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Novel coronavirus charts out a new vector for the commercial aerospace industry; new destinations define new opportunities
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The COVID-19 pandemic has swept the globe, impacting every industry in every country. Few other industries have been disrupted to the magnitude that the global commercial aerospace market has. The current situation dwarfs the turmoil of 2019 as the Boeing 737 MAX grounding saga dragged on. 2020 was going to be a year of reconfiguration that would affect Boeing alone’ however, it has now turned into a year of survival for the whole aerospace industry. Not a segment of the commercial aerospace industry is immune to this misfortune even as the global aerospace community navigates the turbulent wake of the pandemic. The initial impact on the market landscape was a drop in passenger demand for commercial aircraft travel down to nothing in the first half of 2020. This alarming statistic has resulted in quick actions—from airlines to ground fleets, to executives who can incorporate cash generation and savings activities in all segments, and to governments that can step in with bail-outs. In addition, to ensure the safety of employees, manufacturers temporarily stopped production. This analysis provides updates to the 2020 outlook of the commercial aircraft market focusing on original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), the supply chain, and aftermarket suppliers. Short-term, medium-term, and long-term effects are evaluated for multiple segments. Aircraft leasing companies are among the hardest hit for all three time periods.Challenges provide opportunities. This special study identifies growth opportunities directly related to the current disrupting crisis for aerospace segments.This outlook updates 2020 projections for deliveries and tallies up the scorecard from 2019. A conservative scenario forecast and an aspirational scenario forecast, based on market revenues, will be laid out with a discussion on the contributing factors in the post-COVID-19 environment.
Key Issues Addressed
Author: Timothy Kuder
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