Geopolitical Chaos Disrupts the Global Aircraft Market, 2019–2030

Description

The global aircraft market saw a year of turmoil in 2019 as the Boeing 737 MAX saga disrupted production from the commercial aircraft perspective. 2020 has dwarfed the woes of the previous year as the COVID-19 pandemic has thrashed through every facet of the sector, showing mercy to few. Most evaluations see the industry as a whole recovering in the years to come.

How long will it take and which segments will recover faster?
This study dives into both production and fleet forecasts for all aircraft around the globe. The aim is to provide an inclusive document that encompasses all aircraft being produced and used for civil and military operations, fixed-wing and rotor propelled aircraft; piloted and unmanned aircraft; pleasure and mission flown, as well as commercially and privately owned aircraft.

The geopolitical chaos that followed the COVID-19 pandemic has become a major disruptive factor in the aircraft market. This new scenario has deepened the various challenges the industry was already facing and forced companies to redesign their business strategies for recovery and growth. An economic loss to customers, including airlines, lessors, as well as corporate aircraft clients, translates into cancellations of orders. Several of the OEMs and their suppliers will need to overcome new economic difficulties. Restructuring and job cuts will impact the productivity or even the continuity of several projects and programs.

The first effects of the new reality were major cutbacks in commercial aviation and a drop in demand from travelers, in the face of a health situation still full of uncertainty. Faced with this situation, airlines around the world are reconfiguring the composition of their fleets to accommodate the current scenario by initiating or accelerating the withdrawal of less-efficient and aging aircraft. The trickledown to OEMs and the supply chain is inevitable.

New technologies offer an opportunity for recovery and growth. Several competitors and suppliers are working on developments that will enable them to reduce fuel use and harness electrical power in the aircraft, making intensive use of advanced materials and learning from successful experiences in areas such as mobility and space travel.

General aviation aircraft is a broad market, and there will be a demand for training and sports aircraft. It is evident that UASs have begun to replace traditional aircraft for agricultural and industrial operations and are expected to take over surveillance, and search and rescue operations shortly (to the detriment of the helicopter sector as well).

The emergence of eVTOLs is already disrupting the industry; therefore, several companies in the sector, especially helicopter manufacturers, have assigned resources for the development of this type of aircraft and to not eventually lose market share.