European Medium-duty and Heavy-duty Electric Trucks Growth Opportunities

European Medium-duty and Heavy-duty Electric Trucks Growth Opportunities

New Product Launches and Competitive Intensity will Accelerate the Future Growth Potential of Electric Commercial Vehicles

RELEASE DATE
24-Dec-2021
REGION
Europe
Research Code: PC25-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02275-EU-MT_26145
$4,950.00
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Description

Countries across the world are shifting towards a low-carbon economy. In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure.

Electric vehicles are gaining traction as part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market matures for EV adoption and more EVs become available for commercial sale. In Europe, the battery-electric trucks in the medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) segments will reach 28,648 and 160,561 units by 2030, respectively. Battery-electric truck penetration will be the highest in Germany, with 48.2% in the MD segment and 43% in the HD segment.

The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market across the following sectors:
• MD CVs: 6 to 16 tons gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR)
• HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR

Government incentives and programs, like the electro-mobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure.

OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. The battery's energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better on power density and durability. The progressive expansion of no-emission zones in cities and the diesel vehicle ban in Europe will affect diesel trucks in future.

Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift towards electric vehicles. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments.

Author: Saideep Sudhakar

Table of Contents

Main Findings

Top Transformational Shifts Shaping the Future of Electric Trucks (2020–2030)

Electric MD-HD Trucks—Regional Contribution

Snapshot of the Top 5 Markets—2030

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on Electric Trucks

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Research Scope

Market Segmentation

Key Competitors for European Electric Trucks

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, Europe

Growth Drivers for Electric Truck Adoption

Growth Restraints for Electric Truck Adoption

Main Forecast Criteria

MD-HD Sales Forecast by Region, Europe

Unit Shipment Forecast for MD-HD Electric Trucks, Europe

Main Factors Impacting Electrification

Analysis of Legislative Factors

Analysis of Economic Factors

Analysis of Economic Factors (continued)

Analysis of Infrastructure Factors

Analysis of Technological Factors

LEZs, Europe

Electrification Use Cases for MD Electric Trucks

Electrification Use Cases for HD Electric Trucks

Key OEM Electrification Application Focus

Sales and Electric Vehicle Penetration Forecast—MD Trucks, Europe

Powertrain Split Forecast—MD Trucks, Europe

Revenue Forecast by MD Electric Trucks, Europe

Sales and Electric Vehicle Penetration Forecast—HD Trucks, Europe

Powertrain Split Forecast for HD Trucks, Europe

Revenue Forecast for HD Electric Trucks, Europe

Anticipated Electric MD and HD Truck Launches by Key OEMs

OEM—Motor Type Mapping, Europe

Key OEM Models—Battery Capacity Mapping, Europe

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, Germany

Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, Germany

Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, Germany

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, Germany

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, France

Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, France

Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, France

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, France

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, Italy

Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, Italy

Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, Italy

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, Italy

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, Spain

Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, Spain

Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, Spain

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, Spain

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Trucks, United Kingdom

Unit Shipment Forecast—MD Electric Trucks, United Kingdom

Unit Shipment Forecast—HD Electric Trucks, United Kingdom

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis—Electric Trucks, United Kingdom

TCO Analysis—Key Assumptions

Total Cost of Ownership—HD Long Haul, Europe

Total Cost of Ownership—Battery Price Variation

Total Cost of Ownership—Charging Price Variation

Total Cost of Ownership—Diesel Price Variation

Growth Opportunity 1—Expanding the Electric Truck Product Portfolio to Compete with Conventional Fuel-powered Trucks

Growth Opportunity 1—Expanding the Electric Truck Product Portfolio to Compete with Conventional Fuel-powered Trucks (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2—New Players to Compete with Traditional OEMs due to Low Entry Barriers to the Electric Truck Space

Growth Opportunity 2—New Players to Compete with Traditional OEMs due to Low Entry Barriers to the Electric Truck Space (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3—Advanced Electrification Concepts to Widen the Product Portfolio

Growth Opportunity 3—Advanced Electrification Concepts to Widen the Product Portfolio (continued)

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

Related Research
Countries across the world are shifting towards a low-carbon economy. In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure. Electric vehicles are gaining traction as part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market matures for EV adoption and more EVs become available for commercial sale. In Europe, the battery-electric trucks in the medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) segments will reach 28,648 and 160,561 units by 2030, respectively. Battery-electric truck penetration will be the highest in Germany, with 48.2% in the MD segment and 43% in the HD segment. The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market across the following sectors: • MD CVs: 6 to 16 tons gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) • HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR Government incentives and programs, like the electro-mobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure. OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. The battery's energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better on power density and durability. The progressive expansion of no-emission zones in cities and the diesel vehicle ban in Europe will affect diesel trucks in future. Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift towards electric vehicles. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments. Author: Saideep Sudhakar
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Saideep Sudhakar
Industries Automotive
WIP Number PC25-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9807-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6