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New Product Launches and Competitive Intensity will Accelerate the Future Growth Potential of Electric Commercial Vehicles
24-Dec-2021
Europe
Market Research
PC25-01-00-00-00
AU02275-EU-MT_26145
Countries across the world are shifting towards a low-carbon economy. In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure.
Electric vehicles are gaining traction as part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market matures for EV adoption and more EVs become available for commercial sale. In Europe, the battery-electric trucks in the medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) segments will reach 28,648 and 160,561 units by 2030, respectively. Battery-electric truck penetration will be the highest in Germany, with 48.2% in the MD segment and 43% in the HD segment.
The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market across the following sectors:
• MD CVs: 6 to 16 tons gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR)
• HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR
Government incentives and programs, like the electro-mobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure.
OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. The battery's energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better on power density and durability. The progressive expansion of no-emission zones in cities and the diesel vehicle ban in Europe will affect diesel trucks in future.
Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift towards electric vehicles. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments.
Author: Saideep Sudhakar
Main Findings
Top Transformational Shifts Shaping the Future of Electric Trucks (2020–2030)
Electric MD-HD Trucks—Regional Contribution
Snapshot of the Top 5 Markets—2030
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on Electric Trucks
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Research Scope
Market Segmentation
Key Competitors for European Electric Trucks
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, Europe
Growth Drivers for Electric Truck Adoption
Growth Restraints for Electric Truck Adoption
Main Forecast Criteria
MD-HD Sales Forecast by Region, Europe
Unit Shipment Forecast for MD-HD Electric Trucks, Europe
Main Factors Impacting Electrification
Analysis of Legislative Factors
Analysis of Economic Factors
Analysis of Economic Factors (continued)
Analysis of Infrastructure Factors
Analysis of Technological Factors
LEZs, Europe
Electrification Use Cases for MD Electric Trucks
Electrification Use Cases for HD Electric Trucks
Key OEM Electrification Application Focus
Sales and Electric Vehicle Penetration Forecast—MD Trucks, Europe
Powertrain Split Forecast—MD Trucks, Europe
Revenue Forecast by MD Electric Trucks, Europe
Sales and Electric Vehicle Penetration Forecast—HD Trucks, Europe
Powertrain Split Forecast for HD Trucks, Europe
Revenue Forecast for HD Electric Trucks, Europe
Anticipated Electric MD and HD Truck Launches by Key OEMs
OEM—Motor Type Mapping, Europe
Key OEM Models—Battery Capacity Mapping, Europe
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, Germany
Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, Germany
Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, Germany
Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, Germany
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, France
Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, France
Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, France
Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, France
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, Italy
Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, Italy
Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, Italy
Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, Italy
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, Spain
Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, Spain
Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, Spain
Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, Spain
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, United Kingdom
Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, United Kingdom
Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, United Kingdom
Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, United Kingdom
TCO Analysis—Key Assumptions
Total Cost of Ownership—HD Long Haul, Europe
Total Cost of Ownership—Battery Price Variation
Total Cost of Ownership—Charging Price Variation
Total Cost of Ownership—Diesel Price Variation
Growth Opportunity 1—Expanding the Electric Truck Product Portfolio to Compete with Conventional Fuel-powered Trucks
Growth Opportunity 1—Expanding the Electric Truck Product Portfolio to Compete with Conventional Fuel-powered Trucks (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—New Players to Compete with Traditional OEMs due to Low Entry Barriers to the Electric Truck Space
Growth Opportunity 2—New Players to Compete with Traditional OEMs due to Low Entry Barriers to the Electric Truck Space (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3—Advanced Electrification Concepts to Widen the Product Portfolio
Growth Opportunity 3—Advanced Electrification Concepts to Widen the Product Portfolio (continued)
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
Your Next Steps
Why Frost, Why Now?
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
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| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| Author | Saideep Sudhakar |
| GPS Codes | 9800-A6,9807-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6 |
| Industries | Automotive |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | PC25-01-00-00-00 |
European Medium-duty and Heavy-duty Electric Trucks Growth Opportunities
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