panama and the Dominican Republic are the bright spots in the region, with expected GDP growth levels of nearly 5%. Panama has, in fact, displayed robust growth levels for years together now, supported by factors such as high investments and the expansion of the Panama Canal. The Dominican Republic appears to have recovered from the growth slump in 2017 on account of weather-related factors, with a strong growth of 7% registered in 2018. Trinidad and Tobago has emerged from its recessionary conditions, with energy-led recovery and economic diversification efforts to help support growth acceleration between 2019 and 2026.

With interest rates in Panama and Puerto Rico being closely linked to the US, these countries are expected to see interest rate cuts going forward, given the rate cuts in the US. Jamaica and Costa Rica are also expected see rate cuts, thereby, leading to lesser borrowing costs in these countries. In terms of the population growth outlook, all countries are experiencing a decline in the rate of their population growth. Puerto Rico is, in fact, experiencing a decline in its population size, with recessionary conditions and US citizenship of Puerto Ricans continuing to contribute to migration and population decline in the next few years.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the political outlook for these countries?
  • What are the major political developments that companies should be cognizant of?
  • What are the key drivers and restraints shaping the GDP growth outlook?
  • What is the 7-year GDP growth forecast for these countries?
  • What is the income outlook for the countries in focus?
  • What is the outlook for the labor force and unemployment rate?
  • What is the outlook for population and population growth?
  • How are the population shares of the working age, elderly, and children expected to evolve?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

Table of Contents

Puerto Rico—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways

Puerto Rico—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways (continued)

Panama—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways

Panama—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways (continued)

Jamaica—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways

Jamaica—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways (continued)

Trinidad and Tobago—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways

Trinidad and Tobago—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways (continued)

Costa Rica—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways

Costa Rica—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways (continued)

Dominican Republic—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways

Dominican Republic—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways (continued)

Guatemala—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways

Guatemala—Macroeconomic Key Takeaways (continued)

Research Scope

Puerto Rico—Political Analysis

Puerto Rico—GDP Growth Outlook

Puerto Rico—Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

Puerto Rico—Income Outlook

Puerto Rico—Labor Market Outlook

Puerto Rico—Population Outlook

Panama—Political Analysis

Panama—GDP Growth Outlook

Panama—Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

Panama—Income Outlook

Panama—Labor Market Outlook

Panama—Population Outlook

Jamaica—Political Analysis

Jamaica—GDP Growth Outlook

Jamaica—Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

Jamaica—Income Outlook

Jamaica—Labor Market Outlook

Jamaica—Population Outlook

Trinidad and Tobago—Political Analysis

Trinidad and Tobago—GDP Growth Outlook

Trinidad and Tobago—Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

Trinidad and Tobago—Income Outlook

Trinidad and Tobago—Labor Market Outlook

Trinidad and Tobago—Population Outlook

Costa Rica—Political Analysis

Costa Rica—GDP Growth Outlook

Costa Rica—Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

Costa Rica—Income Outlook

Costa Rica—Labor Market Outlook

Costa Rica—Population Outlook

Dominican Republic—Political Analysis

Dominican Republic—GDP Growth Outlook

Dominican Republic—Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

Dominican Republic—Income Outlook

Dominican Republic—Labor Market Outlook

Dominican Republic—Population Outlook

Guatemala—Political Analysis

Guatemala—GDP Growth Outlook

Guatemala—Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

Guatemala—Income Outlook

Guatemala—Labor Market Outlook

Guatemala—Population Outlook

Key Conclusions

Legal Disclaimer

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

The Frost & Sullivan Story

Value Proposition—Future of Your Company & Career

Global Perspective

Industry Convergence

360º Research Perspective

Implementation Excellence

Our Blue Ocean Strategy

Related Research
This research delves into the macroeconomic outlook for Latin American and Caribbean countries with respect to the political environment, GDP growth, inflation and interest rates, income levels, labor market, and population. The countries analyzed as a part this research include Puerto Rico, Panama, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala. The study period for this research is 2015 to 2026, with estimates for 2019, and forecasts from 2020 to 2026. With regard to the political situation, new president was sworn in in Panama in July 2019, with policy priorities being fighting corruption and stronger ties with the US. Several locations in Jamaica have been subject to a state of emergency in the last few months due to high crime rates. Costa Rica recently, finally, saw the passage of a fiscal reform package, following nearly a 2-decade gridlock. The fiscal reform includes tax hikes and public spending cuts, which stand to restrain short-term GDP growth, but put Costa Rica on a more sustainable growth path. In terms of GDP growth levels, Puerto has been in recession since 2005, with the country expected to emerge from recession only by around 2024. The damaged caused by Hurricane Maria from 2017 has been a key factor weighing the economy down, and the country has been struggling with a debt crisis even before the hurricane hit it. Panama and the Dominican Republic are the bright spots in the region, with expected GDP growth levels of nearly 5%. Panama has, in fact, displayed robust growth levels for years together now, supported by factors such as high investments and the expansion of the Panama Canal. The Dominican Republic appears to have recovered from the growth slump in 2017 on account of weather-related factors, with a strong growth of 7% registered in 2018. Trinidad and Tobago has emerged from its recessionary conditions, with energy-led recovery and economic diversification efforts to help support growth acceleration between 2019 and 2026. With interest rates in Panama and Puerto Rico being closely linked to the US, these countries are expected to see interest rate cuts going forward, given the rate cuts in the US. Jamaica and Costa Rica are also expected see rate cuts, thereby, leading to lesser borrowing costs in these countries. In terms of the population growth outlook, all countries are experiencing a decline in the rate of their population growth. Puerto Rico is, in fact, experiencing a decline in its population size, with recessionary conditions and US citizenship of Puerto Ricans continuing to contribute to migration and population decline in the next few years.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the political outlook for these countries?
  • What are the major political developments that companies should be cognizant of?
  • What are the key drivers and restraints shaping the GDP growth outlook?
  • What is the 7-year GDP growth forecast for these countries?
  • What is the income outlook for the countries in focus?
  • What is the outlook for the labor force and unemployment rate?
  • What is the outlook for population and population growth?
  • How are the population shares of the working age, elderly, and children expected to evolve?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Neha Anna Thomas
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number 9AE6-00-08-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9A08