ASEAN Automotive Outlook, 2021

ASEAN Automotive Outlook, 2021

Competitive Intensity is Concentrated in Low-cost Green Cars and Electric Vehicles; Political Stability will Affect the Automotive

RELEASE DATE
27-Aug-2021
REGION
Asia Pacific
Research Code: PB88-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02217-AP-MO_25728
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Description

In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) automotive market experienced a significant sales decline of 28.5%, from a total sales of 3.5 million units in 2019 to 2.5 million units in 2020. Passenger Vehicles (PVs) constituted 63.9% of the market and Commercial Vehicles (CV) accounted for 36.1%. Of these, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia contributed a joint market share of 74.9%. Thailand surpassed Indonesia, and led the market in 2020.

Especially in 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the automotive market’s activities due to implementation of social distancing, reduction of retail operations, and production closures. The impact is expected to be significant in terms of a weaker Gross Domestic Product (GDP), lower utilization of vehicles, and lesser automotive purchase attractiveness in the short term.

Increase in government spending (including fiscal injections, infrastructure development, individual financial aid, and tax exemption) in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia in 2021 is likely to accelerate the economic activity in these countries. In addition, the progress of vaccination is one of the critical factors that have a significant relationship with GDP recovery and outbreak control. However, political uncertainties, such as the suspension of the Malaysian Parliament and the extension of the state of emergency in Thailand are affecting the country’s development.

Japanese automotive brands lead the ASEAN market. Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, and Isuzu are the key contributors in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. In particular, Isuzu D-Max and Toyota Hilux are the key contributors in the Commercial Vehicle (CV) segment in Thailand and Malaysia. In Malaysia, Proton grew significantly in 2020, an increase of 4.4% Year-over-year (YoY).

The trend of Low-cost Green Car (LCGC) and Electric Vehicle (EV) development will penetrate further in ASEAN. For example, Thailand aims to become an EV hub by 2025. Thailand’s National EV Roadmap targets for xEV production to reach 30% of total production in 2030. Similarly, the Indonesian Government promotes LCGCs and offers income tax incentives (up to 20 years of full corporate tax exemption) are likely to bring production attractiveness to the automotive market.

This study assesses the automotive market in key ASEAN countries, with focus on Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It provides the automotive market snapshot in these 3 ASEAN countries. Each country snapshot covers the Total Industry Volume (TIV), in the historical period (2016–2020) and the forecast period (2021–2025). This research includes segmentation breakdown in 2020, such as vehicle segment, key Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and market share. In addition, it highlights 5 key trends and overall impact levels that will influence the automotive market in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia in 2021, respectively.

Author: Ming Lih Chan

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

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Table of Contents

Key Findings

Total Industry Volume (TIV) in Key ASEAN Markets

Top Trends for 2021

Automotive Outlook in ASEAN—Overview

Market Segmentation

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on ASEAN’s Automotive Market

