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Expect Mild Slowdown as Sustainability, Multipolarity, Digitalization, and Fiscal Prudence Take Center Stage
07-Feb-2024
Global
Market Research
PFCE-01-00-00-00
CI_2024_570
Despite the global economy outperforming expectations and avoiding a recession in 2023, Frost & Sullivan expects a mild growth slowdown in 2024 as tight monetary conditions, diminishing consumer confidence, weak trade prospects, and subdued housing markets in key regions weigh on momentum.
However, with policymakers managing to put inflation on a more controlled path in 2023, the narrative in 2024 will start to shift toward the reversal of synchronized rate hikes and the revival of growth and investment, particularly in advanced economies. Even as countries continue to face a volatile geopolitical environment and persistent regional divergences in 2024, it will be equally important for organizations to prepare for the tailwinds that will emerge from a pullback in interest rate hikes, receding price pressures, and steady policy support for growth industries such as transport and infrastructure, green energy, semiconductors, and automotive.
This 2024 macroeconomic thought leadership provides key insights on global and regional economic scenarios through growth trajectory analysis and regional comparisons. It provides foresight for businesses and policymakers on top global predictions covering commodity prices, labor markets, critical minerals supply chains, and the global interest rate environment.
Based on an in-depth analysis of megatrends and regional policy outlook, Frost & Sullivan has detailed key macroeconomic growth opportunities for businesses in 2024. This deliverable defines the context of these opportunities and provides a detailed analysis of them that organizations should leverage to achieve resilient growth.
Research Highlights
Key Topics Covered:
- 2024 GDP Growth Predictions for the Global Economy and Key Advanced and Emerging Economies
- Top Global Predictions for 2024
- Top Regional Predictions for 2024
- Global Economic Visioning Scenarios
- Emerging Macroeconomic Growth Opportunities
Author: Rituparna Majumder
Strategic Imperatives
Top 10 Growth Opportunities
Top 10 Trends for 2024
Trend 1: Global GDP Growth Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3.0% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Economies Lose Momentum
Growth Opportunity 1: Global GDP GrowthIndia and ASEAN to Remain Hotbeds for Expansion with Relatively High GDP Growth
Trend 2: Inflation and Interest RatesHeadline Inflation to Continue Decline; H2 2024 to Shift Toward Rate Cuts for Advanced Economies
Growth Opportunity 2: Inflation and Interest Rates Combination of Falling Inflation and Rate Cuts Under Baseline Scenario to Drive Discretionary Expenses
Trend 3: Currency TrajectoryRate Cuts to Cap Upside Dollar Gains in H2; Weak Regional Growth to Weigh on EUR; EM Currencies to Get Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
Growth Opportunity 3: Currency TrajectoryStrong Dollar in H1 2024 to Boost US Travel; Weaker Emerging Market Currencies to Benefit Exporters in H2
Trend 4: Labor MarketModerate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations Over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
Growth Opportunity 4: Labor MarketCross-country Migration to Create Vocational Skill Development Opportunities; Gig Marketplace to Gain Prominence
Trend 5: Oil MarketsQ1 2024 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; Brent Prices to Average $83–$85/Barrel
Growth Opportunity 5: Oil MarketsGCC Oil Production Cuts to Spur Non-oil Diversification Movement
Trend 6: Critical Minerals SuppliesNeed for Economic Resiliency to Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships within Critical Minerals Supply Chains
Growth Opportunity 6: Critical Minerals SuppliesElectric Mobility, Semiconductors, and Green Industries to be Key Benefactors of a Growing Critical Minerals Market
Trend 7: North AmericaEconomic Slowdown Amidst Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates in North America
Growth Opportunity 7: North AmericaFiscal Support in the US to Provide Sizable Investment Opportunities in Manufacturing and Infrastructure
Trend 8: Western EuropeModerate Growth Pick-up in Western Europe as Inflation Headwinds Ease Gradually; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to take Precedence
Growth Opportunity 8: Western Europe Services-led Economic Recovery to Bolster Opportunities in Healthcare, Green Energy, and Tourism in Western Europe
Trend 9: The Middle EastNon-oil Growth Driven by Economic Diversification to Limit the Pullback Caused by a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets within the Middle East
Growth Opportunity 9: The Middle EastStabilizing Credit Conditions and Inflation to Support Investment Inflows Across the Middle East
Trend 10: AsiaEmerging Economies to Drive Growth Momentum in Asia; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery
Growth Opportunity 10: AsiaBuilding of Multi-industry Manufacturing Capabilities to Bolster Export Potential and Lead to Sustained Economic Momentum in Asia
List of Countries and Territories, 2024
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Research Highlights
Key Topics Covered:
- 2024 GDP Growth Predictions for the Global Economy and Key Advanced and Emerging Economies
- Top Global Predictions for 2024
- Top Regional Predictions for 2024
- Global Economic Visioning Scenarios
- Emerging Macroeconomic Growth Opportunities
Author: Rituparna Majumder
| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| Author | Rituparna Majumder |
| Industries | Cross Industries |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Keyword 1 | world economic outlook |
| Keyword 2 | economic outlook |
| Keyword 3 | economic growth |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | PFCE-01-00-00-00 |
Top 10 Growth Opportunities in the Global Economy, 2024
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