USD
GBP 
CNY 
EUR 
INR 
JPY 
MYR 
ZAR 
KRW 
THB 
European OEM Strategies for Passenger Car CO2 Emissions Compliance Towards 2030
The Tipping Point for OEMs to Move to Zero-emissions Driving as a Means for Compliance is Fast Approaching
07-Sep-2022
Europe
Market Research
MG9C-01-00-00-00
AU02397-EU-MR_26876
$2,450.00
Special Price $1,837.50 save 25 %
Industry-wide fleet average CO2 emission targets for 2025 have been set to be 15% lower than 2020 levels, while 2030 levels will be 37.5% lower than 2020 levels. These targets are more stringent and are for cars only (separate targets are set for LCVs).
Once the focus area for emission reduction, developments in IC engines no longer play an integral role in emissions compliance. Though investment in IC engine development is still beneficial, it is not the primary road to compliance. The availability of flexibilities played a critical role in most OEMs’ compliance in 2020. However, these flexibilities reduce year-on-year, with only eco-innovations continuing to be active while moving towards ZLEV mandates of 15% from 2025 and 35% from 2030.
Most European and American OEMs have increased the sale of PHEVs and BEVs for compliance but Asian OEMs have been late in adopting electric powertrains due to the strong focus on hybridisation. Electrification is fast becoming the de-facto requirement for compliance. All OEMs accelerating electrification, which is showing a higher return on investment from a compliance perspective and will shortly do so from the revenue perspective as well.
Europe has been at the forefront of engine downsizing, which is evident from the high share of direct-injected, turbocharged gasoline engines. Alternate combustion cycles, Atkinson and Miller, are also expected to find increased adoption, with Atkinson Cycle being adopted by OEMs with full hybrids.
With the adoption of diesel powertrains declining in Europe since the dieselgate scandal, mHEVs and FHEVs have stepped up to meet the demand. In the short term, mHEVs are projected to be the leading xEV type and post the highest growth rates. The primary driver for increased xEV adoption was to meet the targets for 2020. The adoption of xEVs however, varies between OEMs, with BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo prioritising PHEVs, while Kia, Renault-Nissan, and Volkswagen focus more on BEVs. Asian OEMs, meanwhile, focus on hybridisation and overall efficiency improvement. With OEMs meeting the targets for 2020 and 2021, it is now clear that maintaining the xEV ratio will suffice until the next set of targets come into effect.
Author: Anjan Hemanth Kumar
Executive Summary
Technology for Improving Fuel Economy and Emissions
Technology Impact on CO2 Compliance
Technology Impact on CO2 Compliance (continued)
CO2 Emission Projection by OEM Towards 2030
Actual Versus Target Compared to xEV Penetration
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the EU and UK Powertrain Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Research Scope
Vehicle Segmentation
Segmentation
Regional Emissions and Testing Procedures
Global Passenger Car Corporate Average Fuel Economy Targets
EU and UK—Emissions Outlook
EU and UK Passenger Car Fleet Average CO2 Targets
Mass-based CO2 Targets by OEM Pool
Technology Roadmap: Powertrain Development Trends
Flexibilities Towards Fleet Average CO2 Emissions
Fleet Average CO2 Emissions by OEM Pool
Impact of WLTP on Fleet Average Emissions
Importance of Technology for Emissions Compliance
Frost & Sullivan—Forecasting Framework
Industry Average Performance
BMW Group
BMW Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
BMW Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Mercedes-Benz Group
Mercedes-Benz Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Mercedes-Benz Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Ford Group
Ford Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Ford Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Honda Group
Honda: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Honda: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Hyundai-Kia Group
Hyundai-Kia Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Hyundai-Kia Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Renault-Nissan Group
Renault-Nissan Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Renault-Nissan Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Stellantis Group
Stellantis: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Stellantis: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Toyota Group
Toyota: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Toyota: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Volkswagen Group
Volkswagen Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Volkswagen Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Volvo Group
Volvo: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
Volvo: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
Growth Opportunity 1: OEM-supplier Partnerships for Electrification
Growth Opportunity 1: OEM-supplier Partnerships for Electrification (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2: Increased Investment in Vehicle Electrification Through xEVs
Growth Opportunity 2: Increased Investment in Vehicle Electrification Through xEVs (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3: Optimising Combustion for Lowering Emissions
Growth Opportunity 3: Optimising Combustion for Lowering Emissions (continued)
Initialisms
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures
- EU CO Emissions Compliance Technology Impact Area, EU and UK, 2021
- Technology Adoption, Passenger Car Industry, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Passenger Car Industry, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Average Emission Targets and Projected Emissions by OEMs, EU and UK, 2021–2030
- Top 10 OEM xEV and EV Share, EU and UK, 2021
- Emissions and Testing Procedures in Key Regions, Global, 2021
- CAFE Norms in Key Regions, Global, 2012–2030
- Emission Standard Implementation Timeline, EU and UK, 2011–2025
- Euro 6 Emission Values, Europe, 2022
- Fleet Average CO Emissions Target by Year, EU and UK, 2010–2030
- Mass-based CO Targets by OEM Pool, EU and UK, 2020
- Automotive Powertrain Trends, Global, 2018–2030
- OEM Pooling and Flexibilities Towards Meeting CO Targets, EU and UK, 2020–2021
- NEDC-based Fleet Average CO Emissions, EU and UK, 2020
- Percentage Difference Between WLTP and NEDC Fleet Average CO Emissions, EU and UK, 2020
- Impact of Technology on Compliance, EU and UK, 2020
- Comparison of Industry Average Emission Targets and Actual Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Scenario Analysis of BMW Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, BMW Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, BMW Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Mercedes-Benz Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Mercedes-Benz Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Mercedes-Benz Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Ford Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Ford Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Ford Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Honda’s Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Honda, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Honda, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Hyundai-Kia Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Hyundai-Kia Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Hyundai-Kia Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Renault-Nissan Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Renault-Nissan Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Renault-Nissan Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Stellantis’ Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Stellantis, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Stellantis, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Toyota’s Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Toyota, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Toyota, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Volkswagen Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Volkswagen Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Volkswagen Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030
- Scenario Analysis of Volvo Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030
- Technology Adoption, Volvo, EU and UK, 2020–2025
- Technology Adoption, Volvo, EU and UK, 2025–2030
Speak directly with our analytics experts for tailored recommendations.