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

COVID-19 Impact on World GDP Growth

Global Growth Scenario Analysis—Assumptions

World GDP Growth Under Differing Scenarios

COVID-19 Impact on Key Regions

ASEAN—An Overview

TIV in Key ASEAN Markets

ASEAN TIV—Market Snapshot

Position of ASEAN Countries on the Growth Potential Curve

Motorization in ASEAN

Emission Regulations in ASEAN

Key Growth Metrics

Total Industry Volume by Vehicle Segment

Percent of TIV by Vehicle Segment in 2020

Market Share Analysis

Key Market Trends Anticipated in Thailand in 2021

Trend 1—COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Certain Areas

Trend 2—GDP Recovery and Tourism Industry

Trend 3—National Electric Vehicle Industry Development Roadmap

Trend 4—Political Uncertainty and State of Emergency Extension

Trend 5—Increase in Government Spending and Financial Aid

TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis

Key Conclusions

Key Growth Metrics

Total Industry Volume by Vehicle Segment

Percent of TIV by Vehicle Segment

Market Share Analysis

Key Market Trends Anticipated in Indonesia in 2021

Trend 1—COVID-19 Pandemic and Vaccination Progress

Trend 2—GDP Recovery

Trend 3—National Automotive Industry Development Roadmap

Trend 4—Development and Promotion of Low-cost Green Cars

Trend 5—Increase in Government Spending and Infrastructure Development

TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis

Key Conclusions

Key Growth Metrics

Total Industry Volume by Vehicle Segment

Percent of TIV by Vehicle Segment

Market Share Analysis

Key Market Trends Anticipated in Malaysia in 2021

Trend 1—COVID-19 Pandemic and National Lockdown

Trend 2—GDP Recovery and Vaccination Progress

Trend 3—Political Uncertainty and Suspended Parliament

Trend 4—Increase in Government Spending and Tax Exemption

Trend 5—New Model Launches

TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis

Key Conclusions

Growth Opportunity 1: Continued Market Development for Improving Thailand’s Automotive Sales, 2020

Growth Opportunity 1: Continued Market Development for Improving Thailand’s Automotive Sales, 2020 (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Continued Market Development for Improving Indonesia’s Automotive Sales, 2020

Growth Opportunity 2: Continued Market Development for Improving Indonesia’s Automotive Sales, 2020 (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Continued Market Development for Improving Malaysia’s Automotive Sales, 2020

Growth Opportunity 3: Continued Market Development for Improving Malaysia’s Automotive Sales, 2020 (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

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Legal Disclaimer

Table of Acronyms Used

Related Research
In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) automotive market experienced a significant sales decline of 28.5%, from a total sales of 3.5 million units in 2019 to 2.5 million units in 2020. Passenger Vehicles (PVs) constituted 63.9% of the market and Commercial Vehicles (CV) accounted for 36.1%. Of these, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia contributed a joint market share of 74.9%. Thailand surpassed Indonesia, and led the market in 2020. Especially in 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the automotive market’s activities due to implementation of social distancing, reduction of retail operations, and production closures. The impact is expected to be significant in terms of a weaker Gross Domestic Product (GDP), lower utilization of vehicles, and lesser automotive purchase attractiveness in the short term. Increase in government spending (including fiscal injections, infrastructure development, individual financial aid, and tax exemption) in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia in 2021 is likely to accelerate the economic activity in these countries. In addition, the progress of vaccination is one of the critical factors that have a significant relationship with GDP recovery and outbreak control. However, political uncertainties, such as the suspension of the Malaysian Parliament and the extension of the state of emergency in Thailand are affecting the country’s development. Japanese automotive brands lead the ASEAN market. Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, and Isuzu are the key contributors in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. In particular, Isuzu D-Max and Toyota Hilux are the key contributors in the Commercial Vehicle (CV) segment in Thailand and Malaysia. In Malaysia, Proton grew significantly in 2020, an increase of 4.4% Year-over-year (YoY). The trend of Low-cost Green Car (LCGC) and Electric Vehicle (EV) development will penetrate further in ASEAN. For example, Thailand aims to become an EV hub by 2025. Thailand’s National EV Roadmap targets for xEV production to reach 30% of total production in 2030. Similarly, the Indonesian Government promotes LCGCs and offers income tax incentives (up to 20 years of full corporate tax exemption) are likely to bring production attractiveness to the automotive market. This study assesses the automotive market in key ASEAN countries, with focus on Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It provides the automotive market snapshot in these 3 ASEAN countries. Each country snapshot covers the Total Industry Volume (TIV), in the historical period (2016–2020) and the forecast period (2021–2025). This research includes segmentation breakdown in 2020, such as vehicle segment, key Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and market share. In addition, it highlights 5 key trends and overall impact levels that will influence the automotive market in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia in 2021, respectively. Author: Ming Lih Chan
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Predecessor NA
Author Ming Lih Chan
Industries Automotive
WIP Number PB88-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9673-A6,9800-A6,9AF6-A6