Recent related Powertrain research
06 Jun 2023 | North America | Market Outlook
2023 Prediction of Global Electric Car Growth Outlook
This Frost & Sullivan study provides an outlook for the electric vehicle industry based on the latest industry data; it provides an outline of current trends and an in-depth analysis of future developments, as well as a breakdown of the main stakeholders in the sector and their performance. EV sal...
23 Mar 2023 | North America | Market Research
Strategic Analysis of WBG Semiconductors in Power Electronics Applications for EVs, Forecast to 2030
The increasing use of electric vehicles (EVs) worldwide boosts power semiconductor demand. Government laws and subsidies, original equipment manufacturers' (OEMs') dedication to net zero emissions, and sustainability goals accelerate EV penetration in the vehicle industry. This study focuses on wide...
30 Dec 2022 | North America | Market Research
Opportunity Analysis of EV Digital Products and Services
The electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly and impacting the energy market and associated services. As OEMs integrate more software-defined solutions into EVs, a potential market for digital products and services (P&S) exists. EV-dedicated digital P&S allows key participants to continuously...
23 Dec 2022 | Latin America | Market Research
Electric Vehicle Competitive Landscape for Key North American Vehicle Manufacturers & xEV Component Strategies
Stringent emission regulations boost the growth of the emerging EV industry. Supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 and the Russo-Ukrainian war have led to a surge in commodity prices, which affected the global automotive value chain. In addition, economic sanctions between multiple countries ...
23 Dec 2022 | Europe | Customer Research
Voice of the Customer: Electric Vehicle & Powertrain Services and Features, 2022
Europe continues to be the leading market for electric vehicles. BEVs are considered ‘clean’ innovations where tech gadgets render high-tech attributes when compared to ICEs. Frost & Sullivan assessed new customer attitudes and preferences for alternative vehicles and powertrains by vehicle segm...
Purchase includes:
- Report download
- Growth Dialog™ with our experts
Growth Dialog™
A tailored session with you where we identify the:- Strategic Imperatives
- Growth Opportunities
- Best Practices
- Companies to Action
Impacting your company's future growth potential.
| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| Author | Bharath Srinivasan |
| Industries | Automotive |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Keyword 1 | PHEV |
| Keyword 2 | BEV |
| Keyword 3 | OEM Strategies for Passenger Car CO2 Emissions |
| List of Charts and Figures | EU CO Emissions Compliance Technology Impact Area, EU and UK, 2021~ Technology Adoption, Passenger Car Industry, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Passenger Car Industry, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Average Emission Targets and Projected Emissions by OEMs, EU and UK, 2021–2030~ Top 10 OEM xEV and EV Share, EU and UK, 2021~ Emissions and Testing Procedures in Key Regions, Global, 2021~ CAFE Norms in Key Regions, Global, 2012–2030~ Emission Standard Implementation Timeline, EU and UK, 2011–2025~ Euro 6 Emission Values, Europe, 2022~ Fleet Average CO Emissions Target by Year, EU and UK, 2010–2030~ Mass-based CO Targets by OEM Pool, EU and UK, 2020~ Automotive Powertrain Trends, Global, 2018–2030~ OEM Pooling and Flexibilities Towards Meeting CO Targets, EU and UK, 2020–2021~ NEDC-based Fleet Average CO Emissions, EU and UK, 2020~ Percentage Difference Between WLTP and NEDC Fleet Average CO Emissions, EU and UK, 2020~ Impact of Technology on Compliance, EU and UK, 2020~ Comparison of Industry Average Emission Targets and Actual Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Scenario Analysis of BMW Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, BMW Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, BMW Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Mercedes-Benz Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Mercedes-Benz Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Mercedes-Benz Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Ford Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Ford Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Ford Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Honda’s Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Honda, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Honda, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Hyundai-Kia Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Hyundai-Kia Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Hyundai-Kia Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Renault-Nissan Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Renault-Nissan Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Renault-Nissan Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Stellantis’ Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Stellantis, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Stellantis, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Toyota’s Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Toyota, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Toyota, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Volkswagen Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Volkswagen Group, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Volkswagen Group, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ Scenario Analysis of Volvo Emissions, EU and UK, 2020–2030~ Technology Adoption, Volvo, EU and UK, 2020–2025~ Technology Adoption, Volvo, EU and UK, 2025–2030~ |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | MG9C-01-00-00-00 |